权益分类	功能权益	普通用户	{{item.name}}会员
{{category.name}}	{{benefitItem.name}}

SIMULATION OF IV DRUG INTERVENTIONS ON HIV INFECT/AIDS

HIV 感染/艾滋病静脉药物干预模拟

基本信息

批准号：
3211260
负责人：
Philip C Cooley
金额：
$ 29.41万
依托单位：
RESEARCH TRIANGLE INSTITUTE
依托单位国家：
美国
项目类别：
财政年份：
1987
资助国家：
美国
起止时间：
1987-09-30 至 1992-08-31
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

The major objectives of the proposed research are to: revise the model we have previously developed to incorporate recent advances in knowledge of the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS and changes introduced by both drug prophylaxis/treatment and behavioral change; use the model to explore and expand our understanding of the natural history of HIV/AIDS with particular emphasis on establishing rate of disease progression in IVDUs; and perform a set of policy analyses that would allow HIV prevention approaches to be evaluated in the context of drug treatment and/or HIV counseling programs. Recent use of antivirals and prophylactic measures have altered the incubation and survival functions--crucial parameters for any model that will be used for forecasting HIV and AIDS prevalence. Using data which have become available from the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) under the AIDS Clinical Trials Coordinating Center project, we propose to revise these parameters and make short-term forecasts of HIV seroprevalence and AIDS incidence. Two other sources of data are NIDA's AIDS Targeted Outreach Program and CDC's HIV counseling and Treatment Evaluation Study. Interventions under these program will yield data on changes in drug-use behavior and sexual practices. These changes are especially relevant for intravenous drug abusers. When details on drug abuse behavior are supplied to the revised model, the effect of various intervention strategies on the current epidermic will be evaluated. The HIV/AIDS prevalence model developed by RTI includes the following characteristics: all primary risk groups are represented; risk group size is based on AIDS incidence data that accounts for risk behaviors, thereby estimating only those with high risk behaviors; and contacts that result in infection are treated as endogenous model parameters so that changes in risk group behavior are implicitly measured. As a result, the model avoids the pitfalls of many of the models reported in the literature that treat contact rate a known exogenous parameters.

建议研究的主要目标是：修改模型，先前已经开发出结合知识的最新进展，艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行病学以及两种药物预防/治疗和行为改变;使用模型探索和扩大我们对艾滋病毒/艾滋病自然史的理解，强调确定静脉吸毒者的疾病进展率; 一套政策分析，使艾滋病毒预防方法，在药物治疗和/或艾滋病毒咨询计划的背景下进行评估。最近抗病毒药物和预防措施的使用改变了孵化和存活函数--任何模型的关键参数，将用于预测艾滋病毒和艾滋病的流行率。使用的数据，已经可以从国家过敏研究所获得，艾滋病临床试验协调下的传染病（NIAID）中心项目，我们建议修改这些参数，使短期艾滋病毒血清阳性率和艾滋病发病率的预测。另外两个数据来源是NIDA的艾滋病目标外展计划和 CDC的HIV咨询和治疗评估研究。的干预措施这些项目将产生关于吸毒行为和性行为变化的数据，实践这些变化与静脉给药尤其相关施虐者当药物滥用行为的细节被提供给修订后的模型，各种干预策略对当前将对表皮进行评价。 RTI开发的艾滋病毒/艾滋病流行率模型包括以下内容特征：所有主要风险组都有代表性;风险组规模是基于艾滋病发病率数据，说明了危险行为，从而仅估计那些有高风险行为的人;以及导致感染被视为内源性模型参数，风险群体的行为是隐性测量的。因此，该模型避免了在文献中报道的许多模型的缺陷，接触率是一个已知的外生参数。