World Production Potential and Costs of Japonica Rice

本研究始于1991年，主要研究美国的粳稻生产。此后，除1994财政年度外，一直持续到1998年3月。总的来说，世界粳稻的生产潜力是巨大的。粳稻增产潜力主要有三种类型：ⅰ型——稻田增产潜力。巴西南部、乌拉圭、阿根廷、中国黑龙江省和西非国家均有此类地区。在南美洲南部，这些地区目前被用作牧场。这片面积约为日本国土面积3倍的巨大平坦开阔地带，有相当一部分可以改造成水田。在黑龙江，沼泽地区和旱田正以令人难以置信的速度被改造成水田。1980年全省水田面积仅约40万公顷，1997年已达140万公顷。在西非，由于疾病问题和缺乏投资资金而没有用于农业的稻田的潜在开发面积可能超过1000万公顷。II型——从籼稻到粳稻的潜在转变。籼稻/粳稻的产量取决于市场价格。由于一种水稻的市场价格比另一种更可取，因此在适合种植粳稻的地区可能会种植籼稻。在中国中部沿海地区，从籼稻到粳稻的转变是巨大的。国内消费者对粳稻的偏好往往高于籼稻，粳稻的市场价格往往更高。因此，尽管粳稻的产量低于籼稻，但该地区的农民正在改变生产方式。美国南部的水稻生产极有可能从籼稻转向粳稻。然而，目前籼米的国内价格对生产商来说是更可取的；因此，衬衫的速度很慢。在亚热带和热带地区，不适宜种植粳稻。东南亚国家的一些地区正在进行许多试验，并取得了成功。这方面还需要更多的研究。第三类——潜在的产量增长。在加利福尼亚和黑龙江省都有观测到。加州的产量稳步增长，达到每公顷近8吨（以糙米为基础）。根据过去四十年的增长过程，没有迹象表明进一步的增长是有限的。在黑龙江，面积和产量都有增长。在粳稻品质改良方面，美国阿肯色州的Koshihikari水稻成功生产了不倒伏的水稻，这在世界上是一个严重的问题。通过引入间隔驱法，改进了阿肯色州的生产工艺。他们花了两年时间才把这件事办好。与此同时，东南亚国家生产的日本品种大米口感质量较差。值得在该地区进行试验以改进它。本研究的资金和时间不允许我们对东欧和前苏联地区的粳稻生产潜力进行研究。这个地区似乎存在着相当大的潜力。建议进行详细调查。少

This study was originally started in 1991 focusing on japonica rice production in the U.S.Since then, except for the fiscal year 1994, it has been continuously conducted until March 1998. Overall, it was found that potential production of japonica rice in the world was enormous. There are three major types of potential increases in japonica rice production : TypeI--potential increase in paddy fields. This type of areas are observed in Southern part of Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Heilongjiang Province in China and West African countries. In the southern South America, those areas are currently used for pasture. Some considerable part of this huge flat open areas, which is about 3 times as large as the size of Japan, can be converted to paddy fields. In Heilongjiang, swampy area and upland fields are being converted to paddy fields at an unbelievably fast pace. Paddy fields in the Province was only about 400,000 ha in 1980 but it was 1.4 million ha in 1997. In West Africa, potential area … More s to be developed for paddy fields may be over 10 million ha which are not used for agriculture due to disease problems and lack of investment funding.Type II--potential shift from indica rice to japonica rice. Production of indica/japonica rices depend on market prices. Because market prices are preferable on one kind over the other, indica rices might be produced in an area where japonica rice production is also suitable. In Central China along the coast, the shift from indica to japonica rices is tremendous. The domestic consumers often prefer japonica rice over indica and market prices of japonica prices are always greater. Accordingly, producers in the area are shifting the production system despite the fact that the yields of japonica rice is smaller than indica. Rice production in the South in the U.S.holds a great potential to shift from indica to japonica. However, domestic prices of indica rice currently are preferable for the producers ; therefore, shirts are very slow. In semi-tropical and tropical areas, japonica rice production was considered unsuitable. Many trials are being conducted and successfully produced in some areas in Southeast Asian countries. More researches are needed in this respect.Type III--potential increases in yields. These are observed in California and Heilongjiang Province. Yields in California have been growing steadily reaching nearly 8 tons per ha (brown rice basis). According to the growing process during the last four decades, there is no indication that further growth is limited. In Heilongjiang, there is a growth in both areas and yields.Regarding quality improvement of japonica rice, Koshihikari rice in Arkansas was produced successfully without lodging which is a serious problem all over the world. Production technology in Arkansas was improved by introducing the interval flooding method. It took them for two years to conduct it properly. Meanwhile, taste quality of Japanese variety rice produced in Southeast Asian countries is rather poor. It is worth while conducting tests to improve it in the area.The fund and time of this study did not allow us to conduct a research on potential japonica rice production in the Easter Europe and the former Soviet Union areas. It seems that there are fairly large potential exist in the area. Detailed investigation is recommended. Less