WATER RESILIENT CITIES:CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY & URBAN VULNERABILITY to HYDROHAZARDS

水力城市：气候不确定性

• 批准号: EP/N030419/1
• 负责人: Lindsay Beevers
• 金额: $ 133万
• 依托单位: Heriot-Watt University
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2016 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FN030419%2F1
• 关键词: WATER; RESILIENT; CITIES; CLIMATE; UNCERTAINTY

Cities are the driver of regional, national and indeed global economies. The complex inter-relationship between urban areas and their hinterlands is a vital aspect of a city's economic success. Hinterlands supply resources such as water, food and energy; while being economically-tied to the urban area through trade. Creating resilient, sustainable, water-secure cities depends on our understanding of the potential future risks of changing hydro-hazards (floods and droughts) and our ability to increase our resilience to them. Worldwide, in 2014, hydro-hazards resulted in over $16Bn (floods) and $7.5Bn (droughts) in damages. While, in the UK over the past five years there have been significant challenges to water management posed by hydro hazards. Since 2000, flooding has caused over £5Bn worth of damage, of which £3Bn was caused by the 2007 floods, and over £1Bn from the 2013/14 winter storms, impacting households and businesses alike. Similarly direct costs (estimated at £70-165M) from the recent UK drought (2011-12) arose from impacts to urban water supplies, and industry. Projections of future climate recognise that there is an added uncertainty in temperature and precipitation trends which may exacerbate the frequency and severity of such hazards. To respond to the stated challenge of transforming our cities to be resilient, sustainable urban centres and in the context of 'adapting to and mitigating climate change', I will quantify uncertainty in future hydro-hazards and design engineering/policy interventions to increase urban resilience which informs future urban water security adaptation for cities and their hinterlands. My fellowship will:1. quantify future urban hydro-hazard uncertainty in a warming climate using novel techniques,2. design engineering and policy interventions to mitigate the risk arising from these uncertainties, and3. improve urban living through enhanced resilience to hydro-hazards.I will achieve this by capturing uncertainty in hydro-hazard events and cascading this through to hazard assessment, challenging the current deterministic paradigm. I will characterise the vulnerability profile of newly exposed populations or sectors, and develop a ground breaking systems approach to ameliorate risk in order to design transformative resilience strategies. The delivery of this vision is challenging yet possible through combining advances in uncertainty quantification from a variety of fields, with my research which has consistently sought to challenge the deterministic paradigm. Awarding this fellowship will create a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the role of climate projections on the systematic risk to urban living and how such risks can be addressed.Output will include: 1. detailed understanding of the change to hydro hazards across the UK as a result of climate projections (and associated uncertainty), communicated in the context of climate variability,2. probabilistic frameworks to capture climate uncertainty into assessments of systematic risk posed by changing hydro hazards at the urban scale,3. analysis of the changing urban vulnerability, the uncertainty associated with this and exploration of the newly exposed population using new, and highly discretised vulnerability metrics,4. a systems approach to urban resilience to changing hydro hazards, and5. resilience strategies; e.g. transformative engineering interventions.

城市是区域、国家乃至全球经济的驱动力。城市地区及其腹地之间复杂的相互关系是城市经济成功的一个重要方面。腹地提供水、食物和能源等资源；同时通过贸易与城市地区建立经济联系。创建有复原力、可持续、水安全的城市取决于我们对不断变化的水灾（洪水和干旱）未来潜在风险的了解以及我们增强应对这些风险的能力。 2014 年，水灾在全球范围内造成了超过 160 亿美元（洪水）和 75 亿美元（干旱）的损失。与此同时，在过去的五年里，英国的水管理面临着水灾带来的重大挑战。自2000年以来，洪水已造成价值超过50亿英镑的损失，其中2007年的洪水造成了30亿英镑的损失，2013/2014年的冬季风暴造成了超过10亿英镑的损失，对家庭和企业都造成了影响。同样，近期英国干旱（2011-12 年）造成的直接成本（估计为 70-1.65 亿英镑）源于对城市供水和工业的影响。对未来气候的预测表明，温度和降水趋势存在额外的不确定性，这可能会加剧此类灾害的发生频率和严重程度。为了应对将我们的城市转变为具有复原力、可持续发展的城市中心的既定挑战，并在“适应和缓解气候变化”的背景下，我将量化未来水灾的不确定性，并设计工程/政策干预措施，以提高城市的复原力，从而为城市及其腹地未来的城市水安全适应提供信息。我的团契将：1。使用新技术量化气候变暖中未来城市水灾的不确定性，2。设计工程和政策干预措施以减轻这些不确定性产生的风险，以及3。通过增强对水灾的抵御能力来改善城市生活。我将通过捕捉水灾事件的不确定性并将其级联到灾害评估来实现这一目标，挑战当前的确定性范式。我将描述新暴露人群或部门的脆弱性概况，并开发一种突破性的系统方法来减轻风险，以便设计变革性的弹性策略。通过将各个领域的不确定性量化方面的进步与我一直致力于挑战确定性范式的研究相结合，实现这一愿景具有挑战性，但也是可能的。授予该奖学金将创造一个独特的机会，以提高我们对气候预测对城市生活系统性风险的作用以及如何解决此类风险的理解。产出将包括：1.详细了解气候预测（以及相关的不确定性）对英国各地水灾灾害的变化，并在气候变化的背景下进行沟通，2。概率框架，用于将气候不确定性纳入对城市范围内不断变化的水灾灾害所带来的系统风险的评估中，3。分析不断变化的城市脆弱性、与之相关的不确定性，并使用新的、高度离散的脆弱性指标探索新暴露的人口，4。城市应对不断变化的水灾灾害的系统方法，以及5。复原力策略；例如变革性的工程干预。

项目成果

Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections

• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1
• 发表时间: 2023-11
• 期刊: Climatic Change
• 影响因子: 4.8
• 作者: G. Aitken;Lindsay Beevers;Simon Parry;Katie Facer-Childs

Multi-Level Monte Carlo Models for Flood Inundation Uncertainty Quantification

洪水淹没不确定性量化的多级蒙特卡罗模型

• DOI: 10.1029/2022wr032599
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Water Resources Research
• 影响因子: 5.4
• 作者: Aitken G

EGU 2019 - Interactive PICO presentation - Spatio-temporal representation of the change and uncertainty in compound hydro-hazard extremes across the UK

EGU 2019 - 交互式 PICO 演示 - 英国复合水灾极端事件的变化和不确定性的时空表示

• DOI: 10.13140/rg.2.2.18572.26249
• 发表时间: 2019
• 作者: Annie Visser-Quinn

The influence of climate model uncertainty on fluvial flood hazard estimation

气候模型不确定性对河流洪水灾害估算的影响

• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Natural Hazards
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Beever L

Urban Systems: Mapping Interdependencies and Outcomes to Support Systems Thinking

• DOI: 10.1029/2019ef001389
• 发表时间: 2020-03
• 期刊: Earth's Future
• 作者: M. Bedinger;L. Beevers;Guy H. Walker;A. Visser-Quinn;K. McClymont