Mathematical Modelling for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Control in East Africa (MMIDD-EA)

东非传染病动态和控制的数学模型 (MMIDD-EA)

• 批准号: EP/T003650/1
• 负责人: Caroline Trotter
• 金额: $ 26.1万
• 依托单位: University of Cambridge
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FT003650%2F1
• 关键词: Mathematical; Modelling; Infectious; Disease; Dynamics

Computer-based mathematical modelling of infectious diseases is an essential tool to understanding how diseases spread. They can also be extremely useful in designing effective control strategies and policies. The East Africa region is a hotspot for emerging and endemic diseases caused by bacteria and viruses, including those spread from animals to humans (known as zoonoses). Despite the potential for mathematical modelling to address public health challenges in the region and the availability of relatively cheap computing power and free programming platforms, these skills are rarely applied by academics and researchers in low and middle income countries. Instead modelling work is done by researchers from high income countries and often for diseases threatening global health such as epidemics caused by the Ebola virus. We aim to develop a network of East-African based mathematical modellers to build skills and capacity so that this work can be performed for priority infectious diseases in the region and by local researchers, who have a superior understanding of the social, economic, geographic and political context of infectious disease spread and control. To do this we will organise three activities. First, we will develop and run an intensive short-course in mathematical modelling of infectious disease dynamics for 20 people in Kenya. Applications will be sought from researchers based in East Africa with skills in mathematics and an interest in quantitative approaches to infectious disease dynamics and control in humans and animals. A competitive selection procedure will prioritise candidates with both institutional support and defined modelling projects relevant to the region to carry forward. The course will be based upon the well-established and highly regarded Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Disease Dynamics residential course supported by the Wellcome Trust, led Dr Andrew Conlan (University of Cambridge) and modified to be appropriate to the needs identified in East Africa. The course will have a strong emphasis on building practical skills using the free software R and Rstudio, and focussed on infectious diseases that are important in the region. Second, five fellowships will be awarded to course attendees to enable them to further develop their skills. Each fellow will be matched to a mentor from the University of Cambridge or the broader course faculty (drawn from across the UK and Africa) who will work with them to develop their skills and collaborate on a selected modelling projects. The fellows will have the opportunity to spend up to 3 months in Cambridge (or other UK Institute, as befits their project and development needs) as well as the opportunity to spend time at the University of Nairobi and interact with their cohort. Third, we will support the development of an East African infectious disease modelling network, by linking with other complementary initiatives in the region. This will increase the self-reliance of the cohort and help to sustain further capacity building.

基于计算机的传染病数学建模是了解疾病如何传播的重要工具。它们在设计有效的控制战略和政策方面也极为有用。东非地区是由细菌和病毒引起的新发和地方性疾病的热点地区，包括从动物传播给人类的疾病（称为人畜共患病）。尽管数学建模在解决该地区公共卫生挑战方面具有潜力，而且可以获得相对便宜的计算能力和免费编程平台，但中低收入国家的学者和研究人员很少应用这些技能。相反，建模工作是由来自高收入国家的研究人员完成的，通常是针对威胁全球健康的疾病，如埃博拉病毒引起的流行病。我们的目标是建立一个东非数学建模者网络，以培养技能和能力，使这项工作能够针对该地区的重点传染病进行，并由当地研究人员进行，他们对传染病传播和控制的社会，经济，地理和政治背景有上级了解。为此，我们将开展三项活动。首先，我们将在肯尼亚为20人开发和举办传染病动态数学建模的强化短期课程。申请将寻求来自东非的研究人员，他们具有数学技能，并对人类和动物传染病动态和控制的定量方法感兴趣。竞争性甄选程序将优先考虑得到机构支持和与该区域有关的明确建模项目的候选人。该课程将基于由惠康信托基金支持的传染病动力学住宅课程的完善和高度重视的数学建模，由Andrew Conlan博士（剑桥大学）领导，并修改为适合东非确定的需求。该课程将重点关注使用免费软件R和Rstudio建立实用技能，并专注于该地区重要的传染病。第二，将向参加课程的人员颁发五项研究金，使他们能够进一步发展自己的技能。每个研究员将与来自剑桥大学或更广泛的课程教师（来自英国和非洲各地）的导师相匹配，他们将与他们合作，发展他们的技能，并在选定的建模项目上进行合作。研究员将有机会在剑桥（或适合其项目和发展需求的其他英国研究所）度过长达3个月的时间，并有机会在内罗毕大学度过一段时间，并与他们的同龄人互动。第三，我们将支持建立一个东非传染病模型网络，与该区域其他互补倡议建立联系。这将提高这一群体的自力更生能力，并有助于维持进一步的能力建设。