PUBLIC HLTH IMPACT AND COST EFFECTIVENESS OF HIV INTERV

描述：(申请人摘要) 这项研究旨在促进艾滋病和艾滋病领域的理性决策 药物滥用预防政策。我们建议开发和应用数学 和经济模型来评估干预措施，从而向 稀缺资源的配置。 建议的研究范围从方法开发到应用政策。 分析我们的方法论目标是生成正式的、基于模型的 资源支出和资源分配之间关系的特征 它们对决策者感兴趣的计划绩效衡量标准的影响： 目标是确定社会从艾滋病预防资金中获得了什么。 我们将：1)构造生产函数，以表征 花在改变危险行为上的钱与其行为的关系 改变这一结果；2)开发基于模型的方法来翻译 艾滋病相关干预措施对流行病学的行为影响 有意义的成果衡量标准；3)附加政策成果衡量标准(例如 经济成本、公共健康影响和成本效益) 艾滋病毒干预计划。我们的应用目标建立在此基础上 方法论基础。这些是：4)评估影响和 预防艾滋病毒的具体干预措施的成本效益和5)指导 在相互竞争的预防战略之间分配资源的过程。 我们的最终目标是：6)探索形式分析之间的接口 以及政策过程。具体地说，我们将研究艾滋病和 药物滥用政策制定者了解和管理分析信息和 提交调查结果。与政策制定者合作，我们将制定 最能纳入的评价框架和报告格式 进入政策过程。 我们的方法分为三类：(A)数据分析。我们将分析 并综合有关艾滋病毒危险行为、流行因素和 健康和经济成果。数据将成为每个目标的基础，确保 真实呈现地理环境、风险组和 干预措施。(B)数学建模。我们将开发流行病模型 描述当前情况并评估干预措施的影响。 我们将平衡对疫情的详细描述和对政策的关注 选择。(C)与政策制定者合作。我们将获得常规的 参与决策的个人的投入，以实现价值最大化 我们对政策问题的分析。

DESCRIPTION: (Applicant's Abstract) This study aims to promote reasoned decision making in the realm of AIDS and drug-abuse prevention policy. We propose to develop and apply mathematical and economic models to evaluate interventions and thereby to inform the allocation of scarce resources. The proposed research ranges from methods development to applied policy analysis Our methodological aims are to produce formal, model-based characterizations of the relationship between resource expenditures and their impact on program performance measures of interest to decision makers: the goal is to determine what society gets for its AIDS prevention dollar. We will: 1) construct production functions that characterize the relationship between money spent to modify risky behaviors and the behavior change that results; 2) develop model-based methods for translating the behavioral impact of HIV-related interventions into epidemiologically meaningful outcome measures; 3) attach policy outcome measures (such as economic cost, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness) to models of HIV intervention programs. Our applied objectives build on this methodological foundation. These are: 4) to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of specific interventions to prevent HIV and 5) to guide the process of resource allocation among competing prevention strategies. Our final objective is: 6) to explore the interface between formal analysis and the policy process. Specifically, we will examine how AIDS and drug-abuse policy makers understand and manage analytic information and presentation of findings. Working with policy makers, we will develop evaluation frameworks and reporting formats that can best be incorporated into the policy process. Our methods fall into three categories (a) Data analysis. We will analyze and synthesize extensive data on HIV risk behaviors, epidemic factors, and health and economic outcomes. Data will underlie each aim, assuring realistic representation of geographic settings, risk groups, and interventions. (b) Mathematical modeling. We will develop epidemic models to describe current conditions and to assess the impact of interventions. We will balance detailed portrayal of the epidemic with a focus on policy choices. (c) Collaboration with policy makers. We will obtain the regular input of individuals involved in decision making, to maximize the value of our analyses to policy issues.