THE LAYPERSON AS REVISIONIST HISTORIAN

这项研究试图更好地理解社会判断是如何 系统地受到某些倾向的影响，立即或 回顾过去，我们对事件的解释和评价。第一 一组研究检查正在进行的和立即修订的结果 各种赌博活动中的信息被视为重要的 人们在众多赌博中不幸坚持的决定因素 努力。这项工作是对过去研究的扩展，该研究表明赌徒 不要事与愿违地评估结果；相反，成功往往是 容易接受的表面价值，而失败是解释和 打折。本研究进一步检验了这种有偏见的评价 通过改变不同类型的 结果信息及其对受试者自信心的影响 以及继续下注的意愿。最终，预计 这项研究将导致程序的开发将减少 人们对功能失调行为模式的坚持。 第二组研究探讨了系统地修订 心理因素增加所产生的归因判断 尤其是，这项工作考察了 因时间流逝而产生的心理距离和二手货 对事件的了解。这项工作的重点是比较 立即或在延迟后作出的归因判断和比较 亲眼目睹某一事件的受试者所作的归因 由只从其他人那里听说这一事件的受试者制作。它是 预计随着心理距离的增加，受试者将看到 他们自己和其他人的行为更一致，也更 个人性情的作用。 第三组研究试图解释一种普遍存在的 有利地修订我们对过去决定和行动方针的评估。 这种“追溯性的乐观主义”将通过与 在民意调查前后就公众对政府的评价 各种政府决策的智慧。

This research seeks to better understand how social judgments are systematically affected by certain tendencies to revise, immediately or retrospectively, our interpretations and evaluations of events. The first set of studies examines the ongoing and immediate revision of outcome information in various gambling activities that is seen as an important determinant of people's unfortunate persistence in numerous gambling endeavors. This work expands on past research demonstrating that gamblers do not evaluate outcomes evenhandely; instead, successes tend to be readily accepted at face value, whereas failures are explained away and discounted. The present research further examines this biased evaluation process by varying the nature and availability of different types of outcome information and examining their effects on subjects' confidence and willingness to continue betting. Ultimately, it is anticipated that this research will lead to the development of procedures that will reduce people's persistence in patterns of dysfunctional behavior. The second set of studies explores the systematic revision of attributional judgments produced by increases in "psychological distance". In particular, this work examines the increase in psychological distance due to the passage of time and the secondhand knowledge of events. The focus of this work involves comparing attributional judgments made immediately or after a delay and comparing attributions made by subjects who witness some event firsthand with those made by subjects who only hear about that event from someone else. It is expected that with increased psychological distance subjects will see their own and other people's behavior as more consistent and more a function of personal dispositions. The third set of studies attempts to explicate a pervasive tendency to favorably revise our assessments of past decisions and courses of action. This "retrospective optimism" will be examined through a comparision of before and after opinion polls concerning the public's assessment of the wisdom of various government policy decisions.