DISINF: The Distributional Consequences of Inflation

DISINF：通货膨胀的分配后果

• 批准号: EP/X025039/1
• 负责人: Ricardo Reis
• 金额: $ 218.93万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2022
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2022 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=EP%2FX025039%2F1
• 关键词: DISINF; Distributional; Consequences; Inflation

It is often said that inflation is costly because it redistributes from some agents in the economy to others. Yet, this is rarely measured, and its consequences in models with rich heterogeneity remain under-explored. This grant will advance knowledge on the distributional consequences of inflation, adding to existing work that focuses on household inequality, new insights on redistribution within the financial sector, between non-financial firms, and between the private and public sectors. First, it will use detailed microdata from the financial sector to measure what is the exposure of different groups to inflation risk, which institutions sell and buy inflation risk, and how this affects the differential pass-through of inflation to nominal interest rates. These redistributions can cause costly financial crisis and are often behind financial repression measures. Second, it will use models of non-financial firms that are differentially exposed to inflation risk and are likely to have their operations impacted by unexpected shocks. The heterogeneous impact of inflation across firms generate a new source of costs of inflation, as they lead to distortions in the allocation of inputs and production that are amplified by price rigidity. Third, the composition and maturity of the public debt redistributes risk between current generations and future ones. Empirically, the extent to which the government shifts inflation risk between itself and the private economy varies considerably over time, and this affects the cyclicality of the tightness of the government budget constraint as well as the incentives to inflate away the debt. For the central bank, inflation has a differential effect on the attractiveness of banknotes, public digital currency, and private digital currency, and this is turn determines the seignorage revenue that central banks earn and so the financial constraints that monetary policy faces in the pursuit of stable inflation.

人们经常说，通货膨胀代价高昂，因为它会从经济中的一些因素重新分配给其他因素。然而，这很少被衡量，其在具有丰富异质性的模型中的后果仍未得到充分研究。这笔赠款将促进人们对通货膨胀分配后果的了解，增加对家庭不平等的现有工作，对金融部门内部、非金融公司之间以及私营部门和公共部门之间的再分配提供新的见解。首先，它将使用来自金融部门的详细微观数据来衡量不同群体对通胀风险的敞口是什么，哪些机构出售和购买通胀风险，以及这如何影响通胀对名义利率的不同传递。这些再分配可能导致代价高昂的金融危机，而且往往是金融抑制措施的幕后推手。其次，它将使用非金融公司的模型，这些公司有不同的通胀风险敞口，它们的运营可能会受到意外冲击的影响。企业间通胀的异质性影响产生了新的通胀成本来源，因为它们导致投入和生产的分配扭曲，而价格僵化放大了这种扭曲。第三，公共债务的构成和期限在当代和未来几代人之间重新分配了风险。根据经验，随着时间的推移，政府在自身和私营经济之间转移通胀风险的程度会有很大不同，这会影响政府预算约束收紧的周期性，以及通过通胀消除债务的动机。对于央行来说，通胀对纸币、公共数字货币和私人数字货币的吸引力有不同的影响，这反过来又决定了央行赚取的铸币税收入，从而决定了货币政策在追求稳定通胀的过程中面临的金融约束。

项目成果

Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation

使用预期通胀指标的四个错误

• DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231033
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: AEA Papers and Proceedings
• 作者: Reis R

What can keep euro area inflation high?

是什么让欧元区通胀保持高位？

• DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad029
• 发表时间: 2023
• 期刊: Economic Policy
• 影响因子: 2.5
• 作者: Reis R