LONGITUDINAL PREDICITON OF MARITAL DISSOLUTION

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This is a resubmission of a proposal to test a model of marital dissolution. To accomplish this aim, a series of five longitudinal followups of four cohorts of married couples is proposed. The first cohort of 79 couples were first studied in 1983; 56 couples were first studied in 1986; 63 were first studied in 1989; and, a group of 120 newlyweds are currently being studied. At Time-1, in all cohorts videotapes of marital conflict, physiological data, and self-report data using questionnaires were obtained. Procedures were standardized across cohorts. There have only been a handful of studies that have attempted the prediction of marital dissolution and none have employed observational or physiological measures. Previous attempts at prediction have produced weak and inconsistent results. Based on a 4-year longitudinal study, data are presented that suggest that the prediction of dissolution is promising. Replication and extension of these results is proposed in a cohort- sequential design. Retention of subject percentages have been about 92%. Time-1 videotapes were coded with 4 observational systems for the 1983 cohort, and the subsequent coding of all the videotapes for all cohorts in proposed. A Guttman-like scale cascade model of marital dissolution is proposed that solves some of the problems associated with short-term longitudinal studies of a relatively rare dichotomous criterion (separation or divorce). A set of theoretically motivated observational and self- report process variables are proposed as predictors of dissolution. The self-report variables are shown to correlate with both observational measures and with the outcome variables of the cascade model. The observational and self-report variables also form a Guttman-like scale. The process variables are (1). The Primary of Negativity and Physiological Linkage; and, (20. Pattern X: Contempt, Defensiveness, Withdrawal, and Physiological Arousal. Questionnaire process variables are: (1) Loneliness; (2) Parallel Lives; (3) Severity of Problems; (4) Flooded by Partner's negative affect; (5) Works problems out alone, not with spouse.