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The research and projection of regional and basin-scale precipitation change adaptable to water problems in Asia.

适应亚洲水问题的区域和流域尺度降水变化研究与预测.

基本信息

批准号：
17310003
负责人：
KIMURA Fujio
金额：
$ 10.97万
依托单位：
University of Tsukuba
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2005
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2005 至 2007
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-17310003/
关键词：
Asia Water cycle Precipitation change Diurnal cycle Mesoscale Meteorology GPS precipitable water Snow cover Cloud resolving numerical model 降水量変動インドネシア雲解像モデルモンゴル

项目摘要

Using two regional atmospheric models, some numerical experiments are performed in order to simulate changes of regional climate and water cycles in some river basins. First, we estimated the effect of global warming on the snow depth in the mountainous areas in Japan. After confirming the accuracy of hindcast simulations of snow depth by the hi-resolved numerical models, a dynamical downscaling is conducted for the future projection by Pseudo-Global-Warming method. This method reduces the uncertainty caused by the interannual variability and excludes the model biases in the present climatology reproduced by each GCM. Seasonal cycle of water balance is also simulated in a river basin in Japan. Second, We also investigated the relation between convective clouds and topography, ie., orography and the surface conditions including anthropogenic modification in Japan, China and Mongolia. The formation mechanism of the convective clouds is clarified. Third, this study focuses on the climatic change in early summer rainfall in East Asia (Mei-yu rainband). The numerical model well reproduces the change in the Mei-yu rainband over Southern China between the 1960s and the 1990s, suggesting that the climatic features of the Mei-yu rainband are well controlled by the climatic change in a large-scale circulation. Similarly, we clarify the regional climate systems around Tibetan Plateau and Mongolia. Finally, we analyzed perceptible water observed by the dense GPS network in Japan and clarified the moisture transport and cloud formation of clouds. Data assimilation of GPS perceptible water was also investigated in order to improve the accuracy of the short-term weather forecast.

利用两个区域大气模式，对区域气候变化和流域水循环变化进行了数值模拟。首先，我们估算了全球变暖对日本山区积雪深度的影响。在验证了高分辨率数值模式对积雪深度后报模拟的准确性后，利用伪全球变暖方法对未来积雪深度进行了动态降尺度预测。这种方法减少了年际变化引起的不确定性，并排除了模式的偏差，在目前的气候再现每个GCM。还模拟了日本一个流域的水量平衡季节循环。其次，我们还研究了对流云与地形的关系，日本、中国和蒙古的地形和地表条件，包括人为改造。阐明了对流云的形成机制。第三，研究东亚初夏降水（梅雨雨带）的气候变化。数值模式较好地模拟了20世纪60 ~ 90年代华南梅雨带的变化，表明华南梅雨带的气候特征受大尺度环流气候变化的控制。同样，我们也阐明了青藏高原和蒙古的区域气候系统。最后，我们分析了在日本密集的GPS网络观测到的可感知的水，并澄清了云的水分输送和云的形成。为了提高短期天气预报的准确性，还研究了GPS可感知水的同化。