Bringing the Mediterranean to Birmingham: impact and adaptation for 8-12 degrees of warming

极端天气对我们的基础设施服务造成损害，如能源供应、信息和通信技术(ICT)、运输、供水等。我们的许多基础设施服务是相互依存的，一个部门的失败会导致其他部门的失败。例如，由于酷热或洪水导致的变电站故障可能会导致停电、ICT服务减少和交通中断，因为我们的道路(例如。交通灯)，铁路网需要电力才能运行。找到这些对几个基础设施网络产生不成比例影响的基础设施薄弱环节，对于基础设施的弹性至关重要。此外，由于我们的基础设施有几十年或更长的运行寿命，我们现在必须采取行动，为未来的极端天气做好准备。然而，目前的适应计划往往是由每个基础设施部门(例如铁路、信息和通信技术)单独完成的，因此在设计上没有考虑基础设施的相互依赖。本提案提出了一种适应规划的替代方法，该方法打破了行业孤岛，并使用了H++(“最坏情况”)极端气候变化情景。高排放和H++情景预测，伯明翰和西米德兰兹郡未来的热度相当于地中海地区。这项提案将考虑极端高温对整个地区基础设施的影响。特别是，它将寻找可能导致多个基础设施部门发生多起故障的薄弱环节。该项目将使用地中海城市耐热基础设施的最佳实践范例，以确定可以在中部地区使用的潜在适应战略。最佳做法的例子将是那些可提供长期可持续性和多重好处的做法，如城市绿化，它可以提供气候调节以建立抗热能力，但也可以改善空气质量，提供可持续的城市排水，并对健康和福祉产生积极影响。将与基础设施运营商/所有者分享最薄弱的基础设施环节和最佳做法范例，以促进全面、循证的适应规划。这种适应方法可以在其他城市和其他极端天气类型中使用。将创建指导文件，以便该方法可以在国家和国际上适用于不同的情况和地区。可持续抗热基础设施和热适应措施的最佳做法范例资料库将在网上提供，供全球传播。该提案通过应用系统系统方法在城市和区域范围内开发耐热基础设施，专门解决了LWEC面临的挑战。伯明翰是一个很好的示范；HS2和新的终点站将在2026年到达该市。不断增长的人口需要5.1万套新住房。它还面临着多重挑战，极端高温将加剧这些挑战，包括对电力和公用事业的需求不断增加，城市热岛效应，以及目前正在满负荷运行的交通网络。现在是在作出长期决定和不可逆转的基础设施发展之前进行有效适应规划的时候了。至关重要的是，随着西米德兰兹郡向权力下放的转变，有机会像这样领导地区性研究来制定治理计划。Emma Ferranti博士从事城市气候学和基础设施气象学方面的挑战领导的研究。她与包括基础设施运营商、地方当局、规划者和热衷于城市绿化的专业人士在内的网络持有NERC知识交流奖学金。这项奖学金将使她能够在以决策为中心的适应规划方面建立一个新的多学科研究领域，利用伯明翰大学工程学院和地理、地球和环境科学学院的研究成果。

Extreme weather causes damage to our infrastructure services such as energy supply, information and communications technology (ICT), transport, water supply, and more. Many of our infrastructure services are interdependent, and a failure in one sector leads to failure in other sectors. For example, failure of an electric substation due to extreme heat or flooding could lead to power cuts, reduced ICT services, and transport disruption because our road (eg. traffic lights) and railway networks need electricity to operate. Finding these infrastructure weak points that have a disproportionate impact across several infrastructure networks is essential for infrastructure resilience. Moreover, as our infrastructure has an operational lifetime of several decades or more we must act now to be prepared for future extreme weather. However, current adaptation plans are often done separately by each infrastructure sector (e.g. rail, ICT) and therefore by design do not consider infrastructure interdependencies.This proposal presents an alternative approach to adaptation planning that breaks down industry silos and uses H++ ("worst-case") extreme climate change scenarios. High emissions and H++ scenarios predict the equivalent of Mediterranean heat for Birmingham and the West Midlands in the future. This proposal will consider the impact that extreme heat would have on infrastructure of the region as a whole. Particularly, it will look for weak points that could cause multiple failures across several infrastructure sectors. The project will use best-practice examples of heat-resilient infrastructure from Mediterranean cities to identify potential adaptation strategies that could be used in the Midlands. Best practice examples will be those that deliver long-term sustainability and multiple benefits, such as urban greening, which can provide climate regulation to build heat resilience, but also improve air quality, provide sustainable urban drainage, and positively influence health and well-being. The weakest infrastructure links and examples of best practice will be shared with infrastructure operators/owners to facilitate holistic, evidence-based adaptation planning. The adaptation approach can be used in other cities and for other extreme weather types. Guidance documents will be created so the method can be applied nationally and internationally in different situations and regions. The library of best practice examples of sustainable heat-resilient infrastructure and heat adaptation measures will be available online for global dissemination. This proposal specifically addresses the LWEC challenge by applying a system-of-systems approach to develop heat resilient infrastructure at a city and regional scales. Birmingham is an excellent demonstrator; HS2 and the new terminus station will arrive in the city by 2026. 51,000 new homes are required for the growing population. It also faces multiple challenges that will be exacerbated by extreme heat including increasing demand for electricity and utilities, an urban heat island effect, and transport networks which are currently operating at capacity. Now is the time for effective adaptation planning before long-term decisions and irreversible infrastructure development are undertaken. Crucially, as the West Midlands moves to devolved government there is the opportunity for leading regional research like this to shape governance plans. Dr Emma Ferranti undertakes challenge-led research in urban climatology and infrastructure meteorology. She holds a NERC Knowledge Exchange Fellowship with networks including infrastructure operators, local authorities, planners, and professionals passionate about urban-greening. This Fellowship will enable her to establish a new multidisciplinary research area in decision-centric adaptation planning that utilises research excellence from the Schools of Engineering, and Geography, Earth and Environmental Science at the University of Birmingham.