Bringing the Mediterranean to Birmingham: impact and adaptation for 8-12 degrees of warming

将地中海带到伯明翰：8-12 度变暖的影响和适应

• 批准号: EP/R007365/1
• 负责人: Emma Ferranti
• 金额: $ 40.84万
• 依托单位: University of Birmingham
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Fellowship
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FR007365%2F1
• 关键词: Bringing; Mediterranean; Birmingham; impact; adaptation

Extreme weather causes damage to our infrastructure services such as energy supply, information and communications technology (ICT), transport, water supply, and more. Many of our infrastructure services are interdependent, and a failure in one sector leads to failure in other sectors. For example, failure of an electric substation due to extreme heat or flooding could lead to power cuts, reduced ICT services, and transport disruption because our road (eg. traffic lights) and railway networks need electricity to operate. Finding these infrastructure weak points that have a disproportionate impact across several infrastructure networks is essential for infrastructure resilience. Moreover, as our infrastructure has an operational lifetime of several decades or more we must act now to be prepared for future extreme weather. However, current adaptation plans are often done separately by each infrastructure sector (e.g. rail, ICT) and therefore by design do not consider infrastructure interdependencies.This proposal presents an alternative approach to adaptation planning that breaks down industry silos and uses H++ ("worst-case") extreme climate change scenarios. High emissions and H++ scenarios predict the equivalent of Mediterranean heat for Birmingham and the West Midlands in the future. This proposal will consider the impact that extreme heat would have on infrastructure of the region as a whole. Particularly, it will look for weak points that could cause multiple failures across several infrastructure sectors. The project will use best-practice examples of heat-resilient infrastructure from Mediterranean cities to identify potential adaptation strategies that could be used in the Midlands. Best practice examples will be those that deliver long-term sustainability and multiple benefits, such as urban greening, which can provide climate regulation to build heat resilience, but also improve air quality, provide sustainable urban drainage, and positively influence health and well-being. The weakest infrastructure links and examples of best practice will be shared with infrastructure operators/owners to facilitate holistic, evidence-based adaptation planning. The adaptation approach can be used in other cities and for other extreme weather types. Guidance documents will be created so the method can be applied nationally and internationally in different situations and regions. The library of best practice examples of sustainable heat-resilient infrastructure and heat adaptation measures will be available online for global dissemination. This proposal specifically addresses the LWEC challenge by applying a system-of-systems approach to develop heat resilient infrastructure at a city and regional scales. Birmingham is an excellent demonstrator; HS2 and the new terminus station will arrive in the city by 2026. 51,000 new homes are required for the growing population. It also faces multiple challenges that will be exacerbated by extreme heat including increasing demand for electricity and utilities, an urban heat island effect, and transport networks which are currently operating at capacity. Now is the time for effective adaptation planning before long-term decisions and irreversible infrastructure development are undertaken. Crucially, as the West Midlands moves to devolved government there is the opportunity for leading regional research like this to shape governance plans. Dr Emma Ferranti undertakes challenge-led research in urban climatology and infrastructure meteorology. She holds a NERC Knowledge Exchange Fellowship with networks including infrastructure operators, local authorities, planners, and professionals passionate about urban-greening. This Fellowship will enable her to establish a new multidisciplinary research area in decision-centric adaptation planning that utilises research excellence from the Schools of Engineering, and Geography, Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Birmingham.

极端天气会对我们的基础设施服务造成损害，例如能源供应、信息和通信技术 (ICT)、交通、供水等。我们的许多基础设施服务都是相互依存的，一个部门的失败会导致其他部门的失败。例如，由于酷热或洪水而导致变电站发生故障，可能会导致断电、ICT 服务减少以及交通中断，因为我们的道路（例如交通信号灯）和铁路网络需要电力来运行。找到这些对多个基础设施网络产生不成比例影响的基础设施薄弱点对于基础设施的弹性至关重要。此外，由于我们的基础设施的使用寿命长达几十年或更长时间，我们必须立即采取行动，为未来的极端天气做好准备。然而，当前的适应计划通常由每个基础设施部门（例如铁路、ICT）单独完成，因此在设计上没有考虑基础设施的相互依赖性。该提案提出了一种适应规划的替代方法，打破行业孤岛并使用 H++（“最坏情况”）极端气候变化情景。高排放和 H++ 情景预测未来伯明翰和西米德兰兹郡的热量相当于地中海的热量。该提案将考虑极端高温对该地区整体基础设施的影响。特别是，它将寻找可能导致多个基础设施部门出现多重故障的薄弱环节。该项目将利用地中海城市耐热基础设施的最佳实践示例，以确定可在中部地区使用的潜在适应策略。最佳实践示例将是那些能够带来长期可持续性和多重效益的实践，例如城市绿化，它可以提供气候调节以增强耐热能力，同时也可以改善空气质量，提供可持续的城市排水，并对健康和福祉产生积极影响。最薄弱的基础设施环节和最佳实践示例将与基础设施运营商/所有者分享，以促进全面的、基于证据的适应规划。这种适应方法可用于其他城市和其他极端天气类型。将创建指导文件，以便该方法可以在国内和国际上的不同情况和地区应用。可持续耐热基础设施和热适应措施的最佳实践示例库将在线提供，以供全球传播。该提案通过应用系统系统方法在城市和区域范围内开发耐热基础设施来专门解决 LWEC 挑战。伯明翰是一个出色的示范者； HS2 和新终点站将于 2026 年抵达该市。不断增长的人口需要 51,000 套新住房。它还面临着多重挑战，这些挑战将因极端高温而加剧，包括对电力和公用事业的需求不断增加、城市热岛效应以及目前满负荷运行的交通网络。现在是在做出长期决策和不可逆转的基础设施开发之前制定有效的适应规划的时候了。至关重要的是，随着西米德兰兹郡转向权力下放政府，就有机会领导此类区域研究来制定治理计划。艾玛·费兰蒂博士在城市气候学和基础设施气象学领域开展以挑战为主导的研究。她拥有 NERC 知识交流奖学金，网络包括基础设施运营商、地方当局、规划者和热衷于城市绿化的专业人士。该奖学金将使她能够利用伯明翰大学工程学院、地理学院、地球与环境科学学院的卓越研究成果，在以决策为中心的适应规划中建立一个新的多学科研究领域。

项目成果

Evaluation of Climate Change Resilience of Urban Road Network Strategies

• DOI: 10.3390/infrastructures7110146
• 发表时间: 2022-10
• 期刊: Infrastructures
• 影响因子: 2.6
• 作者: Siama Begum;Rachel S. Fisher;E. Ferranti;A. Quinn

Improving the climate resilience of infrastructure networks

提高基础设施网络的气候适应能力

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Chapman

Infrastructure resilience under a changing climate: the urgent need for engineers to act

气候变化下的基础设施恢复能力：工程师迫切需要采取行动

• DOI: 10.1680/jcien.24.00010
• 发表时间: 2024
• 期刊: Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Civil Engineering
• 作者: Dora J

Transport resilience to weather and climate: an interdisciplinary view from Rio de Janeiro

运输对天气和气候的适应能力：里约热内卢的跨学科观点

• DOI: 10.1680/jurdp.21.00006a
• 发表时间: 2022
• 期刊: Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Urban Design and Planning
• 作者: Ferranti E

Enhancing power distribution network operational resilience to extreme wind events

增强配电网络对极端风事件的运营弹性

• DOI: 10.1002/met.2127
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Meteorological Applications
• 影响因子: 2.7
• 作者: Donaldson D