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In deep water - urban flooding in the 21st century

深水区——21世纪的城市洪水

基本信息

批准号：
EP/G062625/1
负责人：
Grant Wright
金额：
$ 16.73万
依托单位：
Heriot-Watt University
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2009
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2009 至无数据
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FG062625%2F1
关键词：
deep water urban flooding 21st

项目摘要

There have been a spate of high profile flooding incidents in recent years, both in the UK and further afield (e.g. UK wide 2007/08, Carlisle 2005, Central Europe 2002). In addition to the direct devastation caused by flooding, recent events have also highlighted the threat that large scale inundation poses to essential utilities and transport infrastructure. Thankfully major problems are relatively rare within the UK, and our infrastructure can cope with the majority of scenarios. However, this situation is changing, partly due to urban creep (increased urbanisation of our societies) but primarily due to the impact of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts a global temperature rise of between 1.4 and 5.8 degrees centigrade by the end of the century; although the effect of such rises are uncertain and complex, it is generally accepted that they will have wide ranging effects on both precipitation and the equilibrium of major ice sheets (e.g. increased frequency of intense precipitation events and increased sea levels).In response to general climate change predictions, significant research effort is being devoted to the assessment of its impact and the development of suitable mitigating strategies. Within the UK, a number of high profile EPSRC led research programmes continue to investigate how climate change and urbanisation impacts flooding at local, regional and national levels. Chief among these are the major FRMRC/FRMRC2 consortium projects and the interlinked BKCC/SKCC/ARCC initiatives. A significant proportion of such research is concentrated on the effect that the increased frequency and severity of extreme rainfall events will have on our urban environments; this is unsurprising, given that by 2008 the number of people at a high risk from flooding could rise from 1.5 million to 3.5 million, and annual damage from flooding could rise from the present level of 1 billion to about 25 billion. Whilst it is clear that climate change and urban creep are having an ever increasing impact, it is also clear that the public can often be left feeling overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the associated issues; this project hopes to go some way to demystifying these complex issues. The main aim of the proposed project is to develop an interactive exhibition to help explain to the general public how stormwater is managed within urban environments, with particular reference to the adaptations that are necessary to mitigate against the effects of climate change and urban creep. In addition to publicising current EPSRC funded research themes, it is anticipated that this will increase awareness of the built environment professions amongst the young. It is also envisaged that the project will stimulate greater public dialogue around the relevant issues, and an increased appreciation of the role of individuals and local communities. This will be achieved primarily through the use of interactive physical models which will illustrate some aspects of the urban water cycle, and also allow the audience to interact with the urban fabric (i.e. modify and/or replace certain elements in an attempt to reduce the frequency, severity and type of flooding). By associating a realistic cost to each type of system modification, and setting a reasonable budget, the audience will also gain an insight into the resources associated with both traditional, hard engineering , approaches and more innovative, sustainable, techniques. Although the project is aimed primarily at school children, it will be sufficiently flexible to be of interest to older children, adults and those professional bodies with a vested interest in urban flooding.

近年来，在英国和更远的地方发生了一系列引人注目的洪水事件（例如 2007/08 年英国范围、2005 年卡莱尔、2002 年中欧）。除了洪水造成的直接破坏外，最近发生的事件还凸显了大规模洪水对重要公用事业和交通基础设施构成的威胁。值得庆幸的是，在英国，重大问题相对较少，我们的基础设施可以应对大多数情况。然而，这种情况正在发生变化，部分原因是城市蔓延（社会城市化程度的提高），但主要是气候变化的影响。政府间气候变化专门委员会预测，到本世纪末，全球气温将上升 1.4 至 5.8 摄氏度；尽管这种上升的影响是不确定且复杂的，但人们普遍认为，它们将对降水和主要冰盖的平衡产生广泛的影响（例如，强降水事件的频率增加和海平面上升）。针对一般气候变化预测，大量研究工作正在致力于评估其影响并制定适当的缓解策略。在英国，EPSRC 领导的一些备受瞩目的研究项目继续调查气候变化和城市化如何影响地方、区域和国家层面的洪水。其中最主要的是主要的 FRMRC/FRMRC2 联盟项目和相互关联的 BKCC/SKCC/ARCC 举措。此类研究的很大一部分集中在极端降雨事件的频率和严重程度增加对我们城市环境的影响；这不足为奇，因为到2008年，面临洪水高风险的人数可能从150万增加到350万，每年洪水造成的损失可能从目前的10亿增加到约250亿。虽然气候变化和城市蔓延的影响显然越来越大，但公众常常会因相关问题的规模而感到不知所措；该项目希望以某种方式揭开这些复杂问题的神秘面纱。拟议项目的主要目的是开发一个互动展览，帮助向公众解释如何在城市环境中管理雨水，特别是减轻气候变化和城市蔓延影响所需的适应措施。除了宣传当前 EPSRC 资助的研究主题外，预计这将提高年轻人对建筑环境专业的认识。预计该项目将促进围绕相关问题进行更多的公众对话，并提高对个人和当地社区作用的认识。这主要通过使用交互式物理模型来实现，该模型将说明城市水循环的某些方面，并允许观众与城市结构互动（即修改和/或替换某些元素，以试图减少洪水的频率、严重程度和类型）。通过将实际成本与每种类型的系统修改相关联，并设定合理的预算，观众还将深入了解与传统的硬工程方法和更具创新性、可持续性的技术相关的资源。尽管该项目主要针对学童，但它具有足够的灵活性，足以引起年龄较大的儿童、成人和那些对城市洪水有既得利益的专业机构的兴趣。