16AGRITECHCAT5: Tools and Technology for Predicting Tomato Glasshouse Production

英国新鲜西红柿的销售额为6.25亿英镑，其中英国生产的西红柿销售额为1.75亿英镑。目前用于预测产量的估计只有30%的时间在10%以内。高估产量会导致昂贵的进口，而低估产量则会因处理过剩水果而造成经济损失。通过提高每周生产预测的准确性，在减少浪费和财务损失以及增加英国销售比例方面有相当大的潜力。我们将开发一种基于玻璃温室的成像系统TomVision，它是全自动的，可以预测未来的生产。提出的科技创新代表了前沿的应用科学和工程，并没有被其他人开发用于温室生产。该联盟将：1)开发一种名为TomVision的成像系统，用于计数水果并确定其成熟度；2)为TomVision开发温室水果成像自动化平台；3)改进数学模型，根据生成的图像数据和未来天气条件（PredictTomPro）预测产量；4)在产品发布之前，在英国和美国的温室中测试和运行系统。我们将提供一个系统，该系统将提高资源利用效率，通过减少浪费来提高生产力，并通过更准确的产量预测来提高种植者的利润。我们预计，通过采用番茄产量，英国每年将获得600万英镑（3万英镑/公顷）农场价值的收入，通过TomVision和PredictTomPro的销售，项目合作伙伴将获得进一步的收入（番茄生产的总销售额为130万英镑/ 1170万英镑/ 2600万英镑）。进入市场的途径将首先通过向其他英国番茄种植者和海外合作伙伴推广，然后向其他英国、欧盟和全球番茄生产商推广，以推进可持续集约化并产生经济影响。拟议的项目符合农业技术催化剂工业研究奖的所有要求，包括持续时间、项目规模、业务参与、RTO领导和资金平衡。NIAB-EMR将作为要求100% FEC的RTO进行研究。

UK sales of fresh tomatoes are valued at £625M with UK production providing £175M worth of these sales. Current estimations used to predict production are within 10% correct only 30% of the time. Over-estimation of production results in costly imports, whilst under-estimation incurs financial losses from the disposal of surplus fruit. There is considerable potential to reduce waste and financial losses, and increase the proportion of UK sales by improving the accuracy of weekly production forecasts. We will develop a glasshouse-based imaging system TomVision that is fully automated to predict future production. The proposed scientific and technological innovations represents leading edge applied science and engineering and have not been developed by others for glasshouse production. The consortium will: 1) develop TomVision, an imaging system to count fruit and determine their ripeness; 2) develop an automated platform for TomVision to image fruit in a glasshouse; 3) refine mathematical models to predict production based on the image data generated and future weather conditions (PredictTomPro); 4) test and run the system in UK and NL glasshouses prior to product launch. We will deliver a system that will lead to greater efficiency in the use of resources, improved productivity from waste reduction and improved grower margins from more accurate production forecasts. We anticipate UK revenue gains of £6M p. a. (£30K/ha) farm gate value by adoption of the outputs and further income to project partners by sales of TomVision and PredictTomPro (£1.3M/£11.7M/£26M UK/NL/W total sales for tomato production). The route to market will be via roll-out to other UK tomato growers and overseas partners in the first instance, then to other UK, EU and worldwide producers of tomato towards advancing sustainable intensification and delivering economic impact. The proposed project meets all the requirements of duration, project size, business involvement and RTO lead and funding balance for an Agri-Tech Catalyst Industrial Research Award.NIAB-EMR will be carrying out their research as a RTO requiring 100% FEC.