Bayesian Estimation of Species Divergence Times Integrating Fossil and Molecular Information

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If our genes accumulate changes over time at a constant rate, the genetic distance between two species, measured by the number of changes accumulated, will be proportional to the time of species divergence. Thus molecules can serve as a clock, keeping time of species divergence by the accumulated changes. If fossil records or geological events can be used to assign an absolute geological time to a species divergence event on the phylogenetic tree, one can convert all calculated genetic distances into absolute geological times. This rationale for molecular clock dating has recently been extended to deal with local variation in evolutionary rate. Critical to molecular dating is the use of fossil information to calibrate the clock. In this project, we will develop statistical models and computer programs to analyze fossil and molecular data to accurately represent and incorporate the information in the fossil record in molecular dating analysis. The new methods will be applied to analyze datasets to estimate divergence times among mammals and to date viral transmission events.