Multilevel Modelling of the Government's New School Performance Measures, 'Floor Standards' Target and 'Narrowing the Gap' Priority

政府每年公布学校成绩表，报告英国中学学生的成绩和进步。这些表格随后由媒体、网站和全国性报纸增刊转载。政府的目标是让学校负起责任，并使家长能够就送子女上学作出有意义的选择。政府的2010年学校白色文件概述了对这些表格的主要修改，这些修改现已在2011年学校成绩表中实施。首先，他们改变了衡量学生进步的方式。第二，他们引入了一个新的政府目标，要求所有学校在这些措施中达到“最低标准”。第三，他们把缩小最弱势学生与同龄人之间的成绩差距作为政府的一项新优先事项。这些变化具有重要的意义：未能达到政府新目标的“表现不佳”学校将面临被置于“特别措施”、被接管甚至关闭的风险。这些变化的高风险性质使得必须对这些变化进行严格审查，并开发和应用创新技术，以探索政府衡量学校表现的方式的潜在改进。这项建议将通过在对政府掌握的非常详细的学生和学校一级成绩数据进行分析的基础上开展一项方法和实质性研究方案来做到这一点。本提案的主要目标是：1.严格审查英格兰的学校绩效指标尽管新的学校绩效指标、目标和优先事项具有高风险性，但没有这样的审查。因此，我会详细解释每项措施背后的方法，探讨每项措施让使用者得出的结论，并解释不同的措施如何与不同的使用者（例如家长和政府）和不同的目的（例如学校选择和学校问责）相关。研究学校表现衡量的潜在改进我将使用统计模型来探讨新的学校表现衡量标准和政府目标，以及它们可能受到潜在统计限制的程度。例如，据了解，小规模学校的测量成绩每年波动很大，这仅仅是因为它们所依赖的学生人数很少。然而，政府的目标似乎没有认识到这一问题或它对学校和最终学生的未来的重要影响。然后，我将扩展拟议的模型，以探讨新的政府优先事项，并从统计上确定学校是否正在缩小最弱势学生与同龄人之间的成绩差距。这种分析是必要的第一步，试图确定哪些学校政策和做法可以带来这种变化。技能培训PEMENTI将通过由我的导师指导的阅读计划来发展我的统计建模和软件技能，并将通过参加外部培训研讨会和对该领域专家进行为期一周的学术访问来补充这一点。我将通过大学提供的培训课程，发展我的知识交流，媒体和公众参与技能。4.向学术界和非学术界传播研究成果研究所将在学术期刊上发表研究成果，并在国家和国际会议上发表。我将与第三部门的慈善机构合作，通过一个星期的安置。我将通过简短的研究简报会和新闻稿向教育部和非学术界人士宣传这项研究。最后，我将通过举办研讨会和提供在线培训材料，培训学术和其他研究人员在研究中使用的方法。

Each year, the Government publishes school performance tables that report the achievement and progress of pupils in English secondary schools. These tables are subsequently republished by the media, on websites and as supplements in national newspapers. The Government's aim is to hold schools accountable and to enable parents to make meaningful choices about where to send their children to school. The Government's 2010 Schools White Paper outlined major changes to these tables which have now been implemented in the 2011 school performance tables. First, they have changed the way they measure pupil progress. Second, they have introduced a new government target which requires all schools to pass 'floor standards' in these measures. Third, they have made it a new government priority that all schools narrow the performance gaps between their most disadvantaged pupils and their peers. These changes have important implications: 'underperforming' schools which fail the new government target will risk being placed in 'special measures', take-over, or even closure.The high-stakes nature of these changes make it imperative that they are critically reviewed and that innovative techniques are developed and applied to explore potential improvements to the way the Government measure school performances. This proposal will do this by pursuing a programme of methodological and substantive research based on analyses of the highly detailed pupil and school level performance data held by the Government. The main objectives of this proposal are to:1. CRITICALLY REVIEW SCHOOL PERFORMANCE MEASURES IN ENGLANDDespite the high-stakes nature of the new school performance measures, target and priority no such review exists. I will therefore carefully explain the methodology behind each measure, explore the conclusions that each measure allows users to draw, and explain how different measures are relevant to different users (e.g. parents and government) and for different purposes (e.g. school choice and school accountability).2. RESEARCH POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENTS TO SCHOOL PERFORMANCE MEASURESI will use statistical models to explore the new school performance measures and government target and the extent to which they might suffer from potential statistical limitations. For example, the measured performances of small schools are known to fluctuate greatly from year to year simply due to the small number of students upon which they are based. However, the government target appears not to recognise this issue or the important implications it has for schools' and ultimately pupils' futures.I will then extend the proposed models to explore the new government priority and to statistically identify whether schools are narrowing the performance gaps between their most disadvantaged pupils and their peers. Such analyses are a necessary first step in attempts to identify those school policies and practices that can bring about such changes.3. SKILLS DEVELOPEMENTI will develop my statistical modelling and software skills through a programme of reading guided by my mentor and will complement this by attending external training workshops and a one-week academic visit to an expert in this area. I will develop my knowledge exchange, media and public engagement skills through training courses provided by my university. 4. DISSEMINATE THE RESEARCH TO ACADEMICS AND NON-ACADEMICSI will publish the research in academic journals and present it at national and international conferences. I will collaborate with a third sector charity through a one-week placement. I will publicise the research to the Department for Education and non-academics through short research briefings and press releases. Finally, I will train academic and other researchers in the methods used in the research through running a workshop and by providing online training materials.