CAUSAL PROCESSES IN ADOLESCENT ALCOHOL USE

本研究的总体目标是：1）提高我们的 理解成为用户的因果过程，或 （二）改善统计分析方法 纵向数据在探索因果过程。这项工作将 在七个现有的纵向数据集上进行，每个数据集有四个或 从10到25岁的年轻人中收集更多的数据。 具体目标和宗旨如下： 1.测试和复制假设的因果过程使用 行为发生和变化的综合理论框架 三重影响理论（TTI）。具体 关于中介影响、调节效应（包括 和相互因果关系机制（两者之间 预测因子和关于行为经验的反馈效应）。 2.纵向数据分析的方法有以下五种 领域：物质使用的阶段和水平的概念化， 从一个阶段到另一个阶段的进展，处理随时间变化的预测因素， 内隐、处理缺失数据和损耗，以及建模和 测试因果链中的相互作用（适度中介）。 这项拟议的研究很重要，因为它： 范围（10-25）;能够复制大多数 现有理论的重要性;包含更广泛的 预测变量比任何其他单一的研究;包括数据， 多个种族和社会经济上不同的样本;利用 先进的分析技术，以审查调解，主持和 反馈关系;具有足够大的组合样本量， 用于多种分析的分半测试和复制;提供 有机会开发和测试新的建模方法， 波数据;由于存在六个数据，因此具有成本效益 集;并将对未来的预防产生重要影响 方案/研究。

The overall objectives of this research are 1) to improve our understanding of the causal processes involved in becoming a user or abuser of alcohol; and 2) to improve upon methods of statistical analysis of longitudinal data in exploring causal processes. This work will be conducted on seven existing longitudinal data sets, each with four or more waves of data collected from youth between the ages of 10 and 25. The specific objectives and aims are as follows: 1. Test and replicate hypotheses regarding causal processes using the framework of an integrative theory of behavior onset and change developed by these investigators, the Theory of Triadic Influence (TTI). Specific hypotheses concern mediating influences, moderating effects (including of gender and ethnicity) and reciprocal causation mechanisms (both among predictors and regarding feedback effects of behavioral experience). 2. Extend methods of longitudinal data analysis in the following five areas: conceptualizing stages and levels of substance use, modeling of progression from stage to stage, dealing with time-varying predictors and endogeneity, handling missing data and attrition, and modeling and testing interactions in causal chains (moderated mediation). The proposed study is important because it: encompasses the high risk age range (10-25); enables replication of tests and contrasts of the most important of the existing theories; incorporates a wider range of predictor variables than any other single study; includes data from multiple ethnically and socioeconomically diverse samples; utilizes sophisticated analytical techniques to examine mediating, moderating and feedback relationships; has large enough combined sample sizes to enable split-half testing and replication for many analyses; provides opportunities to develop and test new methodology for modeling of multi- wave data; is cost-efficient because of the existence of the six data sets; and will have important implications for future prevention programs/research.