SIMULATION OF IV DRUG EFFECTS ON HIV INFECTIONS AND AIDS

拟议研究的主要目标是开发一个 预测艾滋病病毒感染率的计算机模型 以及艾滋病病毒发展为艾滋病的过程。 显著 该模型的特点将是描绘静脉药物使用的作用， 艾滋病的传播。 特别是静脉吸毒者的影响 对艾滋病病毒传播的异性恋高危人群将 考察 总之，拟议的研究将： o项目艾滋病毒和艾滋病在总人口中的流行率 o预测艾滋病毒流行率和艾滋病发病率的比例 静脉吸毒者 o预测因静脉注射毒品而导致的新感染人数 o预测受感染的异性恋人口的规模 预测异性恋风险群体中新的艾滋病毒感染 是由静脉吸毒者传播的 疾病传播的特点一般是高度 非线性，因此是违反直觉的。 识别 适当的艾滋病流行管理政策至关重要， 这次 然而，依靠现有的艾滋病模型确定， 在文学上是不恰当的。 主要原因是， 的模型和/或模型参数都与历史 行为模式 因此，它们不能直接说明： o所有主要传输路径，即，同性恋 接触、静脉注射毒品和异性接触 o传播中断与控制之间的联系 教育宣传方案或疫苗等战略， 治疗程序 o主要风险群体特征影响行为 传输 观察到的影响行为改变的趋势 传输 拟议的计算机模型将考虑到上述所有因素。

The major objective of the proposed research is to develop a computer model that predicts the prevalence of the HIV infection and the progression of HIV to the AIDS disease. A significant feature of the model will be to portray the role of IV drug use in the spread of AIDS. In particular, the influence of IV drug users on the spread of HIV to AIDS heterosexual risk groups will be examined. In summary, the proposed research will: o Project HIV and AIDS disease prevalence in the total population o Project the proportion of the HIV prevalence and AIDS disease cases that are IV drug users o Project the number of new infections resulting from IV drug use o Project the size of the infected heterosexual population o Project the new HIV infections in the heterosexual risk group that are spread by IV drug users. Disease transmission characteristics in general are highly nonlinear and as a consequence are counter intuitive. Identifying appropriate policies for managing the AIDS epidemic is critical at this time. However, reliance on existing AIDS models identified in the literature is inappropriate. The major reason is that many of the models and/or model parameters are wedded to historical behavior patterns. As a result, they do not directly account for: o All of the primary transmission routes, i.e., homosexual contact, IV drug use, and heterosexual contact o The linkages between transmission interruption and control strategies such as education awareness programs or vaccines and therapy programs o The major risk group characteristics behavior that influence transmission o Observed trends in behavior modification that are influencing transmission. The proposed computer model will account for all of the above.