The High Seas Project: Assessing the technical and operational scope for rapid carbon emission reduction from global shipping

尽管航运业正在考虑为整个行业建立一个离散的排放交易计划，但业内一些人预计，到2050年及以后，航运业的排放量将会增加(尽管速度低于正常情况下的速度)。然而，考虑到为避免危险的气候变化而需要大幅且非常迅速地削减全球排放量，这不再是一个现实的选择。相反，航运业、航空业和全球经济的所有其他部门都有必要在短期内稳定排放，然后开始大幅减排的进程。该项目旨在探索航运业内的潜在机会，以实现如此大的、阶梯式的减排。减少排放的第一步是能够准确地衡量它们。然而，目前航运排放水平存在相当大的不确定性，该项目将首先制定一种旨在大幅减少这种不确定性水平的方法。然后，该项目转向分摊问题，探索现有方法并开发新的方法，以确定哪些国家应为历史和当前航运排放的多大比例负责。开发的方法将用于重新计算英国过去十年的航运排放量。英国政府截至2050年的碳预算包括航运排放，因此，即使建立了一个离散的航运交易计划，仍有必要确定未来英国应对其负责的全球航运排放的比例。在测量和分摊排放的工作之后，该项目将探索可用于减少全球航运排放的技术和操作措施，减少的数量足以使英国实现其总体气候变化目标。这将涉及调查现有技术(例如先进的螺旋桨涂层)和操作变化(例如减少港口排队)和新兴技术(例如风筝辅助航行)的新组合。然后将计算这些不同措施(技术和操作)的理论减排潜力，并与航运利益攸关方讨论，以获得关于减排潜力是否合理的反馈。还将就航运系统内存在的实现这一理论潜力的障碍以及能够克服这些障碍并加快低碳选择和创新进程的干预类型征求利益相关者的意见。为了进一步深入了解运输系统的运作，将对各种产品和商品进行案例研究，追踪它们从生产者到消费者在该系统中的旅程。该项目将利用各种研究成果来制定一系列社会技术方案，以减少英国航运的排放量，使其与英国的碳预算保持一致。同样，航运利益相关者对这些情景的反馈将是积极的。该项目将采用明确的跨学科方法，借鉴和整合一系列科学和社会科学学科的见解，项目团队包括在国际运输、可再生技术、排放路径和能源系统的各个方面拥有丰富专业知识的个人。该小组还拥有与航空业有关的分摊方法、利益攸关方参与和情景制定方面的经验，并将把这些经验转移到航运系统的调查中。预计这项研究将对决策者、航运业和从事该领域工作的学者大有裨益。

Though the shipping industry is considering the formation of a discrete emissions trading scheme for the industry as a whole, some in the industry foresee shipping emissions increasing out to 2050 and beyond (albeit at a slower rate than under business as usual). However given the deep and very rapid cuts required in globalemissions to avoid dangerous climate change, this is no longer a realistic option. Instead, it will be necessary for shipping, along with aviation and all other sectors of the global economy, to stabilise emissions in the near-term and then begin the process of making substantial reductions. This project aims to explore potential opportunities within the shipping industry for making such large, step-change reductions in emissions.The first step in reducing emissions is to be able to accurately measure them. However, there is currently considerable uncertainty with regard to the level of shipping emissions and this project will begin by developing a methodology that aims to substantially reduce this level of uncertainty. The project then moves on to the issue of apportionment, exploring existing methodologies and developing newones to determine which nations are responsible for what proportion of historic and current shipping emissions. The approaches developed will be used to re-calculate the UK's shipping emissions over the last decade. The UK Government's carbon budget out to 2050 includes shipping emissions and, thus, even if a discrete trading scheme for shipping is established, it will still be necessary to determine the proportion of future global shipping emissions for which the UK is responsible. This will be possible using the apportionment methodologies developed.Following work on the measurement and apportionment of emissions, the project will explore the technical and operational measures available for reducing global shipping emissions by an amount sufficient for the UK to meet its overall climate change objectives. This will involve investigating novel combinations of both existing technologies (e.g. advanced propeller coatings) and operational changes (e.g. reduced queuing at ports) and the potential for emerging technologies (e.g. kite-assisted sailing).The theoretical emissions reduction potential of these various measures (technical and operational) will then be calculated, and discussed with shipping stakeholders to obtain feedback on whether the reduction potential is plausible. Stakeholder views will also be sought on the barriers that exist within the shipping system to realising this theoretical potential and the types of interventions that can overcome such barriers and accelerate both the take-up of low-carbon options and the innovation process. To gain further insights into the workings of the shipping system, case studies will be made of various products and commodities, tracking their journey through the system from producer to consumer. The project will conclude by using the various research findings to develop a series of socio-technical scenarios for reducing UK shipping emissions in line with the UK's carbon budget. Again, feedback from shipping stakeholders on these scenarios will be sought.The project will adopt an explicitly interdisciplinary approach drawing on and integrating insights from a range of scientific and social science disciplines and the project team includes individuals with substantial expertise in various aspects of international transport, renewable technology, emission pathways and energy systems. The team also has experience of apportionment methodology, stakeholder engagement and scenario development in relation to the aviation industry and will transfer this experience to the investigation of the shipping system. It is envisaged that this research will be of significant benefit to policy makers, the shipping industry and academics working in the field.