Energy Demographics: the role of demographic data in understanding UK's demand for energy

能源人口统计：人口数据在了解英国能源需求方面的作用

• 批准号: EP/R005052/1
• 负责人: Anne Owen
• 金额: $ 41.14万
• 依托单位: University of Leeds
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FR005052%2F1
• 关键词: Energy; Demographics; role; demographic; data

It is important for the Government to be able to predict the future energy needs of UK industries, homes and transport to ensure sufficient supply. At the same time, the UK needs to plan to reduce energy use in order to meet climate change reduction targets. At the moment the UK Government uses an Energy Demand Model which makes future energy predictions based on estimates of economic growth, the price of fuel and the number of households there will be in the future. This technique for predicting future energy needs is deficient, because it fails to take account of the fact that household demand for goods and services is the major driver of the economic performance of industry, and that the way households spend today is likely to be very different in the future. My fellowship takes a 'whole systems' approach to understanding the UK's demand for energy. The link between household spends and industrial energy use can be determined by quantifying the total energy required in the supply chain of producing a product. It is also possible to capture the energy that is embedded in goods exported abroad and goods imported to the UK from other countries with very different energy efficiency standards in their factories. I will develop a new indicator of energy demand: 'the UK's Energy Footprint' which shows the full amount of energy associated with products bought by UK consumers between 2005 and 2015. I have met with the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) to ensure that this new indicator will be reported alongside the Carbon Footprint.Instead of simply looking at the changing goods and services bought by an average household, this fellowship will consider the differing expenditure profile of up to 60 different household types between 2005 and 2015. For this, I will use geodemographic expenditure profiles developed by CallCredit, a credit reference company. The main user of geodemographic data is the business sector understanding their consumers, so it is important that the data is current and constantly kept up-to-date. Producers of this type of data do not keep previous years' profiles as a readily available product. This means that their data has never been used to understand the changing geodemographic profile in the UK or elsewhere. I have made an agreement with CallCredit to exclusively acquire a decade's worth of expenditure data from their archive. This means that it will be possible for the first time to determine whether the energy needs of the UK have altered due to households buying different types of products or whether the change is due to the mix of households in the UK changing. I will use mathematical analyses to calculate the drivers of the change in UK energy demand. The research will be able to determine what effect the recession had on the energy demand of different households. I will then focus on using predictions of the changing household types and predictions on how lifestyles may change in the future to estimate what the UK's demand for energy will be in 2030. There is uncertainty as to how the UK's infrastructure might have to change in order to cope with an aging population or the trend for homeworking. This fellowship will address this by determining the energy requirements of these futures by forming scenarios which calculate the UK's energy needs when there are greater proportions of these types of household present in the UK's demography. Outputs from this research will also be used to verify the BEIS's future energy demand scenarios and provide new inputs to their Energy Demand Model. This work therefore has great importance in ensuring the UK can meet the energy needs of its businesses and people, and become more sustainable, now and in the future.

政府必须能够预测英国工业、家庭和交通的未来能源需求，以确保充足的供应。与此同时，英国需要计划减少能源使用，以实现气候变化减排目标。目前，英国政府使用能源需求模型，根据对经济增长、燃料价格和未来家庭数量的估计，对未来能源进行预测。这种预测未来能源需求的方法是有缺陷的，因为它没有考虑到家庭对商品和服务的需求是工业经济绩效的主要驱动力，而且家庭今天的支出方式在未来可能会大不相同。我的奖学金需要一个“整体系统”的方法来了解英国的能源需求。家庭支出和工业能源使用之间的联系可以通过量化生产产品的供应链所需的总能源来确定。它也可以捕获嵌入在出口到国外的商品和从其他国家进口到英国的商品中的能源，这些国家的工厂具有非常不同的能源效率标准。我将开发一个新的能源需求指标：“英国的能源足迹”，它显示了2005年至2015年期间英国消费者购买的产品所使用的全部能源。我已经与商业、能源和工业战略部（BEIS）进行了会谈，以确保这一新指标将与碳足迹一起报告。该奖学金将考虑2005年至2015年期间多达60种不同家庭类型的不同支出情况，而不是简单地关注普通家庭购买的不断变化的商品和服务。为此，我将使用信用参考公司CallCredit开发的地理人口支出概况。地理人口数据的主要用户是了解其消费者的商业部门，因此数据是最新的并不断更新是很重要的。这类数据的编制者并不将往年的概况作为一种随时可用的产品。这意味着他们的数据从未被用于了解英国或其他地方不断变化的地理人口概况。我已经和CallCredit达成协议，从他们的档案中独家获取十年的支出数据。这意味着它将首次有可能确定英国的能源需求是否由于家庭购买不同类型的产品而发生变化，或者这种变化是否是由于英国家庭的组合发生变化。我将使用数学分析来计算英国能源需求变化的驱动因素。这项研究将能够确定经济衰退对不同家庭的能源需求产生了什么影响。然后，我将重点关注使用不断变化的家庭类型的预测和未来生活方式可能如何变化的预测，以估计英国的能源需求将在2030年。英国的基础设施可能不得不如何改变，以科普人口老龄化或在家工作的趋势，这是不确定的。该奖学金将通过确定这些未来的能源需求来解决这个问题，通过形成计算英国能源需求的情景，当英国人口中存在更大比例的这些类型的家庭时。这项研究的结果也将用于验证BEIS未来的能源需求情景，并为其能源需求模型提供新的输入。因此，这项工作对于确保英国能够满足其企业和人民的能源需求，并在现在和未来变得更加可持续具有重要意义。

项目成果

sj-pdf-1-anr-10.1177_20530196211038658 - Supplemental material for Net national metabolism as a fine-scale metric of energetic biophysical size in an industrialised country

sj-pdf-1-anr-10.1177_20530196211038658 - 净国民代谢的补充材料作为工业化国家能量生物物理规模的精细度量

• DOI: 10.25384/sage.16450511
• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Eriksson F

Untangling the drivers of energy reduction in the UK productive sectors: Efficiency or offshoring?

• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2018.03.127
• 发表时间: 2018-08
• 期刊: Applied Energy
• 影响因子: 11.2
• 作者: L. Hardt;A. Owen;P. Brockway;M. Heun;J. Barrett;P. Taylor;T. Foxon

Household final energy footprints in Nepal, Vietnam and Zambia: composition, inequality and links to well-being

• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abd588
• 发表时间: 2021-02-01
• 期刊: ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Baltruszewicz, Marta;Steinberger, Julia K.;Owen, Anne
• 通讯作者: Owen, Anne

From rational to relational: How energy poor households engage with the British retail energy market

从理性到关系：能源贫困家庭如何参与英国零售能源市场

• DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2020.101765
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: Energy Research & Social Science
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Ambrosio-Albala P

Final energy footprints in Zambia: Investigating links between household consumption, collective provision, and well-being

• DOI: 10.1016/j.erss.2021.101960
• 发表时间: 2021-02-03
• 期刊: ENERGY RESEARCH & SOCIAL SCIENCE
• 影响因子: 6.7
• 作者: Baltruszewicz, Marta;Steinberger, Julia K.;Paavola, Jouni
• 通讯作者: Paavola, Jouni