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CBET-EPSRC: Efficient Surrogate Modeling for Sustainable Management of Complex Seawater Intrusion-Impacted Aquifers

CBET-EPSRC：受海水入侵影响的复杂含水层可持续管理的高效替代建模

基本信息

批准号：
EP/T018542/1
负责人：
Domenico Bau
金额：
$ 40.1万
依托单位：
University of Sheffield
依托单位国家：
英国
项目类别：
Research Grant
财政年份：
2020
资助国家：
英国
起止时间：
2020 至无数据
项目状态：
未结题

来源：
https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FT018542%2F1
关键词：
CBET EPSRC Efficient Surrogate Modeling

项目摘要

The overarching goal of the proposed research is the sustainable management of water resources in coastal regions with diverse geological, hydro-technical and governance settings. Pressures on water resources in coastal regions are already great and are expected to intensify due to increasing populations, standards of living and impacts from climate change and sea level rise (SLR). We will focus on coastal areas where aquifer over-drafting has caused seawater intrusion (SWI), thus deteriorating groundwater quality, and where SLR is expected to further reduce availability of fresh groundwater. Solutions to these problems will involve combinations of more efficient pumping schemes, demand reduction, and technological interventions such as desalination. However, determining optimal solutions for these problems poses extreme computational demands. This project will greatly advance the development and application of simulation-optimization (SO) by developing computationally efficient, robust, and accurate surrogate models for coastal groundwater systems.The limited literature on SO and surrogate modeling in SWI problems has focused on simplified hydrogeological settings and mathematical representations of management strategies. However, realistic SWI problems involve hydrogeological complexities, including discrete lithological facies, faults and fractures, saltwater-freshwater mixing zone dynamics, and surface-water groundwater interactions, as well as nonlinear objective functions and continuous and discrete decision variables to represent a wide range of engineering components. We hypothesize that these hydrogeologic and management features determine the building of accurate and efficient surrogates; and accurate surrogate SO models for SWI problems can be at least an order of magnitude faster than full-scale models. The reduced computational cost allows to investigate a broader range of SLR and climate change impacts and a wider range of management responses to these impacts. The innovative aspects of this research are: (a) development of a systematic approach for building robust surrogates by testing against full-scale SO models on simple to complex problems; (b) assessment of tradeoffs between surrogate model accuracy and computational efficiency across a range of hydrogeologic and management settings; (c) identification of robust management schemes for managing coastal groundwater resources in three "end-member" case study aquifers; and (d) collaboration with water management agencies to develop useful scenarios, optimization frameworks, and model output. The three test aquifers (Santa Barbara, California; Biscayne, Florida; and San Salvador Island, The Bahamas) have diverse hydrogeologic and management characteristics and well-calibrated groundwater flow models. The project objectives are: (a) develop SO-SWI-SLR test problems to provide robust evaluation of model surrogates; (b) formulate management objectives and constraints based on management of the test case aquifers, and identify scenarios relevant to the test cases; (c) program, train, and evaluate the performance of "data-driven" and "model-driven" surrogates to identify optimal management schemes for the test case aquifers, a range of SLR rates, climatology, and groundwater demand scenarios. This work will build on our US-UK group's complementary experience simulating SLR and climate impacts on SWI and in developing SO models for other groundwater problems.

拟议研究的总体目标是对具有不同地质、水利技术和治理环境的沿海地区水资源进行可持续管理。沿海地区水资源面临的压力已经很大，而且由于人口增加、生活水平提高以及气候变化和海平面上升 (SLR) 的影响，预计这种压力还会加剧。我们将重点关注含水层过度采水导致海水入侵（SWI）从而导致地下水质量恶化的沿海地区，以及SLR预计将进一步减少地下水可用量的地区。这些问题的解决方案将涉及更有效的抽水方案、减少需求以及海水淡化等技术干预措施的结合。然而，确定这些问题的最佳解决方案提出了极高的计算要求。该项目将通过开发计算高效、稳健且准确的沿海地下水系统替代模型，极大地推进模拟优化 (SO) 的开发和应用。关于 SO 和 SWI 问题中的替代模型的有限文献主要集中在简化的水文地质设置和管理策略的数学表示上。然而，现实的 SWI 问题涉及水文地质复杂性，包括离散岩性相、断层和裂缝、咸水-淡水混合区动力学、地表水-地下水相互作用，以及代表各种工程组件的非线性目标函数和连续和离散决策变量。我们假设这些水文地质和管理特征决定了准确有效的替代物的构建； SWI 问题的准确替代 SO 模型至少比全尺寸模型快一个数量级。计算成本的降低使得能够调查更广泛的 SLR 和气候变化影响以及更广泛的管理对这些影响的响应。这项研究的创新之处在于：(a) 开发一种系统方法，通过针对简单到复杂问题的全面 SO 模型进行测试来构建稳健的替代项； (b) 评估一系列水文地质和管理环境中替代模型准确性和计算效率之间的权衡； (c) 确定管理三个"最终成员"案例研究含水层沿海地下水资源的强有力的管理计划； (d) 与水管理机构合作开发有用的情景、优化框架和模型输出。三个测试含水层（加利福尼亚州圣巴巴拉、佛罗里达州比斯坎和巴哈马圣萨尔瓦多岛）具有不同的水文地质和管理特征以及经过良好校准的地下水流模型。项目目标是： (a) 开发 SO-SWI-SLR 测试问题，以提供对模型替代物的稳健评估； (b) 根据测试案例含水层的管理制定管理目标和限制，并确定与测试案例相关的情景； (c) 规划、培训和评估“数据驱动”和“模型驱动”替代物的性能，以确定测试案例含水层、一系列 SLR 率、气候学和地下水需求情景的最佳管理方案。这项工作将建立在我们的美英小组模拟 SLR 和气候对 SWI 影响以及开发其他地下水问题 SO 模型的互补经验的基础上。