LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF CHANGING DEMOGRAPHIC BEHAVIOR

拟议的研究将分析不断变化的社会和 社会和个人生活的经济条件 意大利农村人口的人口统计学行为课程 从1865年到1921年。 在此期间，粗出生率 从33下降到21，粗死亡率从21下降到15， 移民流入和流出的比率很高。 与这些巧合的是 人口变化，社区的经济活动从 农村工业和农业中的非工资劳动力到工资劳动力 在这方面，政府已开始对儿童实行义务公共教育。 这些社会和经济条件以及人口行为的变化 大致类似于现代化和人口转型经历 在19世纪和20世纪初， 个世纪 虽然以前的研究仅限于描述 这些重要的过程，整个人口，拟议的研究将 确定和量化死亡时间和死亡率水平的差异 关键人口的生育率下降、生育限制和生育率下降 分组。 这将使我们能够评估的替代解释， 生育率下降，包括与死亡率变化的关系， 移民、同居、工作和工业化。 这项研究是可能的 因为有一个关于19,000个人的独特数据库， 主要研究员在过去四年里收集的数据 这 数据库提供关于出生、婚姻、死亡 移民，移居，同居安排，职业， 收入以容易获得的、机器可读的形式。 以丰富的 美国没有纵向的、个人层面的数据， 英国或法国，这项研究提供了一个不寻常的机会来分析 并解释人口结构的转变 各种人口统计和 统计方法，适用于差异分析， 人口统计学行为，将在研究中使用。

The proposed research will analyze the impact of changing social and economic conditions at the societal level and over the individual life course on the demographic behaviors of the population of a rural Italian community from 1865 to 1921. During this period the crude birth rate declined from 33 to 21, the crude death rate declined from 21 to 15, and rates of in- and out-migration were high. Coincident with these demographic changes, economic activity in the community shifted from non-wage to wage labor in both the rural industrial and agricultural sectors, and compulsory public education for children was introduced. These changes in social and economic conditions and demographic behaviors broadly resemble the modernization and demographic transition experienced by other European populations during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. While previous studies have been limited to the description of these vital processes for entire populations, the proposed research will identify and quantify differentials in the timing and level of mortality declines, birth limitation, and fertility decline for key population subgroups. This will permit us to evaluate alternative explanations of the fertility decline, including relationships to changes in mortality, migration, coresidence, work and industrialization. This study is possible because of the availability of a unique data base on 19,000 individuals assembled by the principal investigator over the past four years. This data base provides longitudinal information on births, marriages, deaths, immigrations, emigrations, coresidential arrangements, occupation, and income in readily accessible, machine-readable form. With a richness of longitudinal, individual-level data not available for the United States, Britain, or France, this study provides an unusual opportunity to analyze and explain the demographic transition. A variety of demographic and statistical methods, appropriate for the analysis of differentials in demographic behaviors, will be employed in the study.