Unpaid Debts: Rethinking the Causes and Consequences of Sovereign Default

纵观历史，各国一直未能按时或全额偿还债务。然而，现有的关于此类“主权违约”的研究通常基于量化数据，基于对国家经济利益的合理计算，假定短期原因和后果。奇怪的是，学者和政策制定者没有采用定性的方法来详细或背景地分析这类事件。因此，主权违约的更长期、范围更广的原因和后果仍然被忽视，这扭曲了学术分析，并误导了寻求避免未偿债务的政府。本课题采用历史研究和案例研究相结合的方法，回答两个问题。首先，主权债务违约更长期、范围更广的原因和后果是什么？其次，在多大程度上可以概括历史上未偿债务的非经济原因？因此，本研究项目分为两个部分。首先，我将写一本书，首次对一次主权违约--即英国在1933年后未能偿还来自美国的42亿美元战争贷款--进行历史分析，从而对迄今所有未偿债务提供最细微的描述。我将利用两国60年来的档案资料，并在之前的一项试点研究的基础上，分析从第一次世界大战结束到1978年英国重返纽约债券市场的这段时期。我将特别关注政治、外交和社会变量，以努力表明，对短期经济指标的关注对违约提供了一个不完整、有时具有误导性的解释。我将通过聚焦于有关国家财政的制度变化、跨大西洋关系关键领域的变化以及国家对债务态度的转变来记录这两个国家的违约。其次，我将在我的档案研究基础上，在一家领先的期刊上发表一篇文章，建立并测试两种关于主要经济大国主权违约的新颖和概括的解释。国际关系和经济学文献中的共识观点侧重于对一国经济利益的理性计算，这是不完整的，因为违约可以服务于其他目标。违约有时反映了国内政治利益或国家身份的转变。利用二手资料和公布的数据来研究当时的决策，我将通过研究20世纪主要经济强国未能偿还债务的案例研究来检验我的主张。这些案例研究也将检验我的假设，即政府倾向于淡化违约的长期和更广泛的后果。出于两个原因，现在是进行此类研究的合适时机。首先，它与当代有关债务的辩论高度相关。我的工作将为政策制定者的成本效益计算提供参考，无论他们是在考虑放贷、借款还是违约。我计划在在线和可搜索的数据存储库中共享关键档案数据，以确保金融分析师可以轻松访问原始数据，为自己的工作提供信息。其次，该项目恰逢第一次世界大战结束一百周年，因此受益于人们对世界大战后果和更广泛的战争债务日益增长的兴趣。在这种兴趣日益高涨的基础上，我将鼓励政策制定者、学者和公众重新思考主权违约的正统观点。我的研究项目将把人文和社会科学的学者联系起来，使我成为主权违约跨学科研究的领导者。然后，我将寻求通过引导研究转向更广泛的变量和多种方法来重新设定国际研究议程。AHRC奖学金将培养我的领导技能，使我能够组织国际活动，获得项目管理经验，并扩大我的专业网络。因此，该奖学金将扩大该项目的影响，并支持我的职业发展。

Countries have failed to repay their debts on time or in full throughout history. Existing research concerning such 'sovereign defaults' is typically based on quantitative data, however, which assumes short-term causes and consequences based on rational calculations of states' economic interests. Curiously, scholars and policymakers have not adopted qualitative methods to analyse such events in detail or context. As such, the longer-term and wider-ranging causes and consequences of sovereign default remain neglected, which distorts academic analysis and misleads governments seeking to avoid unpaid debts. My project adopts historical and case study methods to answer two questions. First, what are the longer-term and wider-ranging causes and consequences of sovereign default? Second, to what extent is it possible to generalize the non-economic causes of unpaid debts across history?The research project consequently divides into two parts. First, I will produce a book that presents the first historical analysis of one sovereign default--namely, the UK's failure to repay $4.2bn of war loans from America after 1933--to provide the most nuanced account of any unpaid debt to date. Drawing on six decades of archival material in both countries, and building on an earlier pilot-study, I will analyse the period from the end of World War I to the UK's return to the New York bond market in 1978. I will pay particular attention to political, diplomatic and social variables, in an effort to show that a focus on short-term economic measurements provides an incomplete and sometimes misleading account of default. I will document the default for both states by focusing on institutional changes concerning national finances, variations in key areas of transatlantic relations, and shifting national attitudes towards debt.Second, I will build on my archival research to produce an article in a leading journal that establishes and tests two novel and generalizable explanations for sovereign default by major economic powers. The consensus view within the International Relations and Economics literatures, which focus on rational calculations of a state's economic interests, is incomplete because default can serve other objectives. Defaults sometimes reflect domestic-political interests or shifts in national identities. Using secondary sources and published data to examine decision-making at the time, I will test my claims by examining case studies across the twentieth century where major economic powers failed to pay their debts. These case studies will also test my assumption that states tend to downplay the longer and wider consequences of default.It is an opportune time to conduct such research for two reasons. First, it is highly relevant to contemporary debates about debt. My work will inform the cost-benefit calculations of policymakers, whether they are considering lending, borrowing or defaulting. I plan to share key archival data in online and searchable data repositories to ensure that financial analysts have easy access to raw data to inform their own work. Second, the project coincides with the centenary of the end of WW1, thereby benefiting from growing interest in the consequences of the Great War and war debts more broadly. Building on this rising interest, I will encourage policymakers, scholars, and the public to rethink the orthodoxies of sovereign default. My research project will connect scholars in the humanities and social sciences, establishing me as a leader in the interdisciplinary study of sovereign default. I will then seek to reset the international research agenda by guiding research towards a wider range of variables and multiple methodologies. An AHRC fellowship would develop my leadership skills by allowing me to organise international events, gain project management experience, and expand my professional network. The fellowship would thus amplify the project's impact and support my career development.