SIMULATION OF IV DRUG EFFECTS ON HIV INFECTIONS AND AIDS

拟议研究的主要目标是开发一种 预测艾滋病毒感染流行程度的计算机模型 以及艾滋病毒向艾滋病的发展。一个重要的 该模型的特点将是描绘静脉注射毒品在 艾滋病的传播。尤其是静脉注射吸毒者的影响 关于艾滋病毒向艾滋病传播的异性恋高危人群 检查过了。总而言之，拟议的研究将： O艾滋病毒和艾滋病在总人口中的流行率项目 O项目艾滋病毒流行率和艾滋病的比例 静脉注射吸毒者的个案 O项目因使用静脉注射药物而导致的新感染人数 O预测受感染的异性恋人口的规模 O在异性恋高危人群中规划新的艾滋病毒感染 是由静脉注射吸毒者传播的。 一般来说，疾病的传播特征是高度 因此，非线性和结果是违反直觉的。识别 管理艾滋病流行的适当政策在以下方面至关重要 这一次。然而，对现有艾滋病模型的依赖被发现 在文学上是不合适的。主要原因是很多人 的模型和/或模型参数与历史相关联 行为模式。因此，它们不能直接说明： O所有主要传播途径，即同性恋者 接触、静脉注射毒品和异性接触 O传输中断与控制之间的联系 诸如教育宣传方案或疫苗和 治疗方案 O影响的主要风险群体特征行为 传输 O观察到的影响行为改变的趋势 变速箱。 拟议的计算机模型将考虑到上述所有因素。

The major objective of the proposed research is to develop a computer model that predicts the prevalence of the HIV infection and the progression of HIV to the AIDS disease. A significant feature of the model will be to portray the role of IV drug use in the spread of AIDS. In particular, the influence of IV drug users on the spread of HIV to AIDS heterosexual risk groups will be examined. In summary, the proposed research will: o Project HIV and AIDS disease prevalence in the total population o Project the proportion of the HIV prevalence and AIDS disease cases that are IV drug users o Project the number of new infections resulting from IV drug use o Project the size of the infected heterosexual population o Project the new HIV infections in the heterosexual risk group that are spread by IV drug users. Disease transmission characteristics in general are highly nonlinear and as a consequence are counter intuitive. Identifying appropriate policies for managing the AIDS epidemic is critical at this time. However, reliance on existing AIDS models identified in the literature is inappropriate. The major reason is that many of the models and/or model parameters are wedded to historical behavior patterns. As a result, they do not directly account for: o All of the primary transmission routes, i.e., homosexual contact, IV drug use, and heterosexual contact o The linkages between transmission interruption and control strategies such as education awareness programs or vaccines and therapy programs o The major risk group characteristics behavior that influence transmission o Observed trends in behavior modification that are influencing transmission. The proposed computer model will account for all of the above.