The Political Effects of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles on Conflict and Cooperation within and between States

该项目将研究最近和正在进行的科技（无人机）发展对部署无人机的国家冲突与合作前景的影响。在过去十年中，美国和英国对武装和非武装无人机（uav /drones）的使用急剧增加。从一系列公开来源收集的综合数据显示，迄今为止，针对敌方目标的空袭已超过1300次，造成近3000名叛乱分子和近500名平民死亡。从干预国家的角度来看，这些统计数据被认为是军事上成功对抗敌人的标志。然而，从这些打击目标的角度来看——无人机的使用远没有减少叛乱和恐怖主义的风险——每一次打击都证明了对美国/英国军队的暴力程度大大增加。只有在文化误解的背景下，才能理解对无人机袭击政治影响的这些相互冲突的评估；对于干预方来说，无人机代表了西方干预力量风险逐步降低的最新表现，而对于受无人机袭击影响的民众来说，它们代表了西方傲慢、技术傲慢、无懈可击以及排外主义信仰和价值观的不可接受的组合。因此，不同的价值观、信仰体系、叙述和历史背景导致了对美英无人机袭击是增加还是减少了干预方和目标方的安全的截然不同的解释。然而，提出这些要求和反要求所依据的证据存在很大争议，对这些数据进行的系统比较分析很少。这个项目试图纠正这种数据的缺乏，这样做回应了ESRC/AHRC-Dstl科学与安全呼吁的那一部分，该呼吁的重点是“提高我们利用科技发展来增加合作与协作的能力，作为预防未来冲突的一种手段”。因此，研究将在比较背景下调查对无人机使用的相互冲突的看法如何在渗透国境内以及干预国与无人机运行国之间形成冲突与合作的倾向。为了理解文化背景如何塑造对科技的相互冲突的看法，并探索无人机的使用在多大程度上产生了新的文化误解空间，从而导致冲突加剧，该项目采用了一个跨学科的理论框架，该框架植根于对政治行动和决策背景下的认知、情感和历史叙事构建的研究。通过利用这一框架，项目团队将调查无人机的使用是否建立和/或进一步加强了产生和再现暴力冲突的叙述。或者，它是否为缓和和结束冲突的谈判开辟了新的空间？因此，项目团队将寻求解决以下主要研究问题：一个国家在另一个行为体的领土上使用无人机会增加或减少这些行为体内部和之间的冲突与合作倾向吗？我们将以阿富汗、巴基斯坦、也门和索马里的案例为重点，采用访谈、焦点小组、文献回顾和开源数据分析作为主要研究方法，进行系统的比较案例研究。该项目将产生若干产出，包括个案研究简报和在期刊上发表文章。这些将构成我们影响战略的实质性基础的一部分，该战略旨在为英国和国际无人机政策的形成做出贡献，该政策在促进安全方面是合法的、道德的、合法的和有效的。

This project will examine the impact of a recent and on-going development in science and technology (drones) on prospects for conflict and cooperation in countries where drones are deployed. The use of armed and unarmed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs/drones) by the United States and the United Kingdom has dramatically increased over the past decade. Aggregate data compiled from a range of open-access sources suggests that over 1,300 strikes have been carried out to date against enemy targets, killing almost 3,000 insurgents and nearly 500 civilians. From the vantage point of the intervening states, these statistics are defended as markers of military success against enemy. However, from the perspective of the targets of these strikes - far from the use of drones reducing the risks of insurgency and terrorism - each strike justifies substantially increasing the level of violence against US/UK forces. These clashing assessments of the political effects of drone strikes can only be understood in a context of cultural misunderstandings; for the intervening side, drones represent the latest manifestation of progressive reduction of risk to Western intervening forces while for the populations affected by drone strikes, they represent the unacceptable combination of Western arrogance, technological hubris, invulnerability, and exclusivist beliefs and values.Consequently, different values, belief systems, narratives, and historical contexts lead to radically different interpretations of whether US/UK drone strikes are increasing or decreasing the security of both the intervening and targeted actors. Yet, the evidence on which these claims and counter-claims are being made is highly contested, and there is very little systematic comparative analysis of the data. This project seeks to rectify this lack of data and in so doing responds to that part of the ESRC/AHRC-Dstl Science and Security call which focuses on 'Improving our ability to use S&T developments to increase co-operation and collaboration as a means of preventing future conflict'. Consequently, research will investigate in a comparative context how conflicting perceptions of the use of drones shapes the propensities for conflict and cooperation both within the territory of the penetrated state and between the intervening state and the state in which the drones are operating.To understand how conflicting perceptions of S&T are shaped by cultural context, and to explore how far the use of drones has generated new spaces of cultural misunderstanding leading to increased conflict, the project adopts an interdisciplinary theoretical framework rooted in the study of cognition, emotions, and the construction of historical narratives in the context of political action and decision-making. By utilising this framework, the project team will investigate whether the use of drones has established and/or further strengthened narratives which produce and reproduce violent conflict. Or alternatively, has it opened up new spaces for negotiations to mitigate and end conflicts? Thus, the project team will seek to address the following primary research question: Does the use of drones by a state on the territory of another actor increase or decrease the propensities for conflict and cooperation both within and between these actors?Focusing on the cases of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia we will conduct systematic comparative case study research, utilising interviews, focus groups, literature review and open-source data analysis as our principle research methods.The project will produce a number of outputs, including case study briefing papers and articles in refereed journals. These will form part of the substantive basis of our impact strategy that seeks to contribute to the shaping of a UK and international drone policy that is legal, ethical, legitimate, and effective in promoting security.