16AGRITECHCAT5: Tools and Technology for Predicting Tomato Glasshouse Production

英国新鲜番茄的销售额为6.25亿英镑，其中英国生产的销售额为1.75亿英镑。目前用于预测产量的估计在10%以内，只有30%的时间是正确的。对产量的过高估计导致昂贵的进口，而过低估计则因处理剩余水果而造成财政损失。通过提高每周产量预测的准确性，有相当大的潜力减少浪费和财务损失，并增加英国销售的比例。我们将开发一种基于温室的成像系统TomVision，该系统完全自动化，以预测未来的生产。拟议的科学和技术创新代表了前沿的应用科学和工程，其他人尚未开发用于温室生产。联合体将：1）开发TomVision，一种用于计算水果并确定其成熟度的成像系统; 2）开发TomVision自动化平台，用于对温室中的水果进行成像; 3）根据生成的图像数据和未来天气条件（PredictTomPro）改进数学模型以预测产量; 4）在产品发布之前在英国和荷兰的温室中测试和运行系统。我们将提供一个系统，提高资源利用效率，通过减少废物提高生产力，并通过更准确的生产预测提高种植者的利润。我们预计英国每年的收入将增加600万英镑。通过采用TomVision和PredictTomPro的产量和项目合作伙伴的进一步收入（130万英镑/1170万英镑/2600万英镑英国/荷兰/西方番茄生产总销售额），获得了3万英镑/公顷的农场门值。进入市场的途径将首先通过向其他英国番茄种植者和海外合作伙伴推广，然后向其他英国，欧盟和全球番茄生产商推广，以促进可持续集约化并产生经济影响。拟议的项目符合所有要求的时间，项目规模，业务参与和RTO领导和资金平衡的农业技术催化剂工业研究奖。NIAB-EMR将开展他们的研究作为RTO要求100% FEC。

UK sales of fresh tomatoes are valued at £625M with UK production providing £175M worth of these sales. Current estimations used to predict production are within 10% correct only 30% of the time. Over-estimation of production results in costly imports, whilst under-estimation incurs financial losses from the disposal of surplus fruit. There is considerable potential to reduce waste and financial losses, and increase the proportion of UK sales by improving the accuracy of weekly production forecasts. We will develop a glasshouse-based imaging system TomVision that is fully automated to predict future production. The proposed scientific and technological innovations represents leading edge applied science and engineering and have not been developed by others for glasshouse production. The consortium will: 1) develop TomVision, an imaging system to count fruit and determine their ripeness; 2) develop an automated platform for TomVision to image fruit in a glasshouse; 3) refine mathematical models to predict production based on the image data generated and future weather conditions (PredictTomPro); 4) test and run the system in UK and NL glasshouses prior to product launch. We will deliver a system that will lead to greater efficiency in the use of resources, improved productivity from waste reduction and improved grower margins from more accurate production forecasts. We anticipate UK revenue gains of £6M p. a. (£30K/ha) farm gate value by adoption of the outputs and further income to project partners by sales of TomVision and PredictTomPro (£1.3M/£11.7M/£26M UK/NL/W total sales for tomato production). The route to market will be via roll-out to other UK tomato growers and overseas partners in the first instance, then to other UK, EU and worldwide producers of tomato towards advancing sustainable intensification and delivering economic impact. The proposed project meets all the requirements of duration, project size, business involvement and RTO lead and funding balance for an Agri-Tech Catalyst Industrial Research Award.NIAB-EMR will be carrying out their research as a RTO requiring 100% FEC.