THE LAYPERSON AS REVISIONIST HISTORIAN

作为修正主义历史学家的外行

• 批准号: 3377030
• 负责人: thomas D GILOVICH
• 金额: $ 3.36万
• 依托单位: CORNELL UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1984
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1984-07-01 至 1987-06-30
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3377030
• 关键词: attribution; bias; high risk behavior /lifestyle; impression; judgment

This research seeks to better understand how social judgments are systematically affected by certain tendencies to revise, immediately or retrospectively, our interpretations and evaluations of events. The first set of studies examines the ongoing and immediate revision of outcome information in various gambling activities that is seen as an important determinant of people's unfortunate persistence in numerous gambling endeavors. This work expands on past research demonstrating that gamblers do not evaluate outcomes evenhandely; instead, successes tend to be readily accepted at face value, whereas failures are explained away and discounted. The present research further examines this biased evaluation process by varying the nature and availability of different types of outcome information and examining their effects on subjects' confidence and willingness to continue betting. Ultimately, it is anticipated that this research will lead to the development of procedures that will reduce people's persistence in patterns of dysfunctional behavior. The second set of studies explores the systematic revision of attributional judgments produced by increases in "psychological distance". In particular, this work examines the increase in psychological distance due to the passage of time and the secondhand knowledge of events. The focus of this work involves comparing attributional judgments made immediately or after a delay and comparing attributions made by subjects who witness some event firsthand with those made by subjects who only hear about that event from someone else. It is expected that with increased psychological distance subjects will see their own and other people's behavior as more consistent and more a function of personal dispositions. The third set of studies attempts to explicate a pervasive tendency to favorably revise our assessments of past decisions and courses of action. This "retrospective optimism" will be examined through a comparision of before and after opinion polls concerning the public's assessment of the wisdom of various government policy decisions.

这项研究旨在更好地理解社会判断是如何产生的