Multi-sectoral interactions in global energy end-use

全球能源最终使用的多部门互动

• 批准号: EP/K007254/1
• 负责人: Jean-Francois Mercure
• 金额: $ 29.5万
• 依托单位: University of Cambridge
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FK007254%2F1
• 关键词: Multi; sectoral; interactions; global; energy

This fellowship proposal is for the calculation of future scenarios of technological change and CO2 emissions in energy end-use, through the development of an interacting multi-sectoral family of theoretical and computational models of technology diffusion in energy end-use systems. The integration of this family of models into the Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Model at the Global level (E3MG) will create the first global E3 model to consider simultaneously technology diffusion patterns, induced technological change in all sectors of energy use (transport, industry, end-use), natural resource constraints and the interaction between sectors.The reduction of CO2 emissions requires changes of energy consuming technologies, such as vehicles for transport, lighting, heating and cooling systems, as well as industrial systems such as steel furnaces and aluminium smelters. Historically changes of technology occur gradually, following advances in engineering and production supply chains, but also through evolutions of habits and behaviours. Such historical diffusion patterns have been studied extensively using S-shaped curves [1], and it has been recognised that their inclusion in energy modelling is required in order to improve scenarios of future energy use, but they are challenging to implement and remain absent in current models [2]. Technology substitutions include for instance the replacement of petrol cars by electric vehicles or gas boilers by heat pumps, but also the replacement of one set of habits by another, such as switching from personal car use to public transport.Individual emissions reduction measures have, when put in a multi-sectoral context, mutual synergies or they can be detrimental to one another, in terms of efficiency of energy use. The coordination of such measures is a complex problem that requires careful planning, and should ideally be based on analysing simultaneously the whole system of E3 interactions. For example, the calculation of global greenhouse gas emissions resulting from policies and economic scenarios involves a simultaneous study of emissions from all energy consumption and transformation sectors: power generation, industry, transport and end-use, driven by the demand for services or goods in these sectors. The research proposed for this fellowship concerns firstly the development and integration of a complete family of new sub-models of technological change in energy end-use sectors into the existing Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level (E3MG). E3MG is a large-scale macroeconometric model of the global economy, featuring 20 world regions and 42 industrial sectors. This work will use a new theoretical framework that was recently developed by myself for forecasting technological diffusion and learning-by-doing in competitive markets, which was successfully applied to construct a new sub-model for E3MG of the global power sector. The core of this project will involve using the combination of all models to generate UK and global future scenarios of technology and CO2 emissions, using external assumptions such as regulations, world population and land use. This will additionally enable fellow group members to explore macroeconomic impacts such as "green growth".The work proposed will benefit from two-way interactions with a group of stakeholders at all stages of the project development. This will involve three main groups: applied economists at Cambridge Econometrics, environmental scientists of the Tyndall Centre at the University of East-Anglia and policy advisors and researchers at the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change and the UK Energy Research Centre. These groups will contribute by providing insight in bridging technology to the economy, contribute guidance on climate policy in the context of the UK's decarbonisation strategy and enable to explore environmental and human impacts associated with future CO2 emission.

该奖学金建议是为了计算能源最终使用中技术变化和二氧化碳排放的未来方案，通过开发能源最终用途系统中技术扩散的理论和计算模型的相互作用的多部门家族。在全球层面（E3MG）将这个模型家族的整合到能量经济环境（E3）模型（E3）模型（E3）模型将创建第一个考虑同时考虑技术扩散模式的全球E3模型，在所有能源使用范围内诱导技术变化（运输，行业，最终使用），自然资源约束，自然资源的交互以及CORSISS的交互作用。运输，照明，供暖和冷却系统，以及钢炉和铝冶炼厂等工业系统。从历史上讲，技术的变化逐渐发生，随着工程和生产供应链的进步，以及通过习惯和行为的发展。这种历史扩散模式已经使用S形曲线进行了广泛的研究[1]，并且已经认识到，为了改善未来能源使用的情况，需要将它们包含在能量建模中，但是它们在当前模型中实施和不存在挑战[2]。技术替代品包括通过电动汽车或燃气锅炉替换汽油汽车，还包括通过另一种习惯代替一组习惯，例如从个人汽车使用转换为公共交通工具。当多部门的环境中，互助或他们可能会逐步效率，而效率又可以胜任。这种措施的协调是一个复杂的问题，需要仔细计划，理想情况下应该基于同时分析E3相互作用的整个系统。例如，由政策和经济情景产生的全球温室气体排放的计算涉及对所有能源消耗和转型部门的排放：发电，工业，行业，运输和最终用途，这是受这些部门对服务或商品的需求驱动的。这项奖学金提出的研究首先涉及到能源最终用途部门的全新技术变化的完整子模型的发展和整合到全球层面（E3MG）的现有能源 - 经济环境模型中。 E3MG是全球经济的大规模宏观经济学模型，具有20个世界地区和42个工业领域。这项工作将使用一个新的理论框架，该框架最近是我自己开发的，用于预测竞争市场中的技术扩散和学习，该框架已成功地应用于为全球电力部门E3mg建造新的子模型。该项目的核心将涉及使用所有模型的组合来生成英国和全球技术和二氧化碳排放的情况，并使用法规，世界人口和土地使用等外部假设。这还将使小组成员能够探索诸如“绿色增长”之类的宏观经济影响。拟议的工作将受益于与项目开发的各个阶段与一群利益相关者的双向互动。这将涉及三个主要群体：剑桥计量经济学家的应用经济学家，剑桥计量经济学家，东英国大学廷德尔中心的环境科学家以及英国能源与气候变化部的政策顾问和研究人员，英国能源研究中心。这些群体将通过为经济提供桥接技术的见识，在英国脱碳战略的背景下为气候政策提供指导，并能够探索与未来二氧化碳排放相关的环境和人类影响。

项目成果

The behavioural aspect of green technology investments: A general positive model in the context of heterogeneous agents

绿色技术投资的行为方面：异质主体背景下的一般正向模型

• DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2016.03.002
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
• 影响因子: 7.2
• 作者: Knobloch F

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

• DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.1003774
• 发表时间: 2016-05-18
• 期刊: CLIMATE POLICY
• 影响因子: 7.1
• 作者: Barker, Terry;Alexandri, Eva;Pollitt, Hector
• 通讯作者: Pollitt, Hector

FTT:Heat - A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector

FTT:Heat - 欧洲住宅供暖行业技术变革的模拟模型

• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112249
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Energy Policy
• 影响因子: 9
• 作者: Knobloch F

Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0197-7
• 发表时间: 2018-07-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Holden, P. B.;Edwards, N. R.;Vinuales, J. E.
• 通讯作者: Vinuales, J. E.

Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

综合评估框架中的气候模型模拟：电力部门缓解政策的案例研究

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-7-119-2016
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Earth System Dynamics
• 影响因子: 7.3
• 作者: Foley A