Industrial Doctorate Centre: Urban Sustainability and Resilience

工业博士中心：城市可持续性和恢复力

• 批准号: EP/G037698/1
• 负责人: Marek Ziebart
• 金额: $ 770.27万
• 依托单位: University College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Training Grant
• 财政年份: 2009
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2009 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FG037698%2F1
• 关键词: Industrial; Doctorate; Centre; Urban; Sustainability

Pressure on urban spaces is increasing year on year. At the start of the nineteenth century 3% of the world's population lived in cities, after 2007 more than 50% will do so. The trend presents us with a number of difficult challenges resulting from climate change, population growth, disease and terrorism that, if not met, forebode dreadful consequences for health, social cohesion and economic stability:How to manage and adapt our current urban space and infrastructure to cope with the loading and threats placed on and against them?How to design, engineer, expand and maintain the new class of eco-cities?How to promote these ideas to governments, industry and investment funds?The UK is vulnerable to natural and technological disasters both within its borders and elsewhere in the world. The principal natural disasters affecting the nation are windstorms and floods (both river and coastal), both of which have triggered major losses in recent years. In January 1990, damage due to Winter Storm Daria cost insurers 3.37 billion, making it the UK's most expensive weather event, while in 2007 floods inundated 48,000 homes and 7,300 businesses and cost insurers 3 billion. Biological and technological disasters also have major cost implications, with losses associated with the 2001 Foot and Mouth outbreak reaching 8 billion, and the total cost of the 2006 Buncefield explosion set at 1 billion. Because of the London reinsurance market's (and particularly Lloyd's) central role in reinsuring against natural catastrophes all over the world, the country is also vulnerable to major disasters abroad. For example, the UK reinsurance market's share of the US$60 billion insured losses from Hurricane Katrina (New Orleans) contributed to the country's worst trade deficit on record in August 2005. Looking ahead, by 2080, UK flood losses could be as high as 22 billion, 15 times higher than they are today, while a predicted 20 percent rise in the more powerful winter storms, could see a substantial increase in wind-related losses. On the technological front, the cost to the UK economy of an H5N1 pandemic could be a GDP reduction of five percent or more, while the total cost of a major nuclear accident has been estimated at somewhere between 83 billion and 5.4 trillion. The UK is now firmly within an international marketplace: vulnerabilities arise not only from events and trends within the UK, but also from economic and environmental disasters abroad. Our strongly developed, sophisticated and consumer-focussed urban society has become increasingly complex. Ordinary people, businesses and public services rely upon a deep hierarchy of inter-dependent supply chains and industries in order to function in the way that they do. With this increased complexity has come increased risk and vulnerability. This vulnerability is, in part, exacerbated by population density in urban conglomerations and the resultant pressure upon space. The programme focuses upon two key themes: sustainability and resilience. Sustainability addresses the maintenance of an ecological system (atmosphere, water, the food chain) whilst at the same time enabling human development of the urban environment and the surrounding hinterland. Resilience is a newer concept dealing with the issue of how to mitigate the effects of environmental disasters and terrorism, incorporating seismic and volcanic hazard (earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides), flood risk, the spread and control of disease (water, air and animal borne), security and situational awareness. This includes four key ideas: rapidity (how rapidly a response can be coordinated and put into effect), resourcefulness (the importance of having multiple ways of tackling a problem), redundancy (to better absorb the effect of disasters, over-engineering to protect against failure of system components) and robustness (simple robust engineering: building stuff that stands up irrespective of what is thrown at it.

城市空间的压力逐年增加。在十九世纪开始时，世界上只有3%的人口居住在城市，而在2007年之后，这一比例将超过50%。这一趋势给我们带来了气候变化、人口增长、疾病和恐怖主义带来的一系列严峻挑战，如果不加以应对，就预示着对健康、社会凝聚力和经济稳定的可怕后果：如何管理和调整我们目前的城市空间和基础设施，以科普它们承受的负荷和面临的威胁？如何设计，工程，扩大和维护新的生态城市？如何向政府、行业和投资基金推广这些想法？英国在其境内和世界其他地方都容易受到自然和技术灾害的影响。影响国家的主要自然灾害是风暴和洪水（河流和沿海），这两种灾害近年来都造成了重大损失。1990年1月，冬季风暴达里亚造成的损失使保险公司损失了33.7亿英镑，使其成为英国最昂贵的天气事件，而2007年洪水淹没了48，000所房屋和7，300家企业，保险公司损失了30亿英镑。生物和技术灾害也造成重大的费用问题，2001年口蹄疫爆发造成的损失达80亿美元，2006年邦斯菲尔德爆炸造成的总费用为10亿美元。由于伦敦再保险市场（尤其是劳埃德）在全球自然灾害再保险中的核心作用，英国也容易受到国外重大灾害的影响。例如，英国再保险市场在卡特里娜飓风（新奥尔良）造成的600亿美元保险损失中所占的份额，导致该国在2005年8月出现有记录以来最严重的贸易逆差。展望未来，到2080年，英国的洪水损失可能高达220亿英镑，比今天高出15倍，而预计更强大的冬季风暴将增加20%，可能会导致与风有关的损失大幅增加。在技术方面，H5N1大流行对英国经济的成本可能是GDP减少5%或更多，而重大核事故的总成本估计在830亿至5.4万亿之间。英国现在已经牢牢地融入了国际市场：脆弱性不仅来自英国国内的事件和趋势，也来自国外的经济和环境灾难。我们高度发达、成熟和以消费者为中心的城市社会变得越来越复杂。普通人、企业和公共服务依赖于相互依赖的供应链和行业的深层次等级制度，以便以他们的方式运作。随着复杂性的增加，风险和脆弱性也随之增加。这种脆弱性在一定程度上由于城市密集区的人口密度及其对空间造成的压力而加剧。该方案侧重于两个关键主题：可持续性和复原力。可持续性解决了生态系统（大气，水，食物链）的维护，同时使城市环境和周围腹地的人类发展成为可能。复原力是一个较新的概念，涉及如何减轻环境灾害和恐怖主义的影响，包括地震和火山灾害（地震、海啸、山体滑坡）、洪水风险、疾病（水、空气和动物传播）的传播和控制、安全和对情况的认识。这包括四个关键思想：快速性（协调和实施应对措施的速度）、灵活性（采用多种方法解决问题的重要性）、冗余性（更好地吸收灾害的影响，过度设计以防止系统组件出现故障）和稳健性（简单的稳健性工程：无论遇到什么，都要建造能够屹立不倒的东西。