timeriskbeliefs: Beliefs, Time, and Risk Preferences

时间风险信念：信念、时间和风险偏好

• 批准号: EP/X021912/1
• 负责人: Daniel Gottlieb
• 金额: $ 131.53万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FX021912%2F1
• 关键词: timeriskbeliefs; Beliefs; Time; Risk; Preferences

This research proposal studies how people make decisions. The main focus is on the connections between individuals' expectations, risk aversion, and intertemporal substitution. Understanding these connections will shed light on several economic phenomena and clarify the restrictions and limitations of existing economic models.This research agenda will be developed in two lines of work. The first line will investigate how an individual's beliefs shape which choices the individual makes. We will study how different informational environments generate "psychological search frictions" and how these frictions differ from "real" search costs, traditionally studied by economists. Unlike search costs, psychological frictions depend on the information being collected and the payoffs involved. Psychological frictions provide an explanation for the empirical observation that individuals often fail to search for better options in high-stakes settings. We will also use this theory to study how the informational environment shapes people's willingness to start new businesses, take financial risks, and buy insurance.The second line of work will study how time and risk preferences relate to Stochastic Impatience, a behavioural property that generalises impatience to risky environments. We will study the restrictions that Stochastic Impatience imposes and test its validity with experiments. Our aim is to provide guidance on models and parameters used to fit Macroeconomic and Finance data and to open a new avenue for identification and testing.

该研究计划研究人们如何做出决策。主要关注的是个人期望、风险规避和跨期替代之间的联系。理解这些联系将阐明几种经济现象，并澄清现有经济模型的限制和局限性。本研究议程将分两条工作线进行。第一行将调查个人的信念如何影响个人做出的选择。我们将研究不同的信息环境如何产生“心理搜索摩擦”，以及这些摩擦与传统上由经济学家研究的“真实”搜索成本有何不同。与搜索成本不同，心理摩擦取决于所收集的信息和所涉及的回报。心理摩擦为经验观察提供了解释，即个人常常无法在高风险环境中寻找更好的选择。我们还将利用这一理论来研究信息环境如何影响人们创业、承担金融风险和购买保险的意愿。第二项工作将研究时间和风险偏好与随机不耐烦的关系，随机不耐烦是一种将不耐烦概括为风险环境的行为属性。我们将研究随机急躁所施加的限制，并通过实验检验其有效性。我们的目标是为用于拟合宏观经济和金融数据的模型和参数提供指导，并开辟一条新的识别和测试途径。