Theory of Change Observatory on Disaster Resilience

干旱等人道主义灾难使撒哈拉以南非洲约1000万人面临粮食、水和能源不安全的问题。除了人道主义后果之外，洪水等灾害还增加了投资风险，因为在发展中国家建立了诸如污水处理厂之类的“搁浅资产”。全球气候模式可用于确定灾害风险的地理分布，但无法具体说明事件的区域强度、频率和持续时间。在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区，模型预测结果与干旱现实之间的差异被称为“东非气候悖论”。由于模型不一致，投资者和决策者很难预先得到即将发生的事件的警告，并在事件发生时做出反应。然而，最近的两种政策趋势融合在一起，增强了网络有效灾害应对的潜力：(a)扩大了区域预警系统（REWS）， (b)对开放数据平台的需求日益增长，以加强决策过程的问责制。例如，非洲数据共识决定强调开放数据网络的作用，通过更好地组织数据和模型来支持连贯的决策。从科学的角度来看，基于Agent的建模也开始更有力地倡导利益相关者参与开发和校准模型。在这方面，我们之前对可持续发展目标6.3的废水回用效率指数（WREI）进行的试点研究表明，缩小模型在推进循环经济途径方面具有潜力，例如具有减轻灾害风险潜力的废水回收。因此，“变化理论观测站”项目的总体目标将是提高区域开发、试点测试和验证区域气候模型的能力，通过以下方式实现对干旱和洪水风险影响的预测、评估和响应：（目标1）基于分散数据处理和重用原则开发基于地点的观测站（工作包（WP） 1,4）；（目标2）协同策划与设计聚焦于降尺度与耦合的灾害风险监测稳健模型的区域研究（WP2,3）；（目标3）试点测试和验证复合指数作为知识转化的一种手段，目的是建立一个灾害恢复能力的变化理论（WP5）。

Humanitarian disasters such as droughts expose approximately 10 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa to food, water and energy insecurity. Besides the humanitarian consequences disasters such as floods also heighten investment risks due to creation of "stranded assets" such as wastewater treatment plants in developing countries. Global climate models can be used to identify the geographical distribution of disaster risk but without being able to specify the regional intensity, frequency and duration of events. In Sub-Saharan Africa the difference between what models forecast and the reality of dryness has come to be known as the "East Africa Climate paradox". Because of model inconsistency, it is difficult forinvestors and decision makers to be forewarned about impending events and to respond when they occur. Two recent policy trends have however converged to enhance the potential for Cyber-enabled Effective Disaster Response: (a) the expansion of Regional Early Warning Systems (REWS) and (b) a growing demand for open data platforms to enhance accountability of decision-making processes. For instance, the Africa Data Consensus (ADC) resolved to emphasize the role of open data networks to support coherent decisionmaking through better organization of data and models. From a scientific standpoint Agent Based Modelling has also begun to advocate more forcefully for engagement of stakeholders to develop and calibrate models. In this regard, our prior research to pilot-test the Wastewater Reuse Effectiveness Index (WREI) for Sustainable Development Goal 6.3 revealed the potential of down-scaled models to advance circular economy pathways, such as wastewater recycling with potential to mitigate disaster risk.The overall aim of the Theory of change Observatory project will therefore be to enhance regional capacity to develop, pilot-test and validate regional climate models that enables the prediction, assessment and response to effects of droughts and flood risk by:(Obj 1) Developing a place-based observatory based on principles of dispersed data handling and reuse (Work Package (WP) 1,4);(Obj 2) Co-curating and co-designing regional research that focuses on down-scaling and coupling robust models of disaster risk monitoring (WP2,3); and(Obj 3) Pilot-testing and validating composite indices as a means of knowledge translation with the objective of building a theory of change on disaster resilience (WP5).