CONDITIONAL PREDICTION & THE MANAGEMENT OF DANGEROUSNESS

条件预测

• 批准号: 3377937
• 负责人: Charles W Lidz
• 金额: $ 59.77万
• 依托单位: UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1985
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1985-06-01 至 1992-05-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3377937
• 关键词: behavior prediction; case history; criminal behavior; health care personnel performance; interview; judgment; patient care management; psychiatric patient care; social behavior disorders

This study tests the accuracy of clinicians' predictions of future patient violence using a new model to depict both clinician assessment and patient behavior. This model reflects the findings of our current research showing that the prediction of dangerousness is not a logical, straightforward task of generating a likelihood estimate. It is instead a task that is done within, and shaped by, the need for continuous case management of violent patients. The proposal adopts the position that clinicians assessments of dangerousness are tied to broader schemas or scripts about the patient and his or her situation. These scripts are represented and tested in this study as a judgment of the clinician about what type of violence will occur under what conditions. We hypothesize that when one represents the clinical judgment and patient behavior in these conditional terms clinicians' ability to predict and manage dangerousness will be found to be higher than commonly assumed. The research will collect a detailed conditional assessment of dangerousness on 1600 patients from the two emergency room clinicians who assess the patient and, if the patient is admitted, the unit attending physician at discharge. A projected 400 patients judged dangerous, and 400 matched controls will be followed through three interviews over a six-month period and reviews of clinical and arrest records for these patients will be done. The results will allow us both to determine the predictive validity of various clinical predictions and to suggest other conditions which might aid in the management of these patients. These results will both prompt and focus policy debate about the role of dangerousness predictions.

这项研究测试了临床医生对未来预测的准确性。 用一种新的模式描绘两名临床医生的患者暴力行为 评估和患者行为。这个模型反映了研究结果。 我们目前的研究表明， 危险不是一种逻辑上的、直接的产生任务 可能性估计。相反，这是一项在内部完成的任务，而且 形成了对暴力案件持续管理的需要 病人。该提案采用了临床医生的立场 对危险性的评估与更广泛的模式或 关于病人和他或她的情况的剧本。这些脚本 在这项研究中被陈述和测试作为对 临床医生关于在什么情况下会发生什么类型的暴力 条件。我们假设，当一个人代表临床 这些条件术语中的判断和耐心行为 临床医生预测和管理危险的能力将是 发现比通常认为的要高。 这项研究将收集详细的条件评估 两个急诊室1600例病人的危险性分析 临床医生对患者进行评估，如果患者入院， 出院时主治医师的单位。预计为400人 被判定为危险的患者和400名匹配的对照组将被 在六个月的时间里进行了三次采访， 将对这些患者的临床和逮捕记录进行审查 搞定了。结果将使我们双方都能够确定预测 各种临床预测的有效性和建议的其他 可能有助于这些患者管理的条件。 这些结果将促使并聚焦于关于 危险预测的作用。