AMBIGUITY RESOLUTION & PERCEPTIONS OF SOCIAL CONSENSUS

该提案要求支持旨在检查原因的研究。 以及可疑和错误信仰的后果。其中一些 拟议的研究继续了关于随机错误认知的早期工作 序列以及对信息的有偏见的选择和评估。然而， 这项提案的核心是一项研究，考察人们如何 错误的信念得到了一种倾向的支持，即人们有一种 夸张地感觉到别人的想法和行为的程度 确实是这样的。更具体地说，这项研究试图探索到目前为止 被忽视的机制，可能是这种“虚假共识”效应的基础，或者 人们倾向于相信他们自己的信仰、行为和 观点是相对普遍的。这种机制的核心是内在的 大多数信仰目标的模糊性。例如，在尝试评估 其他人在多大程度上分享自己对整体健康的信念 必须首先确定“整体健康”一词的确切含义。是这样的 不同的人对术语的解释可能有很大的不同，而且它 应该清楚的是，我们解释这些术语的确切方式不会 只决定我们自己的反应，但会对 我们对他人反应的估计。因为人们没有意识到 其他人可能在多大程度上对同一对象进行相当程度的“解读” 不同的是，他们的共识估计没有充分考虑到 潜在分歧的重要来源。一系列实验室 实验将检验这种识解过程如何引导人们形成 夸大估计自己的信仰、观点和观点的共性 行为，以及这种对共识的扭曲看法如何有助于支持 错误的信念。最终，这项研究应该会带来更好的 对歪曲判断的原因和治疗的理解， 错误的决定和错误的信念。

This proposal requests support for research designed to examine the causes and consequences of questionable and erroneous beliefs. Some of the proposed studies continue earlier work on the misperception of random sequences and the biased selection and evaluation of information. However, the core of this proposal consists of research that examines how people's erroneous beliefs are bolstered by a tendency for people to have an inflated sense of the extent to which others think and act the way that they do. More specifically, this research seeks to explore a heretofore neglected mechanism that may underlie this "false consensus" effect, or the tendency for people to believe that their own beliefs, actions, and opinions are relatively common. This mechanism centers on the inherent ambiguity of most targets of belief. For example, when trying to assess the extent to which other people share one's belief in holistic health, one must first determine exactly what the term "holistic health" means. Such terms can be interpreted quite differently by different people, and it should be clear that the precise way that we construe such terms will not only determine our own reactions, but will exert a parallel influence on our estimates of the reactions of others. Because people fail to appreciate the extent to which others may "construe" the same object quite differently, their consensus estimates fail to take full account of an important source of potential divergence. A series of laboratory experiments will examine how such construal processes lead people to form exaggerated estimates of the commonness of their own beliefs, opinions, and behaviors, and how such distorted perceptions of consensus serve to bolster erroneous beliefs. Ultimately, this research should lead to a better understanding of the causes of, and cures for, distorted judgments, misguided decisions, and erroneous beliefs.