Multi-sectoral interactions in global energy end-use

全球能源最终使用的多部门互动

• 批准号: EP/K007254/1
• 负责人: Jean-Francois Mercure
• 金额: $ 29.5万
• 依托单位: University of Cambridge
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FK007254%2F1
• 关键词: Multi; sectoral; interactions; global; energy

This fellowship proposal is for the calculation of future scenarios of technological change and CO2 emissions in energy end-use, through the development of an interacting multi-sectoral family of theoretical and computational models of technology diffusion in energy end-use systems. The integration of this family of models into the Energy-Economy-Environment (E3) Model at the Global level (E3MG) will create the first global E3 model to consider simultaneously technology diffusion patterns, induced technological change in all sectors of energy use (transport, industry, end-use), natural resource constraints and the interaction between sectors.The reduction of CO2 emissions requires changes of energy consuming technologies, such as vehicles for transport, lighting, heating and cooling systems, as well as industrial systems such as steel furnaces and aluminium smelters. Historically changes of technology occur gradually, following advances in engineering and production supply chains, but also through evolutions of habits and behaviours. Such historical diffusion patterns have been studied extensively using S-shaped curves [1], and it has been recognised that their inclusion in energy modelling is required in order to improve scenarios of future energy use, but they are challenging to implement and remain absent in current models [2]. Technology substitutions include for instance the replacement of petrol cars by electric vehicles or gas boilers by heat pumps, but also the replacement of one set of habits by another, such as switching from personal car use to public transport.Individual emissions reduction measures have, when put in a multi-sectoral context, mutual synergies or they can be detrimental to one another, in terms of efficiency of energy use. The coordination of such measures is a complex problem that requires careful planning, and should ideally be based on analysing simultaneously the whole system of E3 interactions. For example, the calculation of global greenhouse gas emissions resulting from policies and economic scenarios involves a simultaneous study of emissions from all energy consumption and transformation sectors: power generation, industry, transport and end-use, driven by the demand for services or goods in these sectors. The research proposed for this fellowship concerns firstly the development and integration of a complete family of new sub-models of technological change in energy end-use sectors into the existing Energy-Economy-Environment Model at the Global level (E3MG). E3MG is a large-scale macroeconometric model of the global economy, featuring 20 world regions and 42 industrial sectors. This work will use a new theoretical framework that was recently developed by myself for forecasting technological diffusion and learning-by-doing in competitive markets, which was successfully applied to construct a new sub-model for E3MG of the global power sector. The core of this project will involve using the combination of all models to generate UK and global future scenarios of technology and CO2 emissions, using external assumptions such as regulations, world population and land use. This will additionally enable fellow group members to explore macroeconomic impacts such as "green growth".The work proposed will benefit from two-way interactions with a group of stakeholders at all stages of the project development. This will involve three main groups: applied economists at Cambridge Econometrics, environmental scientists of the Tyndall Centre at the University of East-Anglia and policy advisors and researchers at the UK Department for Energy and Climate Change and the UK Energy Research Centre. These groups will contribute by providing insight in bridging technology to the economy, contribute guidance on climate policy in the context of the UK's decarbonisation strategy and enable to explore environmental and human impacts associated with future CO2 emission.

这项研究金提案旨在通过发展能源最终用途系统中技术扩散的相互作用的多部门理论和计算模型，计算能源最终用途中技术变化和二氧化碳排放的未来情况。将这一系列模型整合到全球一级的能源-经济-环境（E3）模型（E3MG）中，将创建第一个同时考虑技术扩散模式、所有能源使用部门（运输、工业、最终用途）的诱导技术变革、自然资源限制和部门之间相互作用的全球E3模型。减少二氧化碳排放需要改变能源消耗技术，例如运输车辆、照明、加热和冷却系统，以及炼钢炉和炼铝厂等工业系统。从历史上看，随着工程和生产供应链的进步，技术的变化逐渐发生，但也通过习惯和行为的演变。这种历史扩散模式已经使用s形曲线[1]进行了广泛的研究，并且已经认识到，为了改善未来能源使用的情景，需要将其纳入能源建模，但它们很难实现，并且在当前模型中仍然存在缺失[2]。例如，技术替代包括用电动汽车取代汽油汽车或用热泵取代燃气锅炉，但也包括用一套习惯取代另一套习惯，例如从使用私家车转向使用公共交通工具。在多部门背景下，个别减排措施在能源使用效率方面具有相互增效作用，也可能相互损害。这些措施的协调是一个复杂的问题，需要仔细规划，理想情况下应该基于同时分析E3互动的整个系统。例如，计算政策和经济情景造成的全球温室气体排放涉及同时研究所有能源消费和转型部门的排放：发电、工业、运输和最终使用，这些部门对服务或货物的需求推动了排放。本奖学金的研究首先涉及发展和整合能源最终使用部门技术变革的一整套新子模型到现有的全球层面的能源-经济-环境模型（E3MG）。E3MG是一个大规模的全球经济宏观计量模型，包含了20个世界地区和42个产业部门。这项工作将使用我最近开发的预测竞争市场中技术扩散和边做边学的新理论框架，并成功地应用于构建全球电力行业E3MG的新子模型。该项目的核心将涉及使用所有模型的组合来生成英国和全球未来的技术和二氧化碳排放情景，使用外部假设，如法规，世界人口和土地使用。这还将使小组成员能够探讨“绿色增长”等宏观经济影响。拟议的工作将受益于在项目发展的所有阶段与一组利益相关者的双向互动。这将涉及三个主要小组：剑桥计量经济学的应用经济学家，东英吉利大学廷德尔中心的环境科学家，以及英国能源与气候变化部和英国能源研究中心的政策顾问和研究人员。这些小组将通过提供连接技术与经济的洞察力，在英国脱碳战略的背景下为气候政策提供指导，并能够探索与未来二氧化碳排放相关的环境和人类影响。

项目成果

The behavioural aspect of green technology investments: A general positive model in the context of heterogeneous agents

绿色技术投资的行为方面：异质主体背景下的一般正向模型

• DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2016.03.002
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions
• 影响因子: 7.2
• 作者: Knobloch F

GDP and employment effects of policies to close the 2020 emissions gap

• DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2014.1003774
• 发表时间: 2016-05-18
• 期刊: CLIMATE POLICY
• 影响因子: 7.1
• 作者: Barker, Terry;Alexandri, Eva;Pollitt, Hector
• 通讯作者: Pollitt, Hector

FTT:Heat - A simulation model for technological change in the European residential heating sector

FTT:Heat - 欧洲住宅供暖行业技术变革的模拟模型

• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112249
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Energy Policy
• 影响因子: 9
• 作者: Knobloch F

Climate-carbon cycle uncertainties and the Paris Agreement

• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0197-7
• 发表时间: 2018-07-01
• 期刊: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
• 影响因子: 30.7
• 作者: Holden, P. B.;Edwards, N. R.;Vinuales, J. E.
• 通讯作者: Vinuales, J. E.

Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

综合评估框架中的气候模型模拟：电力部门缓解政策的案例研究

• DOI: 10.5194/esd-7-119-2016
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: Earth System Dynamics
• 影响因子: 7.3
• 作者: Foley A