Scenarios for the development of smart grids in the UK

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Smart Grids (SGs) offer clear potential to contribute to UK policy goals of a transition to a low-carbon economy, energy security and affordability by transforming the ways we produce, deliver and consume energy, and potentially our conception of these services. As yet, there is little in-depth research into what factors might influence this potential, how such a grid can develop from today to 2050 and who might be the winners and losers in this process. Given the strength of scenarios for organising economic, technological, competitive, political, and societal information and translating it into a framework for decision-making, they are well suited for analysing and informing SG development. Existing scenarios highlight social, economic, policy, and technological drivers of change within energy and related sectors; however little work to date has examined the roles and priorities of different actors, spatial variation (e.g., urban/rural, existing energy infrastructure) or behavioural issues. A significant innovation of this project will be to incorporate these important dimensions into specific SG scenarios, and to include stakeholders' assessments of the uncertainties and key indicators associated with SG development. This complex, socio-technical topic demands a multidisciplinary team and an innovative combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Accordingly, our team combines expertise from across social, policy and engineering sciences with critical skills in SG analysis, stakeholder engagement, and scenario development techniques. In two interrelated work packages, we will:1) Identify key steps likely to determine the future shape of SG at the upstream level, together with socio-economic, behavioural, technological and environmental factors influencing the uptake of technologies at the end user level. These will be identified via: systematic review of UK and international literatures; case study analysis of SG demonstration projects (including interviews with key actors); development of initial scenario outlines; and Policy Delphi study to identify and evaluate key scenario dimensions and indicators. 2) Develop a range of SG scenarios (both quantitatively modelled and qualitatively narrated), and subsequently evaluate and refine these through expert and public workshops. This will involve elements of backcasting and forecasting. Our iterative scenario development process involves: devising scenario outlines (broad descriptions of 2050 end point) and pathways between now and 2050; creating narratives and conducting spatial-temporal modelling of pathways; and refining scenarios through stakeholder engagement. The process is underpinned by our attention to i) critical transition points within each scenario, and ii) spatial differences within the UK energy system. Rather than assuming a homogeneous UK energy system, we will take into account differences in demographics, energy service demands, and users' engagement with the energy system. We believe that any scenario failing to recognise these spatial differences and contingencies will have limited value to decision makers. We will engage with stakeholders at three levels throughout the project: a) the project advisory group (including academic, utility and other business representatives, policymakers and NGOs), b) wider experts (in expert workshops and a Policy Delphi survey) and c) public workshops. This early engagement with the public is vital to understand societal acceptance of path-breaking and potentially controversial technologies as the complexity of SG systems demands that the interaction of different actors be endogenously built into the scenario development, rather than merely part of a validation process. By taking into account specific system actors, their motivations, agency and the networks between them, we aim to add strategic value to our scenarios.