16AGRITECHCAT5: Tools and Technology for Predicting Tomato Glasshouse Production

英国新鲜西红柿的销售额为6.25亿英镑，其中1.75亿英镑来自英国的产量。目前用于预测产量的估计值在10%以内，只有30%的时间是正确的。高估产量会导致昂贵的进口，而低估则会因处理过剩水果而蒙受经济损失。通过提高每周产量预测的准确性，有相当大的潜力减少浪费和财务损失，并提高英国销售的比例。我们将开发一种基于温室的成像系统TomVision，它是完全自动化的，可以预测未来的生产。提出的科技创新是尖端的应用科学和工程，没有人为温室生产而开发。该财团将：1)开发TomVision成像系统，以计算水果数量并确定其成熟度；2)为TomVision开发一个自动化平台，以对温室水果进行图像处理；3)改进数学模型，根据生成的图像数据和未来的天气条件预测产量(PredidicTomPro)；4)在产品发布前，在英国和NL温室测试和运行该系统。我们将提供这样一个系统，它将提高资源使用效率，通过减少废物提高生产率，并通过更准确的产量预测提高种植者的利润率。我们预计通过采用TomVision和PredidicTomPro的销售为项目合作伙伴带来的产量和进一步收入(GB 130万/GB 1170万/GB 2600万UK/NL/W)，英国的收入将增加600万GB p.A.(GB 30K/ha)农场大门价值。进入市场的途径将首先通过向其他英国番茄种植者和海外合作伙伴推出，然后向其他英国、欧盟和世界各地的番茄生产商推广，以推进可持续集约化并产生经济影响。拟议的项目符合农业技术催化剂工业研究奖在持续时间、项目规模、业务参与以及RTO牵头和资金余额方面的所有要求。NIAB-EMR将作为需要100%FEC的RTO进行研究。

UK sales of fresh tomatoes are valued at £625M with UK production providing £175M worth of these sales. Current estimations used to predict production are within 10% correct only 30% of the time. Over-estimation of production results in costly imports, whilst under-estimation incurs financial losses from the disposal of surplus fruit. There is considerable potential to reduce waste and financial losses, and increase the proportion of UK sales by improving the accuracy of weekly production forecasts. We will develop a glasshouse-based imaging system TomVision that is fully automated to predict future production. The proposed scientific and technological innovations represents leading edge applied science and engineering and have not been developed by others for glasshouse production. The consortium will: 1) develop TomVision, an imaging system to count fruit and determine their ripeness; 2) develop an automated platform for TomVision to image fruit in a glasshouse; 3) refine mathematical models to predict production based on the image data generated and future weather conditions (PredictTomPro); 4) test and run the system in UK and NL glasshouses prior to product launch. We will deliver a system that will lead to greater efficiency in the use of resources, improved productivity from waste reduction and improved grower margins from more accurate production forecasts. We anticipate UK revenue gains of £6M p. a. (£30K/ha) farm gate value by adoption of the outputs and further income to project partners by sales of TomVision and PredictTomPro (£1.3M/£11.7M/£26M UK/NL/W total sales for tomato production). The route to market will be via roll-out to other UK tomato growers and overseas partners in the first instance, then to other UK, EU and worldwide producers of tomato towards advancing sustainable intensification and delivering economic impact. The proposed project meets all the requirements of duration, project size, business involvement and RTO lead and funding balance for an Agri-Tech Catalyst Industrial Research Award.NIAB-EMR will be carrying out their research as a RTO requiring 100% FEC.