SECONDARY ANALYSIS OF SU CAUSAL PROCESSES

描述：(申请人摘要) SU因果过程的二次分析 本研究的总体目标是：1)提高我们的认识 成为烟草使用者或滥用者的因果过程， 大麻和其他毒品；2)改进统计方法 在探索因果过程中的纵向数据分析。这项工作将 对七个现有的纵向数据集进行，每个数据集有四个或 从10岁到25岁的年轻人那里收集的数据更多。这个 具体目标和目的如下： 1.测试和复制关于因果过程的假设 的行为开始和改变的综合理论的框架 这些研究者，三元影响力理论(TTI)。特定的 假设涉及中介影响、调节效果(包括 性别和族裔)和互惠因果机制(两者均为 预测和关于行为经验的反馈效应)。 2.在以下五个方面扩展了纵向数据分析的方法 领域：物质使用的概念化阶段和水平、建模 从一个阶段到另一个阶段，处理时变预测和 内生性处理缺失数据和损耗，以及建模和测试 因果链中的相互作用(缓和的调解)。 拟议中的研究之所以重要，是因为它涵盖了高危年龄 范围(10-25)；支持复制大多数测试和对比 现有理论的重要组成部分；包含了更广泛的预测因素 变量比任何其他单一研究都多；包括来自多个 种族和社会经济多样化的样本；利用尖端的 检查调解、协调和反馈的分析技术 关系；具有足够大的组合样本量，以实现复杂的 按性别和种族进行分析；提供开发和测试的机会 多波数据建模的新方法；成本效益高，因为 六个数据集的存在；并将产生重要影响 用于未来的预防方案/研究。

DESCRIPTION: (Applicant's Abstract) SECONDARY ANALYSIS OF SU CAUSAL PROCESSES The overall objectives of this research are 1) to improve our understanding of the causal processes involved in becoming a user or abuser of tobacco, marijuana and other drugs; and 2) to improve upon methods of statistical analysis of longitudinal data in exploring causal processes. This work will be conducted on seven existing longitudinal data sets, each with four or more waves of data collected from youth between the ages of 10 and 25. The specific objectives and aims are as follows: 1. Test and replicate hypotheses regarding causal processes using the framework of an integrative theory of behavior onset and change developed by these investigators, the Theory of Triadic Influence (TTI). Specific hypotheses concern mediating influences, moderating effects (including of gender and ethnicity) and reciprocal causation mechanisms (both among predictors and regarding feedback effects of behavioral experience). 2. Extend methods of longitudinal data analysis in the following five areas: conceptualizing stages and levels of substance use, modeling of progression from stage to stage, dealing with time-varying predictors and endogeneity handling missing data and attrition, and modeling and testing interactions in causal chains (moderated mediation). The proposed study is important because it: encompasses the high risk age range (10-25); enables replication of tests and contrasts of the most important of the existing theories; incorporates a wider range of predictor variables than any other single study; includes data from multiple ethnically and socioeconomically diverse samples; utilizes sophisticated analytical techniques to examine mediating, moderating and feedback relationships; has large enough combined sample sizes to enable complex analyses by gender and ethnicity; provides opportunities to develop and test new methodology for modeling of multi-wave data; is cost-efficient because of the existence of the six data sets; and will have important implications for future prevention programs/research.