Working towards a stable and sustainable growth path - Centre For Macroeconomics ESRC Centres Transition Review

努力走向稳定和可持续的增长道路 - 宏观经济中心 ESRC 中心转型审查

• 批准号: ES/R009295/1
• 负责人: Ricardo Reis
• 金额: $ 125.25万
• 依托单位: London School of Economics and Political Science
• 依托单位国家: 英国
• 项目类别: Research Grant
• 财政年份: 2018
• 资助国家: 英国
• 起止时间: 2018 至 无数据
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gtr.ukri.org/projects?ref=ES%2FR009295%2F1
• 关键词: Working; towards; stable; sustainable; growth

Ten years after the onset of the financial crisis, the world still faces many macroeconomic challenges, such as increased inequality, low growth rates, low real interest rates, continued deleveraging, and a need for new regulation and policy tools to reduce the chance the world facing another economic crisis. The CFM brings together a diverse, but interconnected, set of institutions, which range from the policy making (Bank of England) through applied policy research (NIESR) to academia (LSE, University of Cambridge, University College London, and University of Oxford). This set of institutions creates a unique environment for imaginative, policy relevant, and intellectually robust research. Richer macroeconomic models capturing heterogeneity, inequality and endogenous business cycles.Recently, models and solution methods have been developed to study the interaction between heterogeneity and macroeconomic developments. A unifying theme in our research is the old Keynesian story of a recession being amplified by a downward spiral in which consumers who are facing uncertain job prospects and limited wealth to buffer negative income shocks prefer to hold on their money (precautionary savings) and firms who are facing uncertain demand for their products prefer not to hire. Recent empirical evidence has made clear that the observation of consumers sharply cutting back on consumption during bad and uncertain times is a much more important phenomenon than previously thought. In particular, it has been shown that there are many consumers who, although quite wealthy, cannot buffer unexpected negative shocks, because their wealth is in an illiquid form, namely houses. That is, there are also rich people who are financially constrained and act as 'hand-to-mouth' consumers. If there are more people who respond to negative developments by sharply reducing consumption increases because of imperfect insurance, then it is more important to incorporate this feature in business cycle models and not to rely on the representative agent paradigm, which relies on the assumption that consumers can perfectly self-insure.Richer macroeconomics with networks and interactions across sectors. The idea of network theory is to incorporate into economic models a good description of the actual network through which individuals and firms transact with each other. In such models, buyers (sellers) do not have free access to all sellers (buyers) in the economy, but only to a select number of (nearby) trading partners. The importance of such networks and the crucial role of some firms in such networks is understood in policy circles. For example, in the fall of 2008, the president of Ford Motor Co., Alan Mulally, requested government support for Ford's rivals General Motors and Chrysler. Survival of these competitors was important for Ford because their failures would result in the failures of their suppliers, which were essential for Ford being supplied with its necessary inputs.New policy tools for a new economic environment based on better macroeconomic models. The crisis has not only changed the way macroeconomists look at the world: it has also fundamentally changed economic policy. Monetary policies pursued during the financial crisis relied on new activities, such as quantitative easing (large scale interventions in particular financial markets) and forward guidance on future monetary policy decisions. These policies are still being pursued today and may become part of the standard set of monetary policy tools. Financial oversight has changed in terms of setting tougher standards and focusing on additional characteristics such as liquidity provision and leverage. Moreover, financial oversight has been extended to include macroprudential tools that consider the risks to the economy as a whole. At the CFM we use the new frameworks described above to consider policy tools in this new environment.

在金融危机爆发十年后，世界仍然面临许多宏观经济挑战，如不平等加剧、低增长率、低实际利率、持续的去杠杆化，以及需要新的监管和政策工具，以减少世界面临另一场经济危机的可能性。CFM汇集了一系列不同但相互关联的机构，从政策制定机构(英格兰银行)到应用政策研究机构(NIESR)，再到学术界(伦敦政治经济学院、剑桥大学、伦敦大学学院和牛津大学)。这套机构为富有想象力的、与政策相关的和智力健全的研究创造了一个独特的环境。更丰富的宏观经济模型捕捉了异质性、不平等和内生的商业周期。最近，人们开发了模型和求解方法来研究异质性和宏观经济发展之间的相互作用。在我们的研究中，一个统一的主题是古老的凯恩斯主义故事，即经济衰退被螺旋式下降放大，在螺旋式下降中，面临不确定就业前景和有限财富以缓冲负面收入冲击的消费者更愿意持有资金(预防性储蓄)，而面临产品需求不确定的公司则不愿招聘员工。最近的经验证据表明，观察到消费者在糟糕和不确定时期大幅削减消费，这是一个比之前认为的更重要的现象。特别是，已经证明，有许多消费者虽然相当富有，但无法缓冲意想不到的负面冲击，因为他们的财富是非流动性形式的，即住房。也就是说，也有一些有钱人，他们经济拮据，只能勉强糊口。如果有更多的人因为保险不完善而通过大幅减少消费增长来应对负面发展，那么更重要的是将这一特征纳入商业周期模型，而不是依赖于代表性的代理人范式，后者依赖于消费者可以完全自我保险的假设。通过网络和跨部门的互动来丰富宏观经济学。网络理论的理念是在经济模型中很好地描述个人和企业之间相互交易的实际网络。在这样的模型中，买方(卖方)不能自由接触经济中的所有卖方(买方)，而只能自由接触选定数量的(附近)贸易伙伴。政策界理解这种网络的重要性以及一些公司在这种网络中的关键作用。例如，2008年秋天，福特汽车公司总裁穆拉利请求政府支持福特的竞争对手通用汽车和克莱斯勒。这些竞争对手的生存对福特来说很重要，因为他们的失败将导致供应商的失败，而供应商的失败对福特获得必要的投入至关重要。基于更好的宏观经济模型的新经济环境的新政策工具。这场危机不仅改变了宏观经济学家看待世界的方式，还从根本上改变了经济政策。金融危机期间推行的货币政策依赖于新的活动，如量化宽松(特别是金融市场的大规模干预)和对未来货币政策决定的前瞻性指导。这些政策今天仍在执行，并可能成为标准货币政策工具的一部分。金融监管已经发生变化，制定了更严格的标准，并将重点放在流动性供应和杠杆等额外特征上。此外，金融监管已扩大到包括考虑整体经济风险的宏观审慎工具。在CFM，我们使用上述新框架来考虑这种新环境中的政策工具。

项目成果

When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases

财政乘数什么时候高？

• DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103852
• 发表时间: 2021
• 期刊: European Economic Review
• 影响因子: 2.8
• 作者: Berge T

Employment and the Collateral Channel of Monetary Policy

就业与货币政策的抵押渠道

• 发表时间: 2018
• 作者: Bahaj S.

Stagnation Traps

• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdx063
• 发表时间: 2018-07-01
• 期刊: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• 影响因子: 5.8
• 作者: Benigno, Gianluca;Fornaro, Luca
• 通讯作者: Fornaro, Luca

Income and Wealth Distribution in Macroeconomics: A Continuous-Time Approach

• DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdab002
• 发表时间: 2021-02-25
• 期刊: REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES
• 影响因子: 5.8
• 作者: Achdou, Yves;Han, Jiequn;Moll, Benjamin
• 通讯作者: Moll, Benjamin

The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve

通货膨胀率之谜：趋势通货膨胀的国际组成部分和菲利普斯曲线的平坦化

• 发表时间: 2021
• 作者: Ascari G