ESTIMATE OF FINANCIAL LIABILITY FOR LONG-TERM CARE

长期护理的财务责任估计

• 批准号: 3505810
• 负责人: JAMES C VERTREES
• 金额: $ 23.95万
• 依托单位: SOLON CONSULTING GROUP, LTD.
• 依托单位国家: 美国
• 财政年份: 1986
• 资助国家: 美国
• 起止时间: 1986-08-15 至 1991-03-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/3505810
• 关键词: disease /disorder proneness /risk; extended care; health care cost /financing; health care model; health surveys; human morbidity; human mortality; human old age (65+); human population dynamics; information systems; longevity; mathematical model; mathematics; medical records; model design /development; questionnaires; statistics /biometry

Forecasts of the health and functional status of the elderly (and oldest old) population would be useful in designing and pricing LTC insurance products, assuring the long term financial stability of capitated health care provider organizations (like Social HMOs) and in the planning of residential facilities which integrate home health, nursing, and institutional care services (i.e., "life care" communities). In addition, the latter organizations need to identify desirable markets. Drug and equipment manufacturers also need estimates of market size. The production of such estimates and forecasts though important for a wide range of insurance and health care provider businesses, represents a considerable investment of time and resources to develop the forecasting and local area estimation technologies and the necessary data resources. Despite their value it is unlikely that even large corporations would independently undertake such an investment of both time and money. Thus, we feel (and have demonstrated) that there is a commercial market for a specialized private enterprise to provide detailed forecasts of the health and functional status of the elderly. In Phase I, we identified major data resources, forecasting methodologies and associated forecasting software that could be used to provide "state-of-the-art" forecasts of the health and functional status of the elderly populations. In Phase II, we provide a detailed workplan to show how these resources can be converted into a commercially marketable package of forecasting services and information products.

老年人（和老年人）健康和功能状态的预测 最年长的人口将有助于设计和定价 LTC保险产品，保障长期财务稳定 人头制医疗保健提供者组织（如社会 HMO） 以及融入家居的住宅设施规划 健康、护理和机构护理服务（即“生活护理” 社区）。 此外，后者组织需要 确定理想的市场。 药品和设备制造商 还需要估计市场规模。 此类产品的生产 估计和预测虽然对广泛的领域很重要 保险和医疗保健提供商业务代表了 投入大量的时间和资源来开发 预报和局域估计技术以及 必要的数据资源。 尽管它们很有价值，但不太可能 即使是大公司也会独立承担这样的任务 时间和金钱的双重投资。 因此，我们感觉（并且有 证明）存在一个商业市场 专业的私营企业提供详细的预测 老年人的健康和功能状况。 在第一阶段，我们 确定主要数据资源、预测方法和 相关的预测软件可用于提供 对健康和功能状态的“最先进”预测 老年人口。 在第二阶段，我们提供了详细的 工作计划，展示如何将这些资源转化为 可商业销售的预测服务包以及 信息产品。