Agent Based Epidemic Modelling (ABEM)

基于代理的流行病建模 (ABEM)

• 批准号: 54412
• 金额: $ 9.55万
• 依托单位: CGA SIMULATION LIMITED
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Feasibility Studies
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=54412
• 关键词: Agent; Based; Epidemic; Modelling; ABEM

CGA simulation is a 3D modelling and simulation studio with experience of applying mathematical modelling processes to 'real world' issues and finding solutions. We have used 'Agent Based Modelling' (ABM) in the simulated towns and cities we have created to test the safety of autonomous vehicle technology and for meddling disaster planning. For this project, we propose to use ABM to model a series of scenarios and individual behaviours (both of individuals and viral spread), with the aim of predicting more specific outcomes than is currently possible using Bayesian modelling (the mathematical modelling that is currently informing the Government's lockdown interventions.)We believe that at this more mature stage of the pandemic ABM modelling can provide much needed specific data, around which to create more targeted interventions and procedures to help move the lockdown agenda forward and plan more cohesively for future pandemics. This is because ABM does not model the entire population as one homogenous, hive minded entity but assumes individual agency of specific people, groups, or in the case of a recent project in which we used ABM, autonomous vehicles. In this previous project, we modelled individual cars as if the owners were visiting friends, going to work or going to the football. In other words, making their own decisions, with individual impacts. This is the approach we would take to modelling behaviours relating to Covid19 spread and it would enable us to tailor targeted interventions and approaches to specific activities like going to the cinema/ football. We could also investigate the role of super spreaders on viral spread and consider how informed interventions could help keep carers safer from infection, whilst caring for the sick.This approach is innovative because it is a much more detail orientated approach to modelling than the current modelling approaches (which tend in the main to be statistical). In conjunction with existing modelling ABEM would help give policy makers one of the tools they need to get society and the economy back up and running before a vaccine is available.Effects of Extension for Impact FundingThe extension will allow us time to improve our viral modeling to incorporate post-code data around virus infection rates and the lockdown strategies in-place to improve the fidelity and realism of our simulation.We will be able to explore specific use-cases around arts and sports and the readmission of audiences from both and R&D and commercial standpoint. It will allow us to move the Technology Readiness Level of ABEM from 5/6 to 7/8 through application to real world problems and working alongside potential customers.

CGA模拟是一个3D建模和模拟工作室，具有将数学建模过程应用于“真实的世界”问题并找到解决方案的经验。我们已经在我们创建的模拟城镇中使用了“基于智能体的建模”（ABM），以测试自动驾驶汽车技术的安全性和干预灾难规划。对于这个项目，我们建议使用ABM来模拟一系列场景和个人行为（包括个人和病毒传播），目的是预测比目前使用贝叶斯模型（目前为政府封锁干预提供信息的数学模型）更具体的结果。我们相信，在大流行病的这个更成熟阶段，ABM模型可以提供急需的具体数据，围绕这些数据制定更有针对性的干预措施和程序，以帮助推进封锁议程，并为未来的大流行病制定更一致的计划。这是因为ABM并没有将整个人口建模为一个同质的、蜂巢式的实体，而是假设特定的人、群体或在我们最近使用ABM的项目中使用的自动驾驶汽车的个体代理。在之前的这个项目中，我们对单个汽车进行建模，就好像车主正在拜访朋友，去上班或去看足球比赛一样。换句话说，做出自己的决定，对个人产生影响。这是我们对Covid 19传播相关行为进行建模的方法，它将使我们能够针对特定活动（如去电影院/足球场）量身定制有针对性的干预措施和方法。我们也可以研究超级传播者在病毒传播中的作用，并考虑如何采取明智的干预措施来帮助护理人员在照顾病人的同时更安全地免受感染。这种方法是创新的，因为它是一种比当前建模方法（主要倾向于统计）更注重细节的建模方法。与现有的模型相结合，ABEM将有助于为政策制定者提供他们需要的工具之一，以便在疫苗可用之前使社会和经济恢复和运行。影响基金延期的影响延期将使我们有时间改进我们的病毒模型，以纳入病毒感染率的邮政编码数据和封锁策略-我们将能够从研发和商业的角度探索围绕艺术和体育的具体用例以及观众的重新接纳。它将使我们能够通过应用于真实的世界问题并与潜在客户一起工作，将ABEM的技术准备水平从5/6提高到7/8。