Explaining Very Low Fertility

解释极低的生育率

• 批准号: 7064218
• 负责人: David I KERTZER
• 金额: $ 25.44万
• 依托单位: BROWN UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 2005
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 2005-05-09 至 2008-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/7064218
• 关键词: Europe; Italy; behavioral /social science research tag; clinical research; culture; data collection methodology /evaluation; decision making; family structure /dynamics; female; fertility; geographic difference; human population dynamics; human subject; interpersonal relations; interview; longitudinal human study; mathematical model; mother child interaction; occupations; reproduction; socioeconomics; sociology /anthropology; statistics /biometry; women' s health

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This project employs innovative multidisciplinary methodology and cutting-edge theory to seek a better explanation for very low fertility by focusing on Italy, a country that for the past 15 years has had one of the lowest fertility rates in the world. It aims to benefit population studies methodologically by suggesting strategies for multi-method inference, while offering new approaches to understanding demographic dynamics in post-transition societies. The social, economic, and political importance of such low fertility can hardly be exaggerated, producing rapidly aging populations and apparently unsupportable dependency ratios at the societal level (and the prospect of national-level populations that, barring massive immigration, will rapidly dwindle), while having major implications for people's lives. The Italian case has attracted scholarly attention not only because of its extremely low fertility, but because it so dramatically contradicts the predictions of prevailing theories. Economically, Italy has one of Europe's lowest rates of female labor force participation. Moreover, those areas of Italy with the best social services, including public childcare, are among those with the lowest fertility. Nor is the Italian case explained by the predominant cultural theory, which identifies secularization and individualization as the keys to very low fertility, for Italy is arguably the most family-oriented country in Europe. This study, combining anthropological, sociological, and demographic methods and theory, is based on the belief that, while extremely valuable, survey data alone will not allow scholars to adequately explain very low fertility. It views economic and institutional forces as having effects on individual behavior primarily through the lens of cultural processes, rejecting any simple separation of economic and cultural "variables." Understanding these cultural processes necessitates analysis of local social context, and of how people construct reality, manipulate norms, and the difference between what people say and what they do. Such data can only be obtained through systematic ethnography. Four anthropologists will spend 15 months each doing ethnography focusing on the culture of reproduction in four different Italian cities, two in the north (Bologna, Padua) and two in the south (Naples, Cagliari). Special attention is paid to the impact of parents on their children's fertility decision-making, and to the impact of peers. Each ethnographer will follow a common guide to participant observation, will conduct research both in a working-class and a middle-class neighborhood and employ a common protocol including a life-history matrix. Interviews are to be conducted at each site with 50 women aged 23-42 and with their mothers. In addition, a series of national-level Italian surveys will be examined through longitudinal and multi-level techniques, following a life-course approach. We also examine women's reproductive life courses in conjunction with their work histories, controlling for both individual- and couple-level characteristics, as well as community- and regional-level characteristics, to shed new light on the relationship between women's work and fertility, and on the cultural and community contexts that affect these relationships.

项目描述（由申请人提供）：本项目采用创新的多学科方法和前沿理论，以意大利为研究对象，为极低的生育率寻找更好的解释，意大利在过去15年里一直是世界上生育率最低的国家之一。它的目的是通过提出多方法推理的策略，在方法上使人口研究受益，同时为理解转型后社会的人口动态提供新的途径。如此低的生育率在社会、经济和政治上的重要性很难被夸大，在社会层面上造成人口迅速老龄化和显然无法承受的抚养比率（以及国家层面人口的前景，除非大规模移民，否则将迅速减少），同时对人们的生活产生重大影响。意大利的案例吸引了学术界的注意，不仅因为其极低的生育率，还因为它与主流理论的预测大相径庭。经济上，意大利是欧洲女性劳动力参与率最低的国家之一。此外，意大利那些社会服务（包括公共托儿服务）最好的地区，也是生育率最低的地区之一。主流文化理论认为，世俗化和个体化是生育率极低的关键，因为意大利可以说是欧洲最注重家庭的国家。这项研究结合了人类学、社会学和人口学的方法和理论，它基于这样一种信念，即尽管调查数据非常有价值，但仅凭调查数据无法让学者充分解释极低的生育率。它主要通过文化过程的视角来看待经济和制度力量对个人行为的影响，拒绝任何简单的经济和文化“变量”的分离。要理解这些文化过程，就必须分析当地的社会背景，以及人们如何构建现实、操纵规范，以及人们言行之间的差异。这样的数据只能通过系统的民族志来获得。四名人类学家将分别花15个月的时间在四个不同的意大利城市进行人种学研究，重点关注生殖文化，两个在北部（博洛尼亚、帕多瓦），两个在南部（那不勒斯、卡利亚里）。特别关注父母对子女生育决策的影响，以及同龄人的影响。每个人种学家都将遵循共同的参与观察指南，将在工人阶级和中产阶级社区进行研究，并采用包括生活史矩阵在内的共同协议。每个地点将对50名年龄在23-42岁之间的妇女及其母亲进行访谈。此外，将按照生命过程方法，通过纵向和多层次技术审查一系列意大利国家一级的调查。我们还结合女性的工作经历考察了她们的生育过程，控制了个人和夫妻层面的特征，以及社区和地区层面的特征，从而揭示了女性工作与生育之间的关系，以及影响这些关系的文化和社区背景。