Agent Based Epidemic Modelling (ABEM)

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CGA simulation is a 3D modelling and simulation studio with experience of applying mathematical modelling processes to 'real world' issues and finding solutions. We have used 'Agent Based Modelling' (ABM) in the simulated towns and cities we have created to test the safety of autonomous vehicle technology and for meddling disaster planning. For this project, we propose to use ABM to model a series of scenarios and individual behaviours (both of individuals and viral spread), with the aim of predicting more specific outcomes than is currently possible using Bayesian modelling (the mathematical modelling that is currently informing the Government's lockdown interventions.)We believe that at this more mature stage of the pandemic ABM modelling can provide much needed specific data, around which to create more targeted interventions and procedures to help move the lockdown agenda forward and plan more cohesively for future pandemics. This is because ABM does not model the entire population as one homogenous, hive minded entity but assumes individual agency of specific people, groups, or in the case of a recent project in which we used ABM, autonomous vehicles. In this previous project, we modelled individual cars as if the owners were visiting friends, going to work or going to the football. In other words, making their own decisions, with individual impacts. This is the approach we would take to modelling behaviours relating to Covid19 spread and it would enable us to tailor targeted interventions and approaches to specific activities like going to the cinema/ football. We could also investigate the role of super spreaders on viral spread and consider how informed interventions could help keep carers safer from infection, whilst caring for the sick.This approach is innovative because it is a much more detail orientated approach to modelling than the current modelling approaches (which tend in the main to be statistical). In conjunction with existing modelling ABEM would help give policy makers one of the tools they need to get society and the economy back up and running before a vaccine is available.Effects of Extension for Impact FundingThe extension will allow us time to improve our viral modeling to incorporate post-code data around virus infection rates and the lockdown strategies in-place to improve the fidelity and realism of our simulation.We will be able to explore specific use-cases around arts and sports and the readmission of audiences from both and R&D and commercial standpoint. It will allow us to move the Technology Readiness Level of ABEM from 5/6 to 7/8 through application to real world problems and working alongside potential customers.