Mathematical Modelling for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Control in East Africa (MMIDD-EA)

基于计算机的传染病数学模型是了解疾病如何传播的重要工具。它们在设计有效的控制战略和政策方面也非常有用。东非地区是由细菌和病毒引起的新发和地方病的热点地区，包括那些从动物传播给人类的疾病（称为人畜共患病）。尽管数学建模有潜力应对该区域的公共卫生挑战，而且有相对廉价的计算能力和免费编程平台，但低收入和中等收入国家的学者和研究人员很少应用这些技能。相反，建模工作是由高收入国家的研究人员完成的，通常是针对威胁全球健康的疾病，如埃博拉病毒引起的流行病。我们的目标是建立一个以东非为基础的数学建模者网络，以建立技能和能力，使这项工作能够由对传染病传播和控制的社会、经济、地理和政治背景有更深入了解的当地研究人员针对该区域的重点传染病开展。为此，我们将组织三次活动。首先，我们将为肯尼亚的20人开发和开办传染病动力学数学建模的强化短期课程。将向驻东非的具有数学技能并对人类和动物传染病动力学和控制的定量方法感兴趣的研究人员寻求申请。竞争性选拔程序将优先考虑具有机构支持和与该地区相关的确定模型项目的候选人。该课程将以威康基金会（Wellcome Trust）支持的、安德鲁·康兰博士（剑桥大学）领导的传染病动力学数学建模寄宿课程为基础，并根据东非确定的需求进行修改。该课程将着重于使用免费软件R和Rstudio建立实用技能，并侧重于该地区重要的传染病。第二，课程参加者将获颁五项奖学金，以进一步发展他们的技能。每位学员将与来自剑桥大学或更广泛的课程教师（来自英国和非洲）的导师相匹配，导师将与他们一起发展他们的技能，并在选定的建模项目上进行合作。研究员将有机会在剑桥大学（或其他英国研究所，根据他们的项目和发展需要）度过长达3个月的时间，并有机会在内罗毕大学度过一段时间，并与他们的同伴互动。第三，我们将通过与该区域其他互补举措联系起来，支持建立东非传染病模型网络。这将提高这群人的自力更生能力，并有助于维持进一步的能力建设。

Computer-based mathematical modelling of infectious diseases is an essential tool to understanding how diseases spread. They can also be extremely useful in designing effective control strategies and policies. The East Africa region is a hotspot for emerging and endemic diseases caused by bacteria and viruses, including those spread from animals to humans (known as zoonoses). Despite the potential for mathematical modelling to address public health challenges in the region and the availability of relatively cheap computing power and free programming platforms, these skills are rarely applied by academics and researchers in low and middle income countries. Instead modelling work is done by researchers from high income countries and often for diseases threatening global health such as epidemics caused by the Ebola virus. We aim to develop a network of East-African based mathematical modellers to build skills and capacity so that this work can be performed for priority infectious diseases in the region and by local researchers, who have a superior understanding of the social, economic, geographic and political context of infectious disease spread and control. To do this we will organise three activities. First, we will develop and run an intensive short-course in mathematical modelling of infectious disease dynamics for 20 people in Kenya. Applications will be sought from researchers based in East Africa with skills in mathematics and an interest in quantitative approaches to infectious disease dynamics and control in humans and animals. A competitive selection procedure will prioritise candidates with both institutional support and defined modelling projects relevant to the region to carry forward. The course will be based upon the well-established and highly regarded Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease Dynamics residential course supported by the Wellcome Trust, led Dr Andrew Conlan (University of Cambridge) and modified to be appropriate to the needs identified in East Africa. The course will have a strong emphasis on building practical skills using the free software R and Rstudio, and focussed on infectious diseases that are important in the region. Second, five fellowships will be awarded to course attendees to enable them to further develop their skills. Each fellow will be matched to a mentor from the University of Cambridge or the broader course faculty (drawn from across the UK and Africa) who will work with them to develop their skills and collaborate on a selected modelling projects. The fellows will have the opportunity to spend up to 3 months in Cambridge (or other UK Institute, as befits their project and development needs) as well as the opportunity to spend time at the University of Nairobi and interact with their cohort. Third, we will support the development of an East African infectious disease modelling network, by linking with other complementary initiatives in the region. This will increase the self-reliance of the cohort and help to sustain further capacity building.