Catastrophic shifts: the value of knowing more about ecosystem feedbacks

生态系统以意想不到的方式对渐进的变化做出反应。环境不同部分之间的反馈过程可能会使生态系统持续崩溃，导致潜在的不可逆转的生物多样性丧失。然而，目前尚不清楚对反馈的更多了解是否最终会改变环境决策。该项目旨在通过产生新的方法来预测更多了解反馈的经济效益，从而确定反馈何时对环境决策至关重要。结合生态建模和信息价值理论，这些新方法的结果将提供显著和广泛的环境效益，使管理者能够做出明智的决定，并在潜在的生态系统崩溃之前领先一步。

Ecosystems respond to gradual change in unexpected ways. Feedback processes between different parts of an environment can perpetuate ecosystem collapse, leading to potentially irreversible biodiversity loss. However, it is unclear if greater knowledge of feedbacks will ultimately change environmental decisions. The project aims to identify when feedbacks matter for environmental decisions, by generating new methods that predict the economic benefit of knowing more about feedbacks. Combining ecological modelling and value-of-information theory, the outcomes of these novel methods will provide significant and broad environmental benefits, by enabling managers to make informed decisions and stay one step ahead of potential ecosystem collapse.