CAUSAL PROCESSES IN ADOLESCENT ALCOHOL USE

这项研究的总体目标是1)改善我们的 了解成为用户或用户所涉及的因果过程 2)改进统计分析方法 在探索因果过程中的纵向数据。这项工作将是 在七个现有的纵向数据集上进行，每个数据集有四个或 从10岁到25岁的年轻人那里收集的数据更多。 具体目标和目的如下： 1.测试和复制关于因果过程的假设 发展了行为开始和改变的综合理论的框架 由这些研究人员提出的三人影响力理论(TTI)。特定的 假设涉及中介影响、调节效果(包括 性别和族裔)和互惠因果机制(两者都在 预测和关于行为经验的反馈效应)。 2.在以下五个方面扩展了纵向数据分析的方法 领域：物质使用的概念化阶段和水平、建模 从一个阶段到另一个阶段，处理时变预测和 内生性、处理丢失的数据和自然损耗，以及建模和 测试因果关系链中的交互作用(缓和调解)。 拟议中的研究之所以重要，是因为它涵盖了高危年龄 范围(10-25)；支持复制大多数测试和对比 现有理论中的重要部分；包含了更广泛的 预测变量比任何其他单一研究都要多；包括来自 多个种族和社会经济多样性的样本；利用 复杂的分析技术，以检查调解、调解和 反馈关系；具有足够大的组合样本量，以实现 用于多种分析的对半测试和复制；提供 有机会开发和测试新的建模方法 WAVE数据；由于存在六个数据，因此具有成本效益 并将对今后的预防工作产生重要影响 计划/研究。

The overall objectives of this research are 1) to improve our understanding of the causal processes involved in becoming a user or abuser of alcohol; and 2) to improve upon methods of statistical analysis of longitudinal data in exploring causal processes. This work will be conducted on seven existing longitudinal data sets, each with four or more waves of data collected from youth between the ages of 10 and 25. The specific objectives and aims are as follows: 1. Test and replicate hypotheses regarding causal processes using the framework of an integrative theory of behavior onset and change developed by these investigators, the Theory of Triadic Influence (TTI). Specific hypotheses concern mediating influences, moderating effects (including of gender and ethnicity) and reciprocal causation mechanisms (both among predictors and regarding feedback effects of behavioral experience). 2. Extend methods of longitudinal data analysis in the following five areas: conceptualizing stages and levels of substance use, modeling of progression from stage to stage, dealing with time-varying predictors and endogeneity, handling missing data and attrition, and modeling and testing interactions in causal chains (moderated mediation). The proposed study is important because it: encompasses the high risk age range (10-25); enables replication of tests and contrasts of the most important of the existing theories; incorporates a wider range of predictor variables than any other single study; includes data from multiple ethnically and socioeconomically diverse samples; utilizes sophisticated analytical techniques to examine mediating, moderating and feedback relationships; has large enough combined sample sizes to enable split-half testing and replication for many analyses; provides opportunities to develop and test new methodology for modeling of multi- wave data; is cost-efficient because of the existence of the six data sets; and will have important implications for future prevention programs/research.