SOC JUDGEMENT, CHOICE AND BELIEFS ABOUT PREDICTABILITY

当人们在物品或行动方案中做出选择时， 我经常觉得寻找与物体的直接接触是有用的， 替代品，即使这些都是昂贵的。 例如，人们通常 面试求职者和申请大学和专业的人 学校 相反，人们有时不寻求或沉重的重量 声誉的证据，基于其他人的观点，即使这些是 容易获得。 然而，有一些经验证据表明， 一个理论论点，来自大数定律，表明 一个人的个人物品样本，特别是当这些物品是基于 只有少量的证据，有时可能预测不佳， 一个人的最终评价 相反，其他人的样本， 特别是如果这些是基于大量的证据，可能 有时候对一个人的评价很有预见性 拟议研究 将扩大现有的证据问题的可预测性， 一个人对事物的最终评价 预计小 复杂对象的个人样本（例如，一般而言， 为评价提供的基础相对较差， 关于物体的证据，特别是如果基于大量的人 有大量的经验，一般会提供一个相对 良好的评价基础。 人们对未来可预测性的信念 还将研究评价问题。 人们的预期是， 一般高估了自己小样本的稳定性评价 低估了他人大样本评估的效用。 人们信仰的确切性质将指导如何教育 人们最大限度地利用证据进行有效的社会判断， 选择. 这项工作与心理健康有关，因为它代表了基本的 研究社会认知--也就是人们如何利用关于 复杂的社会对象。 它直接关系到脑力劳动 卫生专业人员，他们的工作包括在很大程度上使社会 根据不同种类的证据作出判断。 目前的工作将 谈谈专业人士使用的各种证据的效用。

When making a choice among objects or alternative courses of action, people often feel it is useful to seek out direct encounters with the objects or alternatives, even when these are costly. For example, people routinely interview job candidates and applicants for college and professional school. Conversely, people sometimes do not seek out or heavily weight reputational evidence, based on other people's views, even when these are readily obtainable. There is some empirical evidence, however, as well as a theoretical argument deriving from the Law of Large Numbers, indicating that one's personal samples of objects, particularly when these are based on only a small amount of evidence, may sometimes be poorly predictive of one's ultimate evaluations. Conversely, other people's samples, particularly if these are based on a large amount of evidence, may sometimes be highly predictive of one's evaluations. The proposed research will extend the available evidence on the question of predictability of one's ultimate evaluations of objects. It is anticipated that small personal samples of complex objects (e.g., interviews) will in general provide a relatively poor basis for evaluations, while reputational evidence about the objects, especially if based on a large number of people with a large amount of experience, will in general provide a relatively good basis for evaluations. People's beliefs about predictability of evaluations will also be studied. The anticipation is that people will in general overestimate the stability of their own small sample evaluations and underestimate the utility of other people's large sample evaluations. The exact nature of people's beliefs will be a guide as to how to educate people to make maximum use of evidence for effective social judgments and choices. The work is relevant to mental health in that it represents basic work on social cognition--that is, how people make use of evidence about complex social objects. It has direct relevance to the work of mental health professionals whose jobs consist in good part of making social judgments on the basis of evidence of varying kinds. The present work will speak to the utility of the kinds of evidence used by professionals.