ESTIMATE OF FINANCIAL LIABILITY FOR LONG-TERM CARE

预测老年人的健康和功能状况（以及 年龄最大的老年人）人口将是有用的设计和定价 LTC保险产品，确保长期财务稳定 有资本的医疗保健提供者组织（如社会HMO） 以及在规划住宅设施时， 健康、护理和机构护理服务（即，“生活护理” 社区）。 此外，后一种组织需要 确定理想的市场。 药物和设备制造商 还需要估计市场规模。 生产此类 估计和预测，虽然重要的范围广泛， 保险和医疗保健提供商业务，代表了一个 投入大量的时间和资源来开发 预测和局部区域估计技术， 必要的数据资源。 尽管它们很有价值， 即使是大公司也会独立承担这样的责任， 时间和金钱的投资。 我觉得， 证明）有一个商业市场， 专业私营企业提供详细的预测， 老年人的健康和功能状况。 在第一阶段，我们 确定的主要数据来源、预测方法和 相关的预测软件，可以用来提供 “国家的最先进的”预测的健康和功能状态， 老年人口。 在第二阶段，我们提供详细的 工作计划，说明如何将这些资源转化为 商业上可销售的一揽子预测服务， 信息产品。

Forecasts of the health and functional status of the elderly (and oldest old) population would be useful in designing and pricing LTC insurance products, assuring the long term financial stability of capitated health care provider organizations (like Social HMOs) and in the planning of residential facilities which integrate home health, nursing, and institutional care services (i.e., "life care" communities). In addition, the latter organizations need to identify desirable markets. Drug and equipment manufacturers also need estimates of market size. The production of such estimates and forecasts though important for a wide range of insurance and health care provider businesses, represents a considerable investment of time and resources to develop the forecasting and local area estimation technologies and the necessary data resources. Despite their value it is unlikely that even large corporations would independently undertake such an investment of both time and money. Thus, we feel (and have demonstrated) that there is a commercial market for a specialized private enterprise to provide detailed forecasts of the health and functional status of the elderly. In Phase I, we identified major data resources, forecasting methodologies and associated forecasting software that could be used to provide "state-of-the-art" forecasts of the health and functional status of the elderly populations. In Phase II, we provide a detailed workplan to show how these resources can be converted into a commercially marketable package of forecasting services and information products.