Assessment, Costing and enHancement of long lIfe, Long Linear assEtS (ACHILLES)

基础设施是我们经济和社会的基础，是最近推出的英国工业战略的十大支柱之一。长线性（岩土）资产（LLAs）是该基础设施的主要组成部分，也是长距离（例如公路和铁路斜坡，管道垫层，防洪结构）提供关键服务的基础。到2022年，中央政府的基础设施投资将增长近60%，达到每年220亿英镑（ONS）。这将支持发展新的基础设施和维修现有的基础设施。目前，英国有10200公里的防洪工事；高速公路8万公里；15800公里的铁路)。这些资产的故障是常见的（例如，2015年铁路网发生了143起土方工程故障，每周发生2起），导致的故障成本很高（例如，铁路网的紧急维修成本是计划工程的10倍，而计划工程的成本是维护成本的10倍），而且这些故障的脆弱性是显著的（748,000处房产每年发生洪水的几率至少为1 / 100；斜坡故障造成的脱轨是我们铁路面临的最大的基础设施相关风险）。然而，目前人们对失败的确切原因和时间知之甚少。这会导致意想不到的失败，造成严重的破坏和声誉损害。目前的设计和资产管理方法使这种情况永久化，因为它们是基于过去的经验，不能推断出未来的表现：基础设施陈旧，使用越来越频繁，并且受到越来越极端的天气模式的影响。总之，这些因素大大增加了将来发生故障的可能性，从而导致性能下降和服务质量下降。气候变化已被确定为推动这种变化的因素之一。这是一个令人兴奋的机会，将研究和技术的新进展与来自不同LLAs的设计和资产管理实践结合起来，以减少基础设施系统因恶化和未来变化而带来的风险。目前的技术可以估计未来可能导致交通基础设施斜坡失效的恶化速率，但很难扩大规模，不能捕捉到与所有LLAs相关的所有恶化驱动因素，在处理不确定性和异质性方面很差，并且缺乏对代表性现场数据的严格验证。不同的资产所有者可以从他们的网络中访问大量的故障和状态数据（最近数据捕获和存储技术的进步使其成为可能），但根据历史数据使用不同的方法来解决故障。ACHILLES提出了一项研究计划，将这些方法结合在一起，再加上能够严格使用网络数据的统计进步，以及评估设计、监测和缓解方案价值的经济学。我们的长期愿景是在智能设计、管理和维护的基础上，为英国的基础设施提供一致的、负担得起的和安全的服务。ACHILLES提出了一项计划，通过结合实验室/现场实验、数值建模和模拟、统计数据和成本效益分析，以及使其结果被LLA业主/运营商采用的活动来应对这一挑战：更深入地了解材料和资产劣化，以及如何建模和预测新的设计工具，以解释劣化；减轻从物质规模到资产规模恶化的战略制定决策框架，优先考虑设计、监测和/或干预措施，考虑异质性和不确定性，并告知适当的商业案例更好地理解基础设施决策过程中表征异质性和不确定性的重要性将数据分析纳入资产评估和监测的知识和工具

Infrastructure is fundamental to our economy and society, e.g. being one of the 10 pillars of the recently launched UK Industrial Strategy. Long linear (geotechnical) assets (LLAs) are a major component of this infrastructure and fundamental to the delivery of critical services over long distances (e.g. road & railway slopes, pipeline bedding, flood protection structures). Central government infrastructure investment will rise by almost 60% to £22 billion p.a. by 2022 (ONS). This will support both the development of new infrastructure, and the repair of existing infrastructure. At present, there are 10,200 km of flood defences in Great Britain; 80,000 km of highways; 15,800 km of railway). Failure of these assets is common-place (e.g. in 2015 there were 143 earthworks failures on Network Rail - >2 per week), the resulting cost of failure is high (e.g. for Network Rail, emergency repairs cost 10 times planned works, which cost 10 times maintenance), and vulnerability to these failures is significant (748,000 properties with at least a 1-in-100 annual chance of flooding; derailment from slope failure is the greatest infrastructure-related risk faced by our railways). However, the exact reasons for - and timing of - failure is, at present, poorly understood. This leads to unanticipated failures that cause severe disruption and damage to reputation. Current approaches to design and asset management perpetuate this situation as they are based on past experience, which cannot be extrapolated to future performance: the infrastructure is older, ever more intensively used and subject to increasingly extreme weather patterns. Together, these factors significantly increase the likelihood of failures in the future causing reduced performance and poorer service. Climate change has been identified as one of the factors driving this change.There is an exciting opportunity to bring together new advances in research and technology with design and asset management practices from different LLAs to reduce the risks posed to infrastructure systems by deterioration and future change. Current techniques can estimate future rates of deterioration that might lead to failure in transport infrastructure slopes, but are difficult to scale up, do not capture all drivers of deterioration relevant to all LLAs, are poor at dealing with uncertainty and heterogeneity, and lack rigorous validation against representative field data. Different asset owners have access to vast quantities of failure and condition data from their networks (recently enabled by technological advances in data capture and storage) but use different approaches to address failure based on historical data. ACHILLES proposes a research programme that brings these approaches together, coupled with statistical advances to enable rigorous use of network data, and economics to assess the value of design, monitoring and mitigation options. Our long-term vision is for the UK's infrastructure to deliver consistent, affordable and safe services, underpinned by intelligent design, management and maintenance. ACHILLES proposes a Programme to address this challenge by combining laboratory/field experimentation, numerical modelling and simulation, statistical data and cost benefit analysis, and activities to enable its outcomes to be adopted by LLA owners/operators:Deeper understanding of material and asset deterioration and how to model and predict New design tools to account for deterioration; and assessment tools to characteriseStrategies to mitigate deterioration from material to asset scale Decision-making framework to prioritise spending on design, monitoring and/or interventions that accounts for heterogeneity and uncertainty, and informs appropriate business casesBetter understanding of the importance of characterising heterogeneity and uncertainty for infrastructure decision making processesKnowledge and tools to incorporate data analytics into asset assessment and monitoring