The research and projection of regional and basin-scale precipitation change adaptable to water problems in Asia.

适应亚洲水问题的区域和流域尺度降水变化研究与预测.

• 批准号: 17310003
• 负责人: KIMURA Fujio
• 金额: $ 10.97万
• 依托单位: University of Tsukuba
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2005 至 2007
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-17310003/
• 关键词: Asia; Water cycle; Precipitation change; Diurnal cycle; Mesoscale Meteorology; GPS precipitable water; Snow cover; Cloud resolving numerical model; 降水量変動; インドネシア; 雲解像モデル; モンゴル

Using two regional atmospheric models, some numerical experiments are performed in order to simulate changes of regional climate and water cycles in some river basins. First, we estimated the effect of global warming on the snow depth in the mountainous areas in Japan. After confirming the accuracy of hindcast simulations of snow depth by the hi-resolved numerical models, a dynamical downscaling is conducted for the future projection by Pseudo-Global-Warming method. This method reduces the uncertainty caused by the interannual variability and excludes the model biases in the present climatology reproduced by each GCM. Seasonal cycle of water balance is also simulated in a river basin in Japan. Second, We also investigated the relation between convective clouds and topography, ie., orography and the surface conditions including anthropogenic modification in Japan, China and Mongolia. The formation mechanism of the convective clouds is clarified. Third, this study focuses on the climatic change in early summer rainfall in East Asia (Mei-yu rainband). The numerical model well reproduces the change in the Mei-yu rainband over Southern China between the 1960s and the 1990s, suggesting that the climatic features of the Mei-yu rainband are well controlled by the climatic change in a large-scale circulation. Similarly, we clarify the regional climate systems around Tibetan Plateau and Mongolia. Finally, we analyzed perceptible water observed by the dense GPS network in Japan and clarified the moisture transport and cloud formation of clouds. Data assimilation of GPS perceptible water was also investigated in order to improve the accuracy of the short-term weather forecast.

使用两个区域大气模型，进行了一些数值实验，以模拟某些河流盆地中区域气候和水周期的变化。首先，我们估计了全球变暖对日本山区降雪深度的影响。在确认了HI分辨数值模型对积雪深度的后广播模拟的准确性之后，通过伪全球助剂方法对未来投影进行了动力学降尺度。该方法降低了由年际变异性引起的不确定性，并排除了每个GCM在当前气候中的模型偏差。日本的河流盆地还模拟了水平衡的季节性周期。其次，我们还研究了对流云与地形之间的关系，即地形和表面条件，包括日本，中国和蒙古的人为修改。对流云的形成机理被阐明。第三，这项研究的重点是东亚初夏降雨的气候变化（Mei-Yu雨带）。数值模型很好地再现了1960年代至1990年代之间中国南部的MEI-YU雨带的变化，这表明MEI-YU雨带的气候特征受到大规模循环中气候变化的很好控制。同样，我们阐明了藏族高原和蒙古周围的区域气候系统。最后，我们分析了日本密集的GPS网络观察到的可感知水，并阐明了云的水分传输和云形成。还研究了GPS可感知水的数据同化，以提高短期天气预报的准确性。

项目成果

A composite analysis of diurnal cycle of GPS precipitable water vapor in central Japan during Calm Summer Days

• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-006-0293-x
• 发表时间: 2008-03
• 期刊: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• 影响因子: 3.4
• 作者: G. Li;F. Kimura;T. Sato;D. Huang

Comparison of the WRF and MM5 Models for Simulation of Heavy Rainfall along the Baiu Front

• DOI: 10.2151/sola.2005-051
• 发表时间: 2005
• 期刊: Sola
• 影响因子: 1.9
• 作者: H. Kusaka;A. Crook;J. Dudhia;K. Wada

Impact of extensive irrigation on the formation of cumulus clouds

• DOI: 10.1029/2007gl032435
• 发表时间: 2008-01
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: H. Kawase;T. Yoshikane;M. Hara;F. Kimura;Tomonori Sato;Shingo Ohsawa

Extensive dust outbreaks following the morning inversion breakup in the Taklimakan Desert

• DOI: 10.1029/2005jd005994
• 发表时间: 2005-11
• 期刊: Journal of Geophysical Research
• 作者: N. Tsunematsu;Tomonori Sato;F. Kimura;K. Kai;Y. Kurosaki;T. Nagai;Hongfei Zhou;M. Mikami

Climatic features of the water vapor transport around east Asia and rainfall over Japan in June and September

• DOI: 10.1029/2005gl023665
• 发表时间: 2005-09
• 期刊: Geophysical Research Letters
• 影响因子: 5.2
• 作者: T. Yoshikane;F. Kimura