LONGITUDINAL PREDICITON OF MARITAL DISSOLUTION

这是一个重新提交的建议，以测试模型的婚姻 解散 为了实现这一目标，一系列的五个纵向 建议对四组已婚夫妇进行跟踪调查。 第一个队列 1983年首次研究了79对夫妇， 1986年; 1989年首次研究了63对;一组120对新婚夫妇， 目前正在研究。 在时间1，在所有队列中， 冲突、生理数据和使用问卷的自我报告数据 获得了 各队列的程序标准化。 已经 只有少数研究试图预测 婚姻解体，没有人使用观察或生理 措施 以前的预测尝试产生了微弱的， 不一致的结果。 根据一项为期4年的纵向研究， 这表明预测溶解是有希望的。 这些结果的复制和扩展建议在一个队列- 序贯设计 受试者保留率约为92%。 1983年的Time-1录像带用4个观测系统编码 队列，以及随后对所有队列的所有录像带进行编码， 提出了 一个类似Guttman的婚姻解体规模级联模型， 建议解决与短期相关的一些问题， 一个相对罕见的二分标准（分离）的纵向研究 离婚）。 一套理论动机的观察和自我- 报告过程变量被提议作为溶解的预测因子。 的 自我报告的变量被证明与两个观察 措施和级联模型的结果变量。 的 观察和自我报告变量也形成了Guttman样量表。 过程变量为（1）。 消极性与生理性的关系 联系;和（20。 模式X：蔑视、防御、退缩， 生理唤醒。 问卷调查过程变量为：（1） 孤独;（2）平行生活;（3）问题的严重性;（4）被淹没 伴侣的负面影响;（5）独自解决问题，而不是与配偶。

This is a resubmission of a proposal to test a model of marital dissolution. To accomplish this aim, a series of five longitudinal followups of four cohorts of married couples is proposed. The first cohort of 79 couples were first studied in 1983; 56 couples were first studied in 1986; 63 were first studied in 1989; and, a group of 120 newlyweds are currently being studied. At Time-1, in all cohorts videotapes of marital conflict, physiological data, and self-report data using questionnaires were obtained. Procedures were standardized across cohorts. There have only been a handful of studies that have attempted the prediction of marital dissolution and none have employed observational or physiological measures. Previous attempts at prediction have produced weak and inconsistent results. Based on a 4-year longitudinal study, data are presented that suggest that the prediction of dissolution is promising. Replication and extension of these results is proposed in a cohort- sequential design. Retention of subject percentages have been about 92%. Time-1 videotapes were coded with 4 observational systems for the 1983 cohort, and the subsequent coding of all the videotapes for all cohorts in proposed. A Guttman-like scale cascade model of marital dissolution is proposed that solves some of the problems associated with short-term longitudinal studies of a relatively rare dichotomous criterion (separation or divorce). A set of theoretically motivated observational and self- report process variables are proposed as predictors of dissolution. The self-report variables are shown to correlate with both observational measures and with the outcome variables of the cascade model. The observational and self-report variables also form a Guttman-like scale. The process variables are (1). The Primary of Negativity and Physiological Linkage; and, (20. Pattern X: Contempt, Defensiveness, Withdrawal, and Physiological Arousal. Questionnaire process variables are: (1) Loneliness; (2) Parallel Lives; (3) Severity of Problems; (4) Flooded by Partner's negative affect; (5) Works problems out alone, not with spouse.