BerryPredictor: Improving harvest forecasts, yield predictions and crop productivity by monitoring and optimising zonal phytoclimates in covered strawberry production

消费者和零售商对英国种植的优质草莓的需求不断增加，随着零售商青睐英国产品，这一需求将在英国退欧后进一步增加。目前，英国消费的草莓中约有30%(Defra)是进口的，因此在本土种植的季节，有一个很好的机会取代这些通常是劣质的进口草莓，提振英国经济。然而，在多变和具有挑战性的生长季节实现持续的高产量和高质量是困难的，如果英国水果生产要优化以满足市场需求，并减少进口，就需要新的不断增长的创新。在典型的覆盖台式生产系统中，植物产量和浆果品质有很大的差异，但其原因尚不完全清楚，影响的大小也没有得到令人满意的量化，因此无法管理或预测。这种变异性扰乱了种植者为制定营销策略而预测产量的最大努力，而不准确的预测会导致供应不足或过剩，需要从英国以外的地方购买或销毁水果，这两种做法的成本都非常高。我们将开发新的软果种植策略，通过提高对如何在整个种植区优化单株表现的理解来开发新的软果种植策略。我们将改进最近开发的水果收获和成熟模型，纳入高分辨率、卫星派生的天气输入，并将使用数据馈送为种植者的多隧道通风策略提供信息，以更好地控制生长条件。将使用一款新的应用程序捕获不同的成熟率和产量，并开发算法并将其嵌入基于云的BerryPredictor工具中，该工具将使种植者能够以比目前更高的精确度和精确度来预测整个种植区的产量。BerryPredictor还将首次为POS和英国种植者提供实时准确的产量预测概况。大部分研发工作将在NIAB节水技术(WET)中心进行，这是一个由行业资助的软果精准种植示范和KE中心，其任务是展示软果种植的最新创新，并促进我们IUK和行业资助项目的项目成果的商业化。BGG商业种植者将提供天气数据为模型提供信息，并将产量数据提供给Ground-Truth BerryPredictor。项目产出将惠及英国种植者(产量、溢价、进口替代品)、POS(更好的产品，具有更高的声誉、可靠性和更好的适销性)、超市和消费者(美味的、营养丰富的英国种植的水果)以及更广泛的社会(可持续集约化)。

There is increasing consumer and retailer demand for high-quality UK-grown strawberries, and this will increase further post-BREXIT as retailers favour British produce. Currently, c. 30% (Defra) of strawberries consumed in the UK are imported, and so there is a great opportunity to displace these, often inferior, imports during the home-grown season and boost the UK economy. However, achieving consistently high yields and quality across variable and challenging growing seasons is difficult, and new growing innovations are needed if UK fruit production is to be optimised to meet market demand, and imports reduced. There is much variability in plant yield and berry quality over a typical covered table-top production system, but the reasons for this are not fully understood and the magnitude of the effect has not been satisfactorily quantified, and so it cannot be managed or predicted. This variability confounds growers' best efforts to forecast yields to inform marketing strategies, and inaccurate forecasts lead to under-supply or to surpluses, necessitating purchases from outside the UK or fruit destruction, both of which are very costly. We will develop new soft fruit growing strategies from an improved understanding of how to optimise individual plant performance across the growing area. We will refine recently-developed fruit harvest and ripening models by incorporating high resolution, satellite-derived weather inputs, and data feeds will be used to inform growers' polytunnel venting strategies to better control growing conditions. Variable ripening rates and yields will be captured using a new app, and algorithms will be developed and embedded in a cloud-based BerryPredictor tool that will enable growers to forecast yields with much greater accuracy and precision than currently possible, across the entire cropping area. BerryPredictor will also provide POs and UK growers with access to real-time accurate yield prediction profiles for the first time. The majority of the R&D work will be carried out at the NIAB Water Efficient Technologies (WET) Centre, an industry-funded soft fruit precision growing demonstration and KE centre, the remit of which is to showcase the latest innovations in soft fruit growing, and promote the commercialisation of project outputs from our IUK and industry-funded projects. BGG commercial growers will provide weather data to inform the models, and yield data to ground-truth BerryPredictor. Project outputs will benefit UK growers (yield, premium price, import substitution), POs (better product with enhanced reputation, reliability and improved marketability), supermarkets and consumers (flavoursome, phytonutritious UK-grown fruit) and wider society (sustainable intensification).