Reducing uncertainty in predicting the risk of geological storage of CO2 - Improved geomechanical models and calibration using seismic data

尽管科学界和许多政府都认为，使用碳氢化合物燃料产生的温室气体是造成破坏性全球气候变化的主要原因，但社会仍然严重依赖碳氢化合物燃料，从发电，运输到制造。向低碳社会的可行过渡所涉及的时间尺度可能是几十年，因此需要立即解决减少目前人类向大气排放二氧化碳的问题。地质封存是碳捕获、运输和封存（CCS）工程技术链的一个组成部分，现在被大多数政府和科学家认为是一种实用的战略，在减少全球温室气体排放、继续满足世界能源需求和向低碳经济过渡方面具有相对直接的影响。当CO2注入并储存在地质构造中时，由于储层内孔隙压力增加和温度降低，原地应力场立即改变。这会导致储层和围岩变形。这种变形可以改变地质构造的注入和存储特性。此外，实质性的变化可以显着损害盖层岩石的完整性（即向上流动的浮力CO2的障碍）通过地层裂缝和/或现有的裂缝或faults.The我的奖学金的目的是解决基本的不确定性相关的储层应力作为对CO2的地质储存。该研究金的目的是在量化地质储存场点注入和储存CO2造成的不确定性和风险方面实现一个阶段性的变化。为实现这一目标，研究将发展和推进目前使用地震数据建立复杂的水力机械模型的方法，并发展使用地震和地表变形数据校准最先进的水力机械建模工具的方法。该研究金的主要成果是大大提高我们的能力，以便：（一）在开发的早期阶段评估地质储存场点的安全性，以减少不确定性和风险;（二）利用综合模型预测，提供一种预测和缓解工具，以描述地质储存场点因注入和储存二氧化碳而产生的行为。利兹的研究环境将使我能够继续发展我的CCS研究，同时与该领域的一些关键人物合作。Quentin Fisher教授一直是综合流体力学和岩石物理学的推动力;布鲁斯亚德利教授在研究二氧化碳注入和流体岩石的地球化学效应方面处于最前沿; Peter Taylor教授曾担任国际能源署CCS技术政策司司长; Andrew Gouldson教授在低碳技术的政策和风险分析方面拥有丰富的经验; Andrew Shepherd教授在开发干涉合成孔径雷达的新应用方面具有丰富的专业知识，可以监测复杂地形的地表变形。

Although the scientific community and many governments agree that greenhouse gases resulting from the use of hydrocarbon fuels are primarily responsible for producing damaging global climate change, society is still heavily dependent on hydrocarbon fuels for everything from electricity generation, transport, and manufacturing. Time scales involved for viable transitions to low carbon societies will likely be on the order of several decades and thus requiring immediate solutions for reducing current anthropogenic CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Geological storage forms an integral component of the carbon capture, transport and storage (so-called CCS) engineering technology chain and is now recognized by most governments and scientists as a practical strategy with relatively immediate consequences in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, continuing to meet the world's energy needs, and transitioning to low carbon economies. When CO2 is injected and stored in a geological formation, the in situ stress field is altered immediately due to increased pore pressure and reduced temperature within the reservoir. This leads to deformation in both the reservoir and surrounding rock. This deformation can change the injection and storage characteristics of the geological formation. Furthermore, substantial changes can significantly compromise cap-rock integrity (i.e. the barrier to upward flow of buoyant CO2) through the formation fractures and/or the reactivation of existing fractures or faults.The objective of my fellowship is to address the fundamental uncertainty related to reservoir stress as a response to the geological storage of CO2. The fellowship aims to make a step change in quantifying the uncertainty and risks due to the injection and storage of CO2 in geological storage sites. To accomplish this, the research will develop and advance current approaches in building complex hydro-mechanical models using seismic data, and develop methods to calibrate state-of-the-art hydro-mechanical modelling tools using seismic and surface deformation data. The main outcomes or the fellowship are to significantly improve our ability to:(i) assess the safety of geological storage sites in the early stages of development to reduce uncertainty and risk, and (ii) use integrated model predictions to provide a forecasting and mitigating tool to describe the behaviour of geological storage sites due to the injection and storage of CO2.The fellowship will be conducted at the University of Leeds. The research environment at Leeds will allow me to continue to develop my CCS research, while working with some of the key people in this field. Prof Quentin Fisher has been the driving force behind integrated hydro-mechanics and petro-physics; Prof Bruce Yardley is at the forefront in researching geochemical effects of CO2 injection and fluid-rock; Prof Peter Taylor was former Division Head of the Technology Policy Division in CCS at the International Energy Agency; Prof Andrew Gouldson has proven experience in the policy and risk analysis of low carbon technologies; and Prof Andrew Shepherd has strong expertise in developing novel applications of InSAR to monitor surface deformation in complex terrains.