World Production Potential and Costs of Japonica Rice

世界粳稻生产潜力和成本

• 批准号: 07041059
• 负责人: ITO Shoichi
• 金额: $ 20.61万
• 依托单位: Tottori University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for international Scientific Research
• 财政年份: 1995
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1995 至 1997
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-07041059/
• 关键词: Japonica rice; Marketing; Production potential; Production costs; World

This study was originally started in 1991 focusing on japonica rice production in the U.S.Since then, except for the fiscal year 1994, it has been continuously conducted until March 1998. Overall, it was found that potential production of japonica rice in the world was enormous. There are three major types of potential increases in japonica rice production : TypeI--potential increase in paddy fields. This type of areas are observed in Southern part of Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Heilongjiang Province in China and West African countries. In the southern South America, those areas are currently used for pasture. Some considerable part of this huge flat open areas, which is about 3 times as large as the size of Japan, can be converted to paddy fields. In Heilongjiang, swampy area and upland fields are being converted to paddy fields at an unbelievably fast pace. Paddy fields in the Province was only about 400,000 ha in 1980 but it was 1.4 million ha in 1997. In West Africa, potential area … More s to be developed for paddy fields may be over 10 million ha which are not used for agriculture due to disease problems and lack of investment funding.Type II--potential shift from indica rice to japonica rice. Production of indica/japonica rices depend on market prices. Because market prices are preferable on one kind over the other, indica rices might be produced in an area where japonica rice production is also suitable. In Central China along the coast, the shift from indica to japonica rices is tremendous. The domestic consumers often prefer japonica rice over indica and market prices of japonica prices are always greater. Accordingly, producers in the area are shifting the production system despite the fact that the yields of japonica rice is smaller than indica. Rice production in the South in the U.S.holds a great potential to shift from indica to japonica. However, domestic prices of indica rice currently are preferable for the producers ; therefore, shirts are very slow. In semi-tropical and tropical areas, japonica rice production was considered unsuitable. Many trials are being conducted and successfully produced in some areas in Southeast Asian countries. More researches are needed in this respect.Type III--potential increases in yields. These are observed in California and Heilongjiang Province. Yields in California have been growing steadily reaching nearly 8 tons per ha (brown rice basis). According to the growing process during the last four decades, there is no indication that further growth is limited. In Heilongjiang, there is a growth in both areas and yields.Regarding quality improvement of japonica rice, Koshihikari rice in Arkansas was produced successfully without lodging which is a serious problem all over the world. Production technology in Arkansas was improved by introducing the interval flooding method. It took them for two years to conduct it properly. Meanwhile, taste quality of Japanese variety rice produced in Southeast Asian countries is rather poor. It is worth while conducting tests to improve it in the area.The fund and time of this study did not allow us to conduct a research on potential japonica rice production in the Easter Europe and the former Soviet Union areas. It seems that there are fairly large potential exist in the area. Detailed investigation is recommended. Less

这项研究最初于1991年开始，重点关注美国的粳稻生产。此后，除1994财年外，一直持续进行到1998年3月。总体而言，发现世界粳稻生产潜力巨大。粳稻增产潜力主要有以下三种类型： I型——稻田增产潜力。巴西南部、乌拉圭、阿根廷、中国黑龙江省和西非国家都有此类地区。在南美洲南部，这些地区目前被用作牧场。这片巨大的平坦空地（大约是日本国土面积的3倍）的相当一部分可以改造成水田。在黑龙江，沼泽地和旱地正在以令人难以置信的速度转变为水田。 1980年，该省的稻田面积只有约40万公顷，但1997年已达到140万公顷。在西非，潜在的可开发稻田面积可能超过1000万公顷，由于病害问题和缺乏投资资金，这些稻田没有用于农业。第二类——从籼稻转向粳稻的潜在转变。籼稻/粳稻的产量取决于市场价格。由于其中一种稻米的市场价格优于另一种稻米，因此籼稻米可能在也适合生产粳稻的地区生产。在中国中部沿海地区，籼稻向粳稻的转变是巨大的。国内消费者通常更喜欢粳稻而不是籼稻，并且粳稻的市场价格总是较高。因此，尽管粳稻的产量低于籼稻，但该地区的生产者正在改变生产系统。美国南部的水稻生产具有从籼稻转向粳稻的巨大潜力。然而，目前国内籼稻价格对生产者来说更为有利；因此，衬衫的速度非常慢。在亚热带和热带地区，粳稻生产被认为不适宜。东南亚国家部分地区正在进行多次试验并成功生产。这方面还需要更多的研究。第三类——产量的潜在增加。这些现象在加利福尼亚州和黑龙江省都有观察到。加利福尼亚州的产量一直在稳步增长，达到每公顷近 8 吨（以糙米计）。从过去四十年的增长过程来看，没有迹象表明进一步的增长受到限制。黑龙江省面积和产量双双增长。在粳稻品质改良方面，阿肯色州越光稻成功生产出无倒伏这一世界性严重问题。阿肯色州的生产技术通过引入区间驱油方法得到改进。他们花了两年的时间才妥善地进行这项工作。同时，东南亚国家生产的日本品种米的口感品质较差。本研究的资金和时间不允许我们对复活节欧洲和前苏联地区的粳稻生产潜力进行研究。看来该地区还有相当大的潜力。建议进行详细调查。较少的

项目成果

T.Kako,M.Gemma,S.Ito: "Projections and Policy Implications of Supply and Demand of Rice in South Korea." Journal of Agricultural Economics,Kobe University,. 28/29. 1-41 (1995)

T.Kako、M.Gemma、S.Ito：“韩国大米供需的预测和政策影响”。

伊東正一: "輸出競争力の強化を目指すアメリカの新農業法" 農業と経済. 62-9. 17-24 (1996)

Shoichi Ito：“美国新农业法旨在加强出口竞争力”《农业与经济学》62-9（1996）。

Takeuchi, Keiji, Shoichi Ito and others: "Changing Relationship Between Stocks-to-use Ratios and Market Prices (in Jpanese)" Japanese Journal of Farm Management. (in print).

Takeuchi、Keiji、Shoichi Ito 等人：“库存使用比率与市场价格之间关系的变化（日语）”《日本农场管理杂志》。

Mainali, Bharat ほか: "Reform Process and Rice Economies in Vietnam: Transition from a Centrally Planned to a Market System." Journal of the Faculty of Agriculture,Tottori University.Vol.33. l5-24 (1997)

Mainali, Bharat 等人：“越南的改革进程和稻米经济：从中央计划体制到市场体制的转变”，鸟取大学农业学院杂志，第 33 卷（1997 年）。

伊東 正一: "世界のジャポニカ米" 『JA経営実務』巻頭言「私の提言」の欄. 1997年7月号. 5 (1997)

伊藤庄一：《世界粳米》《JA管理实践》前言《我的建议》专栏1997年7月5日。