Will an improved land surface model enhance seasonal prediction of drought?

该项目旨在提高季节性干旱的可预测性，季节性干旱在澳大利亚农村造成重大社会经济损失。预测干旱的能力，特别是其对土地的影响，目前受到预测模型技能较低的限制。利用新奇的观测，该项目预计将量化澳大利亚农业土地对季节性干旱的脆弱性。然后，新的知识将被用于修改气象局季节性预报系统中的陆地过程，以更好地反映澳大利亚的情况。该项目预计将改善对严重影响干旱的预测，这对减轻社会经济风险至关重要，并应有利于农业和其他行业的决策。

This project aims to increase the predictability of seasonal droughts that cause major socio-economic losses in rural Australia. The capacity to predict drought, and in particular its impacts on the land, is currently limited by the low skill of forecast models. Using novel observations, the project expects to quantify the vulnerability of Australian agricultural lands to seasonal droughts. The new knowledge will then be used to modify land processes in the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal prediction system to better reflect Australian conditions. This project is expected to improve forecasts of high impact droughts, crucial to mitigate socio-economic risks, and should benefit decision-making in agriculture and other industries.