Energy Saving Innovations and Economy-Wide Rebound Effects

拟议的项目旨在估计英国境内各种类型的能源效率改进所节省的能源和碳，并调查如何通过各种类型的反弹效应来抵消这些节省。它旨在扩大和增加对反弹效应主题的研究，特别是创新和能源需求中心目前正在进行的研究的价值。当提高效率的创新所节省的能源部分（或全部）被对廉价能源服务的各种经济反应所抵消时，就会产生反弹效应。例如，如果一个家庭安装了一个冷凝锅炉，使用较少的气体来产生一定量的热水，这可能会鼓励他们加热他们的家更长的时间和/或更高的温度，从而抵消了一些潜在的能源节省。这被称为直接反弹效应。此外，节省下来的汽油费将用于购买其他商品和服务，如购买新电视。这种变化和额外的消费可能涉及家庭的直接能源使用，但也间接使用能源，这些能源“嵌入”在英国和国外供应链不同阶段的所有商品和服务中。这些被称为间接反弹效应。此外，消费模式的转变也可能改变对当地生产和进口货物相对于出口的需求，从而影响到一系列市场和区域的经济活动、价格、收入、能源消费和碳排放。这些被称为经济全面反弹效应。类似的机制也适用于钢铁制造商等生产商提高能效的成本效益。能源效率的提高降低了能源服务的边际成本，从而鼓励生产者更多地使用这些服务。较低的投入成本可以降低产出价格，这反过来又会增加产出、提高生产率并提高效率提高的行业和下游行业（例如白色商品制造业）的竞争力。这将鼓励整个经济中增加活动和能源使用。同样，随着价格和收入的调整以及生产和消费决策的改变，各种间接的和整个经济的反弹效应将发挥作用。这些不同机制的净效应可能非常显著，并可能破坏英国能源效率政策目标的实现。然而，虽然这些效应的存在是公认的，但关于这些效应大小的证据仍然有限，相互矛盾和有争议。所吸取的教训也证明难以传达给政策和利益攸关方受众，其结果是反弹效应继续被广泛忽视和/或误解，目前的CIED研究采用了一系列技术来估计个别能源服务的直接反弹效应。然而，这只是故事的一部分-而且可能只是一小部分。拟议的项目将通过以下方式增加这一活动的价值：第一，将重点从个别部门和服务扩展到整个联合王国经济;第二，将沿着国际供应链对能源使用和排放的影响包括在内;第三，纳入范围更广的经济机制。它将调查工业和家庭能源使用效率提高的影响，特别侧重于投资和能源供应决定在确定反弹的不同因素方面的作用。中心目标是澄清和推进关于不同部门不同类型节能创新的直接、间接和整个经济反弹效应的来源、性质、决定因素和规模的知识和证据基础。此外，该项目旨在有效地向各种受众传达结果的影响。

The proposed project seeks to estimate the energy and carbon savings from various types of energy efficiency improvement within the UK, and to investigate how these may be offset by various types of rebound effect. It seeks to expand and add value to the growing research on the topic of rebound effects, including in particular the research that currently being conducted by the Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand (CIED). Rebound effects occur where the potential energy savings from efficiency-enhancing innovations are partially (or wholly) offset by a variety of economic responses to cheaper energy services. For example, if a household installs a condensing boiler that uses less gas to produce a given amount of hot water, this may encourage them to heat their homes for longer and/or to a higher temperature, thereby offsetting some of the potential energy savings. This is termed a direct rebound effect. In addition, any money saved on gas bills will be spent on other goods and services, such as buying a new TV. This changed and additional consumption may involve direct energy use by the household, but also indirect use of the energy that is 'embedded' in all goods and services from different stages of their supply chain, both in the UK and abroad. These are termed indirect rebound effects. Moreover, shifts in consumption patterns may also change the demand for locally produced and imported goods relative to exports, thereby impacting on economic activity, prices, incomes, energy consumption and carbon emissions in a range of markets and regions. These are termed economy wide rebound effects. Similar mechanisms apply to cost-effective energy efficiency improvements by producers, such as steel manufacturers. Energy efficiency improvements lower the marginal cost of energy services, thus encouraging increased use of those services by the producer. Lower input costs permit reductions in output prices, which will in turn increase output, boost productivity and improve competiveness both in the sector where efficiency improves and down-stream (e.g. in white goods manufacture). This will encourage increased activity and energy use throughout the economy. Again, a variety of indirect and economy-wide rebound effects will come into play as prices and incomes adjust and as production and consumption decisions change. The net effect of these various mechanisms may be very significant and could potentially undermine achievement of the objectives of UK energy efficiency policies.However, while the existence of such effects is well established, the evidence on the size of these effects remains limited, contradictory and controversial. The lessons learned have also proved to difficult to communicate to policy and stakeholder audiences, with the result that rebound effects continue to be widely ignored and/or misunderstood.The current CIED research applies a range of techniques to estimate the direct rebound effects for individual energy services. However, this is only a part of the story - and potentially just a small part. The proposed project will add value to this activity by: first, extending the focus from individual sectors and services to the whole UK economy; second, by including the impacts on energy use and emissions along international supply chains; and third, incorporating a much wider range of economic mechanisms. It will investigate the impacts of improved efficiency in both industrial and household energy use, focusing in particular on the role of investment and energy supply decisions in determining different elements of rebound. The central aim is to clarify and advance the knowledge and evidence base regarding the source, nature, determinants and magnitude of direct, indirect and economy-wide rebound effects from different types of energy-saving innovations in different sectors. Moreover, the project aims effectively to communicate the implications of the results to various audiences.