COVID-19: Fast multi-shot epidemic interventions for post lockdown Covid-19 mitigation: Open-loop mitigation strategies

COVID-19：锁定后缓解 Covid-19 的快速多点流行病干预措施：开环缓解策略

• 批准号: EP/V018450/1
• 负责人: Robert Shorten
• 金额: $ 14.43万
• 依托单位: Imperial College London
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2020 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FV018450%2F1
• 关键词: COVID; 19; Fast; multi; shot

The objective of this 4-month SPRINT is to design and validate new exit-strategies from the current lockdown policy that actively suppress COVID-19, while allowing significant economic activity. Currently proposed exit-strategies suggest that intermittent lockdowns, in addition to contact tracing, masking, and other measures, may be necessary until an effective vaccine is found. Most of the these propose using data-driven feedback signals, such as hospital admissions, to initiate lockdowns, with a key design consideration being the capacity of the healthcare system. The difficulty with this approach is timing. Intervene too early, and one simply shifts the peak of ill people to a later date, whereas too late an intervention will not limit the peak of infections. The issue of timing is exacerbated by the virus having up to a 14-day incubation period and an initial exponential growth rate. Thus, the problem of observing the true state of the epidemic, in the face of exponential growth, makes the effectiveness of any data-driven feedback policy extremely sensitive to the timing of intervention. From a classical perspective, controlling locally unstable systems, as this is, with time-varying time-delays, is known to be a frontier problem in control engineering. Our suggestion is to circumvent this difficulty by developing periodic open-loop lockdown strategies over short timescales. Such policies, will help suppressing the virus and allow predictable periodic periods of lockdown, thereby facilitating economic activity. The policies will be validated on advanced, realistic epidemiological mathematical models and data, and will be developed for national and international compartmental scenarios.

这个为期4个月的SPRINT的目标是设计和验证新的退出策略，以摆脱目前积极抑制COVID-19的封锁政策，同时允许重要的经济活动。目前提出的退出策略表明，在找到有效疫苗之前，除了接触者追踪、掩蔽和其他措施外，可能还需要间歇性封锁。其中大多数建议使用数据驱动的反馈信号（如医院入院）来启动封锁，关键的设计考虑因素是医疗保健系统的能力。这种方法的困难在于时机。干预得太早，只会把患病高峰推迟到更晚的日期，而干预得太晚则不会限制感染高峰。该病毒潜伏期长达14天，最初呈指数级增长，这加剧了时间问题。因此，面对指数级增长，观察疫情真实状况的问题，使得任何数据驱动的反馈政策的有效性对干预的时机极为敏感。从经典的角度来看，控制具有时变时滞的局部不稳定系统是控制工程中的一个前沿问题。我们的建议是通过在短时间内制定定期开环锁定策略来规避这一困难。这些政策将有助于抑制病毒，并允许可预测的周期性封锁，从而促进经济活动。这些政策将在先进的、现实的流行病学数学模型和数据上得到验证，并将根据国家和国际区域情景制定。

项目成果

A comparison of centrality measures and their role in controlling the spread in epidemic networks

• DOI: 10.1080/00207179.2023.2204969
• 发表时间: 2021-07
• 期刊: International Journal of Control
• 影响因子: 2.1
• 作者: Ekaterina Dudkina;M. Bin;Jane Breen;E. Crisostomi;P. Ferraro;Stephen J. Kirkland;Jakub Marecek;R. Murray-Smith;T. Parisini;L. Stone;S. Yilmaz;R. Shorten

Kemeny-based testing for COVID-19.

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0242401
• 发表时间: 2020
• 期刊: PloS one
• 影响因子: 3.7
• 作者: Yilmaz S;Dudkina E;Bin M;Crisostomi E;Ferraro P;Murray-Smith R;Parisini T;Stone L;Shorten R
• 通讯作者: Shorten R

Hysteresis-based supervisory control with application to non-pharmaceutical containment of COVID-19.

• DOI: 10.1016/j.arcontrol.2021.07.001
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: Annual reviews in control
• 影响因子: 9.4
• 作者: Bin M;Crisostomi E;Ferraro P;Murray-Smith R;Parisini T;Shorten R;Stein S
• 通讯作者: Stein S

Post-lockdown abatement of COVID-19 by fast periodic switching.

通过快速周期性切换减少Covid-19。

• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008604
• 发表时间: 2021-01
• 期刊: PLoS computational biology
• 影响因子: 4.3
• 作者: Bin M;Cheung PYK;Crisostomi E;Ferraro P;Lhachemi H;Murray-Smith R;Myant C;Parisini T;Shorten R;Stein S;Stone L
• 通讯作者: Stone L