PV2025 - Potential Costs and Benefits of Photovoltaics for UK-Infrastructure and Society

PV2025 - 光伏发电对英国基础设施和社会的潜在成本和效益

• 批准号: EP/K02227X/1
• 负责人: Ralph Gottschalg
• 金额: $ 130.36万
• 依托单位: Loughborough University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2013
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2013 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FK02227X%2F1
• 关键词: PV2025; Potential; Costs; Benefits; Photovoltaics

The installation of photovoltaics today is largely evaluated in terms of quantity and the success of any market stimulation evaluated on the basis of how well the targets are met. This may cause significant problems for the national infrastructure and may lead to significant unnecessary costs for grid stabilisation. However, these factors are sometimes assessed too simplistically. When considering PV in a national context, it is also largely seen as a homogenous swarm of devices, i.e. all of them reacting rather similarly. This does not consider different orientations (system elevation determines the seasonal maximum, system orientation determines the daily maximum) or regional differences in the environmental conditions such as weather fronts passing in a matter of days over the country rather than instantaneously or the North experiencing a different weather front than the South; nationwide smoothing might very well limit the need for power control. Thus the overarching question in this proposal is 'How can we maximise the benefits and limit the costs for UK plc while having a vibrant PV market?'. The work is split into four topical areas (work-packages), which answer the four key questions:- How much PV are we likely to get with different policies and where is it likely to be installed? This will consider different socio-economic drivers, cost curves of PV and work on installation scenarios giving links to likely social background of installations, locations (as in regions) and quantities.- How much energy will this generate when and where? Based on current installations a model for the performance prediction of systems based on their post-code will be developed and validated against existing FIT data and other available monitoring data. A spin-off of this activity will be the widespread investigation of current installations, that will inform any further discussions on subsidy streams, and the potential for detailed condition monitoring with sparse data will be investigated. The model will be connected with the socio-economic drivers to stochastically locate future installations (using GIS and post-code classifiers), and estimate the energy yield for each system and aggregate to generation regions. This means that essentially for every system (which is today in the range of 400000 systems under the FIT) installed an hourly generation needs to be calculated, which will require very complex speed optimisation in the calculations.- How will it impact the infrastructure? Grid simulations will be carried out bottom up as well as top down to see if there are issues either locally or nationally with the proposed installations. This will allow the recommendation of further measures to strengthen infrastructure and will allow a cost-benefit analysis of PV technology to be undertaken.- What feedback will there be? Most policies will have effects on the questions above and thus it is foreseen that a feedback methodology will be created, calculating the costs/benefits for UK plc as well as evaluating likely responses of the policy makers and grid operators.The collaboration between the different groups will be tightly managed, so that the project outcomes interface well. Tools will be generated and made available with non-proprietary data for public use.

如今，光伏发电的安装很大程度上是根据数量来评估的，任何市场刺激的成功与否都是根据目标的实现程度来评估的。这可能会给国家基础设施带来重大问题，并可能导致电网稳定产生大量不必要的成本。然而，有时对这些因素的评估过于简单化。在国家背景下考虑光伏发电时，它在很大程度上也被视为同质的设备群，即所有这些设备的反应都非常相似。这没有考虑不同的方向（系统海拔决定季节最大值，系统方向决定每日最大值）或环境条件的区域差异，例如天气锋面在几天内经过全国而不是瞬时，或者北方经历与南方不同的天气锋面；全国范围内的平滑很可能会限制电力控制的需要。因此，该提案中的首要问题是“我们如何在拥有充满活力的光伏市场的同时最大限度地提高英国公司的利益并限制其成本？”。这项工作分为四个主题领域（工作包），回答了四个关键问题：- 通过不同的政策，我们可能获得多少光伏发电以及可能安装在哪里？这将考虑不同的社会经济驱动因素、光伏成本曲线以及安装场景工作，提供与安装的可能社会背景、位置（如地区）和数量的联系。-这将在何时何地产生多少能源？基于当前的安装，将开发一个基于后置代码的系统性能预测模型，并根据现有的 FIT 数据和其他可用的监控数据进行验证。这项活动的一个副产品将是对当前设施的广泛调查，这将为有关补贴流的任何进一步讨论提供信息，并且将调查利用稀疏数据进行详细状态监测的潜力。该模型将与社会经济驱动因素相联系，以随机定位未来的装置（使用 GIS 和邮政编码分类器），并估计每个系统的能源产量并汇总到发电区域。这意味着基本上每个安装的系统（目前在 FIT 下有 400000 个系统）都需要计算每小时的发电量，这将需要在计算中进行非常复杂的速度优化。 - 它将如何影响基础设施？电网模拟将自下而上和自上而下地进行，以查看拟议的安装是否存在本地或全国性问题。这将有助于提出加强基础设施的进一步措施的建议，并对光伏技术进行成本效益分析。- 将会得到什么反馈？大多数政策都会对上述问题产生影响，因此预计将创建一种反馈方法，计算 UK plc 的成本/收益，并评估政策制定者和电网运营商可能的反应。不同团体之间的合作将得到严格管理，以便项目成果能够很好地衔接。将生成工具并将其与非专有数据一起提供给公众使用。

项目成果

Improved Model for Circumsolar Irradiance Calculation as an Extended Light Source and Spectral Implications for High-Concentration Photovoltaic Devices

• DOI: 10.1109/jphotov.2015.2493362
• 发表时间: 2016
• 期刊: IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics
• 影响因子: 3
• 作者: I. Cole;R. Gottschalg

Probabilistic Graphical Models

概率图形模型

• DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-11433-0_3
• 发表时间: 2014
• 作者: Ben Mrad A

Modelling CPV

建模 CPV

• 发表时间: 2015
• 作者: Cole Ian R.

Comparison of Solar Radiation and PV Generation Variability with System Dispersion in the UK

英国太阳辐射和光伏发电变化与系统分散度的比较

• 发表时间: 2016
• 作者: Koubli E

Impact of data quality on photovoltaic (PV) performance assessment

数据质量对光伏（PV）性能评估的影响

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Koubli Eleni