Revolt in the 'Square': Spatial Modelling of Urban Stability in Modern Cities New insights and approaches for preventing conflict and violence

“广场”中的反抗：现代城市稳定的空间模型 预防冲突和暴力的新见解和方法

• 批准号: AH/P008240/1
• 负责人: Beverley Milton-Edwards
• 金额: $ 10.2万
• 依托单位: Queen's University Belfast
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=AH%2FP008240%2F1
• 关键词: Revolt; Square; Spatial; Modelling; Urban

Urban revolutions have been envisaged as hybrid, unpredictable and somewhat incidental in the political arena. In some cases, political instability, mass protests, riots, revolt erupts as a reaction to a particular event, while in others it gathers momentum over a period of time and following a sequence of progression and acts of dissidence in the public space. This project aims to explore, map and visualise patterns, modes, and state of development of urban unrest in Beirut Martyr Square during three major pretesting events (2006, 2011 & 2015) to develop a Spatial Model of Urban Stability (SMUS). Using five indicators of urban stability that involve socio-economic, political and spatial factors, a 10-point scale of urban unrest will be designed to trace and understand, through time and space, patterns of spatial unrest in Lebanon during this period. The project will reconstruct historical events and narratives and use spatio-temporal analytics to relate frequency of acts of dissidence to the social-political and economic condition of that time. This approach could later be applied to other cities/contexts facing situations of conflict and revolt. Analysis of causes of conflict and its damaging consequences on local communities and their cities are generally presented from a one sided point of view which is governments and authorities in charge of maintaining order and law. But in this work, we aims to bring and present another side of the narrative and other viewpoints of other players witnessing these incidents (NGOs, communities, Political analysts etc) in order to avoid biased analysis and move towards more reliable predictors of stability. The SMUS will enable analysts, decision makers, planners and activist groups to trace and reflect on previous practices, pattern of escalation, time span of revolt or unrest through intelligible visual maps and supporting datasets. The project will also enable policy makers to consider the economical and physical disturbing effects of such patterns and actions of unrest not only on the city's future development, but on the local communities living facing massive drop in providing minimal infrastructure services e.g. waste management problems. We plan to run interdisciplinary and interactive workshops in Beirut and Belfast to bring together a multidisciplinary team including the humanities and social sciences. This project seeks to generate data that can enable governing authorities as well as non-governmental actors to engage in conflict prevention to prioritize a systematic approach to the collection of information on how urban spaces such as public Squares becomes sites of conflict from protest. The project will allow such information to inform policies and support community stakeholders to an understanding of what might be done to allow protest but prevent conflict in such important public spaces. The project will explain indicators of unrest and the viability of statistical information derived from credible governmental/international agencies and independent NGOs in Beirut, along with spatial patterns of movements and occupation. This will enable unrest actions to be verified and analysed in line with changing political situations in the pilot case study city. This project will be supported and facilitated through a series of workshops and focus groups, visual displays and a conference to effectively communicate the findings to policymakers and maximise the potential for impact, through advocacy for the adoption of implementable measures that increase opportunities for protest without conflict.

城市革命被设想为混合的、不可预测的、在政治竞技场中有点偶然的。在某些情况下，政治不稳定、大规模抗议、骚乱、叛乱爆发是对特定事件的反应，而在另一些情况下，它在一段时间内积聚势头，并在公共空间中出现一系列进展和持不同政见行为。该项目旨在探索、绘制和可视化贝鲁特烈士广场三次重大预测试活动（2006年、2011年和2015年）期间城市动荡的模式、模式和发展状态，以开发城市稳定性空间模型（SMUS）。将利用涉及社会经济、政治和空间因素的五个城市稳定指标，设计一个10点的城市动乱量表，以通过时间和空间追踪和了解这一期间黎巴嫩的空间动乱模式。该项目将重建历史事件和叙述，并使用时空分析将持不同政见者的行为频率与当时的社会政治和经济状况联系起来。这一办法以后可适用于面临冲突和叛乱局势的其他城市/情况。对冲突原因及其对当地社区及其城市的破坏性后果的分析，一般都是从政府和负责维持秩序和法律的当局这一片面的角度提出的。但在这项工作中，我们的目标是带来和呈现叙述的另一面以及目睹这些事件的其他参与者（非政府组织，社区，政治分析家等）的其他观点，以避免偏见分析，并走向更可靠的稳定预测。SMUS将使分析师、决策者、规划者和活动家团体能够通过清晰的视觉地图和支持数据集来跟踪和反思以前的做法、升级模式、叛乱或动乱的时间跨度。该项目还将使政策制定者能够考虑这种动乱模式和行动对城市未来发展的经济和物质干扰影响，以及对当地社区生活的影响，这些社区面临着提供最低限度基础设施服务（例如废物管理问题）的大幅度下降。我们计划在贝鲁特和贝尔法斯特举办跨学科和互动研讨会，汇集一个包括人文和社会科学在内的多学科团队。该项目旨在生成数据，使管理当局和非政府行为体能够参与预防冲突，优先采用系统方法收集关于公共广场等城市空间如何因抗议而成为冲突地点的信息。该项目将使这些信息能够为政策提供信息，并支持社区利益攸关方了解可以采取哪些措施来允许抗议，但防止在这些重要的公共场所发生冲突。该项目将解释动乱的指标和来自贝鲁特可信的政府/国际机构和独立的非政府组织的统计资料的可行性，以及沿着的流动和占领的空间模式。这将使动乱行动能够根据试点案例研究城市不断变化的政治局势得到核实和分析。将通过一系列讲习班和焦点小组、视觉展示和会议支持和促进该项目，以便通过倡导采取可实施的措施，增加在不发生冲突的情况下进行抗议的机会，将调查结果有效地传达给决策者，并最大限度地发挥影响潜力。