Reducing uncertainty in predicting the risk of geological storage of CO2 - Improved geomechanical models and calibration using seismic data

尽管科学界和许多政府都同意，使用碳氢燃料产生的温室气体是造成破坏性全球气候变化的主要原因，但从发电、运输和制造，社会仍然严重依赖碳氢燃料。向低碳社会可行过渡所涉及的时间尺度可能在几十年左右，因此需要立即解决减少目前人类排放到大气中的二氧化碳的问题。地质封存是碳捕获、运输和封存(即所谓的CCS)工程技术链中不可或缺的组成部分，目前已被大多数政府和科学家视为在减少全球温室气体排放、继续满足世界能源需求和向低碳经济转型方面具有相对立竿见影效果的实用战略。当二氧化碳注入并储存在地质地层中时，由于储层内孔隙压力的增加和温度的降低，地应力场立即发生变化。这导致了水库和围岩的变形。这种变形可以改变地质地层的注入和储集特征。此外，实质性的变化可能会通过地层裂缝和/或现有裂缝或断层的重新激活显著损害盖层-岩石的完整性(即阻碍浮力二氧化碳向上流动的障碍)。我的研究员资格的目的是解决与储层应力相关的根本不确定性，作为对二氧化碳地质储存的回应。该奖学金的目的是在量化由于在地质储存点注入和储存二氧化碳而产生的不确定性和风险方面做出一步的改变。为了实现这一目标，这项研究将发展和推进目前使用地震数据建立复杂的流体力学模型的方法，并开发使用地震和地表变形数据校准最先进的流体力学建模工具的方法。主要成果或奖学金将显著提高我们的能力：(I)在开发的早期阶段评估地质储存点的安全性，以减少不确定性和风险，以及(Ii)使用综合模型预测来提供预测和缓解工具，以描述由于注入和储存二氧化碳而产生的地质储存点的行为。利兹的研究环境将使我能够继续发展我的CCS研究，同时与该领域的一些关键人物合作。Quentin Fisher教授是综合流体力学和岩石物理背后的驱动力；Bruce Yardley教授在研究二氧化碳注入和流体岩石的地球化学效应方面处于领先地位；Peter Taylor教授是国际能源署CCS技术政策部门的前负责人；Andrew Gouldson教授在低碳技术的政策和风险分析方面拥有丰富的经验；Andrew Shepherd教授在开发InSAR的新应用以监测复杂地形中的地表变形方面拥有丰富的专业知识。

Although the scientific community and many governments agree that greenhouse gases resulting from the use of hydrocarbon fuels are primarily responsible for producing damaging global climate change, society is still heavily dependent on hydrocarbon fuels for everything from electricity generation, transport, and manufacturing. Time scales involved for viable transitions to low carbon societies will likely be on the order of several decades and thus requiring immediate solutions for reducing current anthropogenic CO2 emissions into the atmosphere. Geological storage forms an integral component of the carbon capture, transport and storage (so-called CCS) engineering technology chain and is now recognized by most governments and scientists as a practical strategy with relatively immediate consequences in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions, continuing to meet the world's energy needs, and transitioning to low carbon economies. When CO2 is injected and stored in a geological formation, the in situ stress field is altered immediately due to increased pore pressure and reduced temperature within the reservoir. This leads to deformation in both the reservoir and surrounding rock. This deformation can change the injection and storage characteristics of the geological formation. Furthermore, substantial changes can significantly compromise cap-rock integrity (i.e. the barrier to upward flow of buoyant CO2) through the formation fractures and/or the reactivation of existing fractures or faults.The objective of my fellowship is to address the fundamental uncertainty related to reservoir stress as a response to the geological storage of CO2. The fellowship aims to make a step change in quantifying the uncertainty and risks due to the injection and storage of CO2 in geological storage sites. To accomplish this, the research will develop and advance current approaches in building complex hydro-mechanical models using seismic data, and develop methods to calibrate state-of-the-art hydro-mechanical modelling tools using seismic and surface deformation data. The main outcomes or the fellowship are to significantly improve our ability to:(i) assess the safety of geological storage sites in the early stages of development to reduce uncertainty and risk, and (ii) use integrated model predictions to provide a forecasting and mitigating tool to describe the behaviour of geological storage sites due to the injection and storage of CO2.The fellowship will be conducted at the University of Leeds. The research environment at Leeds will allow me to continue to develop my CCS research, while working with some of the key people in this field. Prof Quentin Fisher has been the driving force behind integrated hydro-mechanics and petro-physics; Prof Bruce Yardley is at the forefront in researching geochemical effects of CO2 injection and fluid-rock; Prof Peter Taylor was former Division Head of the Technology Policy Division in CCS at the International Energy Agency; Prof Andrew Gouldson has proven experience in the policy and risk analysis of low carbon technologies; and Prof Andrew Shepherd has strong expertise in developing novel applications of InSAR to monitor surface deformation in complex terrains.