Reducing uncertainty in predicting the risk of geological storage of CO2 - Improved geomechanical models and calibration using seismic data

尽管科学界和许多政府都认为，使用碳氢化合物燃料产生的温室气体是造成破坏性的全球气候变化的主要原因，但从发电、运输到制造业，社会仍然严重依赖碳氢化合物燃料。向低碳社会可行过渡所涉及的时间尺度可能在几十年左右，因此需要立即采取措施减少目前人为向大气中排放的二氧化碳。地质储存是碳捕获、运输和储存（所谓的CCS）工程技术链的一个组成部分，现在被大多数政府和科学家认为是一种实用的战略，在减少全球温室气体排放、继续满足世界能源需求和向低碳经济过渡方面具有相对直接的影响。当二氧化碳被注入并储存在地质地层中时，由于储层内孔隙压力的增加和温度的降低，现场应力场立即发生改变。这导致了储层和围岩的变形。这种变形可以改变地层的注入和储集特征。此外，实质性的变化可能会严重损害盖层岩石的完整性（即通过地层裂缝向上流动的浮力二氧化碳的屏障）和/或现有裂缝或断层的重新激活。我的研究目标是解决与储层应力相关的基本不确定性，作为对二氧化碳地质储存的响应。该研究的目的是在量化由于在地质储存地点注入和储存二氧化碳而产生的不确定性和风险方面做出一步改变。为了实现这一目标，该研究将开发和推进当前使用地震数据构建复杂水力学模型的方法，并开发使用地震和地表变形数据校准最先进的水力学建模工具的方法。该研究的主要成果是显著提高我们的能力：(i)在开发的早期阶段评估地质储存地点的安全性，以减少不确定性和风险；（ii）使用综合模型预测提供预测和缓解工具，以描述由于注入和储存二氧化碳而导致的地质储存地点的行为。该奖学金将在利兹大学进行。利兹的研究环境将使我能够继续发展我的CCS研究，同时与该领域的一些关键人物合作。Quentin Fisher教授一直是流体力学和石油物理学综合研究的推动者；Bruce Yardley教授在研究二氧化碳注入和流体岩石的地球化学效应方面处于领先地位；Peter Taylor教授曾任国际能源署CCS技术政策司司长；安德鲁•古尔德森（Andrew Gouldson）教授在低碳技术的政策和风险分析方面经验丰富；Andrew Shepherd教授在开发InSAR的新应用以监测复杂地形的表面变形方面具有很强的专业知识。

Although the scientific community and many governments agree that greenhouse gases resulting from the use of hydrocarbon fuels are primarily responsible for producing damaging global climate change, society is still heavily dependent on hydrocarbon fuels for everything from electricity generation, transport, and manufacturing. Time scales involved for viable transitions to low carbon societies will likely be on the order of several decades and thus requiring immediate solutions for reducing current anthropogenic CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Geological storage forms an integral component of the carbon capture, transport and storage (so-called CCS) engineering technology chain and is now recognized by most governments and scientists as a practical strategy with relatively immediate consequences in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, continuing to meet the world's energy needs, and transitioning to low carbon economies. When CO2 is injected and stored in a geological formation, the in situ stress field is altered immediately due to increased pore pressure and reduced temperature within the reservoir. This leads to deformation in both the reservoir and surrounding rock. This deformation can change the injection and storage characteristics of the geological formation. Furthermore, substantial changes can significantly compromise cap-rock integrity (i.e. the barrier to upward flow of buoyant CO2) through the formation fractures and/or the reactivation of existing fractures or faults.The objective of my fellowship is to address the fundamental uncertainty related to reservoir stress as a response to the geological storage of CO2. The fellowship aims to make a step change in quantifying the uncertainty and risks due to the injection and storage of CO2 in geological storage sites. To accomplish this, the research will develop and advance current approaches in building complex hydro-mechanical models using seismic data, and develop methods to calibrate state-of-the-art hydro-mechanical modelling tools using seismic and surface deformation data. The main outcomes or the fellowship are to significantly improve our ability to:(i) assess the safety of geological storage sites in the early stages of development to reduce uncertainty and risk, and (ii) use integrated model predictions to provide a forecasting and mitigating tool to describe the behaviour of geological storage sites due to the injection and storage of CO2.The fellowship will be conducted at the University of Leeds. The research environment at Leeds will allow me to continue to develop my CCS research, while working with some of the key people in this field. Prof Quentin Fisher has been the driving force behind integrated hydro-mechanics and petro-physics; Prof Bruce Yardley is at the forefront in researching geochemical effects of CO2 injection and fluid-rock; Prof Peter Taylor was former Division Head of the Technology Policy Division in CCS at the International Energy Agency; Prof Andrew Gouldson has proven experience in the policy and risk analysis of low carbon technologies; and Prof Andrew Shepherd has strong expertise in developing novel applications of InSAR to monitor surface deformation in complex terrains.