Designing a resilient relief supply network for natural disasters in West Java Indonesia using optimisation-via-simulation: Relief-OpS

在这个项目中，我们将开发各种方法，在自然灾害发生后优化基本救济物品的运送。这些措施包括优化仓库位置；库存管理战略，特别是易腐救济物品的库存管理战略；以及可靠的灾后配送路线。优化将利用基于代理的仿真模型，我们将根据关键决策者的输入构建该模型，旨在模拟灾后救援工作的复杂性。《2015-2030年仙台减少灾害风险框架》高度重视灾害风险管理，承认风险管理和加强抗灾能力的重要性。在仙台框架的基础上，印尼政府制定了一项灾害风险管理的国家计划，该计划强调了印尼需要改善其对自然灾害的准备和反应。为了执行该计划，印度尼西亚设立了国家灾害管理委员会，监督若干区域灾害管理委员会。DRM活动分为四个阶段：缓解、准备、响应和恢复。根据印度尼西亚的国家计划，我们将研究重点放在准备阶段（在灾难发生之前进行的活动，以便进行更有效的响应活动，如预先定位救援物品库存）和反应阶段（在灾难发生后进行的活动，以减少其影响）。大多数DRM研究分别解决DRM的准备阶段和响应阶段，导致次优解。此外，解决方案往往只基于一种灾难。另一个差距是，大多数研究假设救济物品不易腐烂，救济分发协调良好，灾后立即知道需求和损失。我们对多重灾害情况的关注，结合了提供救援支持的多个组织的所有复杂性，将产生更现实的模型，填补DRM文献中的空白，并产生更大的影响。该研究还将先前的仿真优化方法扩展到多目标、多层次的问题。在这个项目中，我们将与西爪哇地区委员会合作，从指定决策支持系统的需求到开发实际的场景来评估我们的方法。之所以选择西爪哇省，是因为由于人口规模、人口密度、对印尼GDP的高贡献，以及它是爪哇岛稻米生产的中心（稻米是印尼的主要粮食），它在印度尼西亚具有最高的多重灾害风险。由于我们将实施国家备灾和救灾标准程序，其他区域委员会可以通过改变参数（例如地图、人口、基础设施）来定制决策支持系统，以适应其区域的特点。因此，我们还将组织一个从业者讲习班，介绍我们的研究结果，并为所有区域委员会提供使用决策支持系统的培训。决策支助系统也可用于培训目的，这将加强区域委员会官员的准备工作。最后，这个项目将在这个重要的研究领域建立能力。英国和印度尼西亚的研究助理将从定期的项目会议、与研究人员和科学顾问委员会成员的互动以及在南安普敦、Padjadjaran或英国和东南亚其他地方的相关培训中获益。我们还将为对OvS、ABS和DRM中的运筹学感兴趣的印尼研究人员组织一个研究研讨会

In this project, we will develop methods that optimise the delivery of essential relief items following a natural disaster. These include optimising warehouse locations; inventory management strategies particularly for perishable relief items; and robust routing for post-disaster distribution. The optimisation will make use of an agent based simulation model that we will build with input from key decision-makers, designed to mimic the complexities of post-disaster relief efforts.The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 puts a strong emphasis on Disaster Risk Management, acknowledging the importance of risk management and strengthening resilience against disasters. Based on the Sendai Framework, the Indonesian government produces a national plan for disaster risk management which highlights the needs for Indonesia to improve its preparedness and response to natural disasters. To execute the plan, Indonesia has established the national board for disaster management overseeing several regional boards for disaster management.DRM activities span four phases: mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Based on the Indonesian national plan, we focus our research on the preparedness phase (activities performed prior to disaster to allow more efficient response activities such as pre-positioning inventory of relief items) and the response phase (activities following a disaster to reduce its impact). The majority of research in DRM solves the preparedness and response phases of DRM separately, leading to suboptimal solutions. Furthermore, the solutions tend to be based on just one type of disaster. Another gap is that most research assumes that relief items are non-perishable, relief distribution is well coordinated, and demand and damages are known immediately after a disaster. Our focus on multi-disaster situations incorporating all of the complexities of multiple organisations providing relief support will result in more realistic models, filling the gaps in the literature in DRM and resulting in more impact. The research also extends previous Optimisation-via-Simulation methodology to multi-objective, multi-level problems.In this project, we will work with West Java regional board from specifying the requirements for the decision support system to developing realistic scenarios to evaluate our methods. West Java province is chosen because it has the highest multi-disaster risk in Indonesia due to the population size, population density, high contribution to Indonesian GDP and being the centre of rice production in Java island (rice is the main staple food in Indonesia). As we will implement the national standard procedures for disaster preparedness and response, the decision support system can be customised by other regional boards to suit the characteristics of their regions by changing the parameters (for example, map, demography, infrastructure). Therefore, we will also organise a practitioner workshop to present our findings and to provide training for all regional boards to use the decision support system. The decision support system can also be used for training purposes which will strengthen the preparedness of the regional board officials.Finally, this project will build capacity in this vital area of research. The research assistants in the UK and Indonesia will gain from regular project meetings, interactions with investigators and the scientific advisory board members, and relevant training in Southampton, Padjadjaran or other places in the UK and South East Asia. We will also organise a research workshop for Indonesian researchers who are interested in OvS, ABS and Operational Research in DRM