The use of Whole Energy System Analysis in decision-making across scales

整体能源系统分析在跨尺度决策中的应用

• 批准号: EP/R002231/1
• 负责人: Jonathan Radcliffe
• 金额: $ 7.7万
• 依托单位: University of Birmingham
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2017
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2017 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FR002231%2F1
• 关键词: use; Whole; Energy; System; Analysis

Decarbonisation strategies based on whole energy system analysis are critical in the transition to a low carbon economy. Energy system integration is attracting increasing interest across scales, and scenarios show how electricity, heat and transport fuels are likely to become ever more interlinked in sustainable transitions. At the same time, whilst energy policy is largely determined centrally by the UK government, devolved and decentralised energy systems are emerging driven by technology developments and local priorities. However, policies which impact the use and supply of energy (including non-energy policies), and the related infrastructure, are dispersed across government departments and many other organisations at each level of governance, from local to national to transnational. These policies are proving to be critical to driving large-scale public and private sector investment in the energy system, with recent policy changes having been observed to damage investor confidence. This scoping study will analyse how whole energy system analysis is currently used in decision-making processes across scales, and identify ways in which the research - policy - decision-making relationship could be improved in the future. We will consider the key whole-system models and tools being used, their perceived value and limitations in representing the energy system across scales, the key channels for research-policy linkages, and how the model outputs are actually used in practice. Fundamentally, we will challenge the assumption that there is simply a 'model deficit' - i.e. that 'better' models would give better evidence, leading to better decisions and outcomes. Rather, we expect a complex interplay between the modelling, supporting research and the decision-making processes - a complexity which is especially acute when considering the multi-scalar landscape of the energy system. We must also reflect that whole energy system models should not only be developed to meet short term policy needs within an existing or anticipated paradigm, but can be tools to explore alternative futures over the longer term.We propose a novel approach to mapping the science-policy interface of whole energy system analysis across scales. By assessing this complexity in a scoping study we can begin to address the factors that are limiting the value of whole energy system modelling to decision makers across scales, and guide future work to propose ways in which the value can be increased through improvements both to the models and decision-making processes. We will examine:- processes of collaboration and exchange between actors using the models in the decision-making process, within and between scales. We will conduct preliminary case studies of policy formation and the role of modelling at UK, Scottish and an exemplar city scales (Birmingham and Leeds), covering policy-makers, the modelling community, intermediaries and the role of other stakeholders. This will allow us to describe the complexity that exists in decision making processes and compare/contrast the different case studies. - how whole systems models at different scales (international, national, local) could be more effectively integrated or reconciled, and what additional insights this would provide. We will identify promising research opportunities that may arise from developing multi-scale tools (and/or linking tools across scales) and representing new technologies that will have an impact on the energy system at different scales.

基于整个能源系统分析的脱碳策略对于向低碳经济转型至关重要。能源系统集成正在引起越来越多的关注，各种情景表明电力、热力和运输燃料在可持续转型中可能会变得更加相互关联。与此同时，虽然能源政策主要由英国政府集中决定，但在技术发展和地方优先事项的推动下，权力下放和分散的能源系统正在出现。然而，影响能源使用和供应的政策（包括非能源政策）以及相关基础设施分散在从地方到国家到跨国各个治理级别的政府部门和许多其他组织中。事实证明，这些政策对于推动大规模公共和私营部门对能源系统的投资至关重要，最近的政策变化已被观察到损害了投资者的信心。这项范围界定研究将分析整个能源系统分析目前如何在跨尺度的决策过程中使用，并确定未来改进研究-政策-决策关系的方法。我们将考虑正在使用的关键全系统模型和工具、它们在代表跨尺度能源系统方面的感知价值和局限性、研究与政策联系的关键渠道以及模型输出在实践中的实际使用方式。从根本上说，我们将挑战“模型赤字”这一假设，即“更好”的模型会提供更好的证据，从而带来更好的决策和结果。相反，我们期望建模、支持研究和决策过程之间存在复杂的相互作用——在考虑能源系统的多标量景观时，这种复杂性尤其严重。我们还必须反思，整个能源系统模型的开发不仅应该满足现有或预期范式内的短期政策需求，而且可以成为探索长期替代未来的工具。我们提出了一种绘制跨尺度整个能源系统分析的科学与政策界面的新方法。通过在范围界定研究中评估这种复杂性，我们可以开始解决限制整个能源系统建模对不同规模的决策者的价值的因素，并指导未来的工作，提出通过改进模型和决策过程来增加价值的方法。我们将研究： - 在决策过程中、尺度内和尺度间使用模型的参与者之间的协作和交流过程。我们将对英国、苏格兰和示范城市（伯明翰和利兹）的政策制定和建模作用进行初步案例研究，涵盖政策制定者、建模界、中介机构和其他利益相关者的作用。这将使我们能够描述决策过程中存在的复杂性并比较/对比不同的案例研究。 - 如何更有效地整合或协调不同规模（国际、国家、地方）的整个系统模型，以及这将提供哪些额外的见解。我们将确定开发多尺度工具（和/或跨尺度链接工具）和代表将对不同尺度的能源系统产生影响的新技术可能产生的有前景的研究机会。

项目成果

ACROSS SCALES IN ENERGY DECISION-MAKING (ASCEND) LITERATURE REVIEW

跨尺度能源决策（提升）文献综述

• 发表时间: 2017
• 作者: Nochta T

A citizen science approach for air quality monitoring in a Kenyan informal development

肯尼亚非正式开发项目中空气质量监测的公民科学方法

• DOI: 10.1016/j.cacint.2023.100105
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: City and Environment Interactions
• 影响因子: 3.3
• 作者: Manshur T

THE NETWORK APPROACH TO ANALYSING ENERGY DECISION-MAKING IN THE UK

分析英国能源决策的网络方法

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Nochta T

Net-zero: the road to low carbon heat

净零：低碳供热之路

• 发表时间: 2020
• 作者: Bilimoria, K

Participatory modelling: A review of applications in energy whole-systems modelling to support decision making

参与式建模：回顾能源全系统建模中支持决策的应用

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Bale C S E