Towards net-zero carbon buildings: tackling uncertainty when predicting the carbon footprint of construction products and whole buildings

迈向净零碳建筑：在预测建筑产品和整个建筑的碳足迹时解决不确定性

• 批准号: EP/V047027/1
• 负责人: Stephen Allen
• 金额: $ 43.88万
• 依托单位: University of Bath
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2021 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FV047027%2F1
• 关键词: Towards; net; zero; carbon; buildings

To counter significant levels of climate change and biodiversity loss, the UK and numerous other countries have set targets for "net-zero" greenhouse gas emissions. Rapid reductions in the built environment are crucial, since it drives 42% of global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. To achieve net-zero carbon buildings, we must reduce both: 1. OPERATIONAL CARBON - the emissions caused by a building's operational use2. EMBODIED CARBON - the emissions caused by 'everything else', such as the manufacturing of materials, transportation to site, onsite construction, refurbishment, and disposal. Given the huge amount of construction required for new build and retrofit around the world, it is critical that embodied carbon is addressed, while we continue to tackle operational carbon.Indeed, the UK Government's 'Industrial Strategy: Construction Sector Deal' aims to halve the greenhouse gas emissions from the built environment by 2025, and to shift focus from operational to whole-life performance. Since May 2019, over 1,000 architecture and engineering practices have committed to reducing both embodied and operational carbon (these are together referred to as whole-life carbon; WLC). The Royal Institute of British Architects has set WLC targets for 2030 and 2050 in its 'Climate Challenge', and the new London Plan will require all 'referable planning applications' to calculate and reduce WLC. However, there are persistent challenges to predicting embodied (and therefore whole-life) carbon, and thus minimising it in practice.In particular, uncertainty is typically ignored. At the levels of individual construction products and whole buildings, models are typically deterministic in nature, producing single-point estimates of WLC. In practice, it is then unclear how confident designers and engineers can be that one option will be lower-carbon than another. In other scientific disciplines, probabilistic approaches are more common, producing results with confidence intervals and using statistical significance tests when making comparisons. Such rigour is now essential for predicting the WLC of buildings, to ensure that low-carbon design intentions are achieved in reality.This research therefore aims to significantly improve the treatment of uncertainty when predicting the WLC of construction products and whole buildings. We will work with project partners across the supply-chain of low-carbon buildings, including product manufacturing, low-carbon policy, and the design of structures and buildings. At product level, we will improve the treatment and communication of uncertainty in Environmental Product Declarations. At building level, we will develop and test a probabilistic approach for predicting whole life carbon through the design process. To achieve impact, we will engage international initiatives and standards that will define industry practice into the future.

为了应对严重的气候变化和生物多样性的丧失，英国和其他许多国家已经设定了温室气体净零排放的目标。建筑环境的快速减少至关重要，因为它导致了全球与能源相关的二氧化碳排放的42%。为了实现净零碳建筑，我们必须减少两者：1.运营碳--建筑运营使用造成的排放2。具体化碳--由材料制造、运输到现场、现场施工、翻新和处置等“所有其他环节”所产生的排放。鉴于世界各地新建和翻新所需的巨大建筑量，在我们继续解决运营碳问题的同时，解决具体化碳问题至关重要。事实上，英国政府的《产业战略：建筑业协议》旨在到2025年将建成环境的温室气体排放量减半，并将重点从运营转向终身绩效。自2019年5月以来，超过1,000个建筑和工程实践致力于减少体现碳和运营碳(统称为全寿命碳；WLC)。英国皇家建筑师学会在其“气候挑战”中设定了2030年和2050年的WLC目标，新的伦敦计划将要求所有“可参考的规划申请”来计算和减少WLC。然而，预测具体化(因此是终生)碳，从而在实践中将其降至最低，仍然存在挑战。特别是，不确定性通常被忽视。在单个建筑产品和整个建筑的层面上，模型通常是确定性的，产生WLC的单点估计。在实践中，设计师和工程师对一种选择将比另一种选择更低碳的信心有多大，就不得而知了。在其他科学学科中，概率方法更常见，产生具有可信区间的结果，并在进行比较时使用统计显著性检验。这种严谨性对于预测建筑的WLC是至关重要的，以确保低碳设计意图在现实中得以实现。因此，本研究旨在显著提高建筑产品和整个建筑的WLC预测时不确定性的处理。我们将与整个低碳建筑供应链的项目合作伙伴合作，包括产品制造、低碳政策以及结构和建筑设计。在产品层面，我们将改善环境产品申报中不确定性的处理和沟通。在建筑层面，我们将开发和测试一种概率方法，通过设计过程预测整个生命周期的碳排放。为了产生影响，我们将参与国际倡议和标准，这些倡议和标准将定义未来的行业实践。

项目成果

Tackling uncertainty in life cycle assessments for the built environment: A review

解决建筑环境生命周期评估中的不确定性：回顾

• DOI: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2022.109941
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Building and Environment
• 影响因子: 7.4
• 作者: Marsh E

Understanding the global warming potential of circular design strategies: Life cycle assessment of a design-for-disassembly building

了解循环设计策略的全球变暖潜力：可拆卸建筑的生命周期评估

• DOI: 10.1016/j.spc.2023.03.001
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Sustainable Production and Consumption
• 影响因子: 12.1
• 作者: Roberts M